Philippe Andrade
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View article: Higher-order Moment Inequality Restrictions for SVARs
Higher-order Moment Inequality Restrictions for SVARs Open
We introduce a method that exploits some non-Gaussian features of structural shocks to identify structural vector autoregression (SVAR) models. More specifically, we propose combining inequality restrictions on the higher-order moments of …
View article: Household Beliefs about Fiscal Dominance
Household Beliefs about Fiscal Dominance Open
We study beliefs about fiscal dominance using a survey of German households. We first design and conduct a randomized controlled trial to identify how fiscal news impacts individuals' debt-to-GDP and inflation expectations. We document tha…
View article: Household Beliefs about Fiscal Dominance
Household Beliefs about Fiscal Dominance Open
View article: Household Beliefs about Fiscal Dominance
Household Beliefs about Fiscal Dominance Open
View article: The Aggregate Effects of Sectoral Shocks in an Open Economy
The Aggregate Effects of Sectoral Shocks in an Open Economy Open
We study the aggregate effects of sectoral productivity shocks in a multisectoral New Keynesian open-economy model that allows for asymmetric input-output linkages, both within and between countries, as well as for heterogeneity in sectora…
View article: Identification Using Higher-Order Moments Restrictions
Identification Using Higher-Order Moments Restrictions Open
We exploit inequality restrictions on higher-order moments of the distribution of structural shocks to sharpen their identification. We show that these constraints can be treated as necessary conditions and used to shrink the set of admiss…
View article: Identification Using Higher-Order Moments Restrictions
Identification Using Higher-Order Moments Restrictions Open
View article: Do Multisectoral New Keynesian Models Match Sectoral Data?
Do Multisectoral New Keynesian Models Match Sectoral Data? Open
We document empirical regularities of disaggregated inflation and consumption and study whether multisectoral New Keynesian models can explain them. We focus on higher moments of the inflation and consumption growth distributions as well a…
View article: Should the ECB Adjust Its Strategy in the Face of a Lower r*?
Should the ECB Adjust Its Strategy in the Face of a Lower r*? Open
We address this question using an estimated New Keynesian DSGE model of the Euro Area with trend inflation, imperfect indexation, and a lower bound on the nominal interest rate. In this setup, a decrease in the steady-state real interest r…
View article: The financial content of inflation risks in the euro area
The financial content of inflation risks in the euro area Open
Recent studies emphasize that survey-based in ation risk measures are informative about future inflation and thus useful for monetary authorities. However, these data are typically available at a quarterly frequency whereas monetary policy…
View article: No firm is an island? How industry conditions shape firms’ expectations
No firm is an island? How industry conditions shape firms’ expectations Open
Using a survey of French manufacturing firms, we study how firms' expectations and actions are affected by both aggregate and industry-specific conditions. In response to industry-level shocks that have no aggregate effects, firms' aggrega…
View article: Inflation: Drivers and Dynamics 2020 Conference Summary
Inflation: Drivers and Dynamics 2020 Conference Summary Open
To provide insights into the processes that drive inflationary dynamics, the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland holds an annual conference on the topic of inflation: the Inflation: Drivers and Dynamics series. The 2020 installment of the co…
View article: What Matters in Households' Inflation Expectations?
What Matters in Households' Inflation Expectations? Open
View article: Should the ECB Adjust its Strategy in the Face of a Lower R*?
Should the ECB Adjust its Strategy in the Face of a Lower R*? Open
View article: What Matters in Households’ Inflation Expectations?
What Matters in Households’ Inflation Expectations? Open
We provide evidence that households discretize their inflation expectations so that what matters for durable consumption decisions is the broad inflation regime they expect. Using survey data, we document that a large share of the adjustme…
View article: No Firm Is an Island? How Industry Conditions Shape Firms’ Expectations
No Firm Is an Island? How Industry Conditions Shape Firms’ Expectations Open
We study how firms' expectations and actions are affected by both aggregate and industryspecific conditions using a survey of French manufacturing firms. We document an important new stylized fact. In response to industry-level shocks that…
View article: Delphic and odyssean monetary policy shocks: Evidence from the euro area
Delphic and odyssean monetary policy shocks: Evidence from the euro area Open
View article: No Firm is an Island? How Industry Conditions Shape FirmsA Aggregate Expectations
No Firm is an Island? How Industry Conditions Shape FirmsA Aggregate Expectations Open
We study how firms’ expectations and actions are affected by both aggregate and industry-specific conditions using a survey of French manufacturing firms. We document two novel features. First, the adjustment of firms’ expectations is more…
View article: No Firm is an Island? How Industry Conditions Shape Firms' Aggregate Expectations
No Firm is an Island? How Industry Conditions Shape Firms' Aggregate Expectations Open
We study how firms' expectations and actions are affected by both aggregate and industryspecific conditions using a survey of French manufacturing firms.We document two novel features.First, the adjustment of firms' expectations is more ra…
View article: No Firm Is an Island? How Industry Conditions Shape Firms’ Expectations
No Firm Is an Island? How Industry Conditions Shape Firms’ Expectations Open
View article: No Firm is an Island? How Industry Conditions Shape Firms&Apos; Aggregate Expectations
No Firm is an Island? How Industry Conditions Shape Firms&Apos; Aggregate Expectations Open
View article: What Matters in Households’ Inflation Expectations?
What Matters in Households’ Inflation Expectations? Open
View article: Delphic and Odyssean Monetary Policy Shocks: Evidence from the Euro Area
Delphic and Odyssean Monetary Policy Shocks: Evidence from the Euro Area Open
What drives the strong reaction of financial markets to central bank communication on the days of policy decisions? We highlight the role of two factors that we identify from highfrequency monetary surprises: news on future macroeconomic c…
View article: The Optimal Inflation Target and the Natural Rate of Interest
The Optimal Inflation Target and the Natural Rate of Interest Open
We study how changes in the steady-state real interest rate affect the optimal inflation target in a New Keynesian DSGE model with trend inflation and a lower bound on the nominal interest rate. In this setup, a lower steady-state real int…
View article: The Optimal Inflation Target and the Natural Rate of Interest
The Optimal Inflation Target and the Natural Rate of Interest Open
We study how changes in the steady-state real interest rate (henceforth r*) affect the optimal inflation target in a New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model with trend inflation and a lower bound on the nominal in…
View article: Replication data for: Forward Guidance and Heterogeneous Beliefs
Replication data for: Forward Guidance and Heterogeneous Beliefs Open
Central banks' announcements that rates are expected to remain low could signal either a weak macroeconomic outlook, which would slow expenditures, or a more accommodative stance, which may stimulate economic activity. We use the Survey of…
View article: The Optimal Inflation Target and the Natural Rate of Interest
The Optimal Inflation Target and the Natural Rate of Interest Open
We study how changes in the steady-state real interest rate affect the optimal inflation target in a New Keynesian DSGE model with trend inflation and a lower bound on the nominal interest rate. In this setup, a lower steady-state real int…
View article: The Optimal Inflation Target and the Natural Rate of Interest
The Optimal Inflation Target and the Natural Rate of Interest Open
View article: Delphic and Odyssean monetary policy shocks: Evidence from the euro area
Delphic and Odyssean monetary policy shocks: Evidence from the euro area Open
We use financial intraday data to identify monetary policy surprises in the euro area. We find that monetary policy statements and press conferences after European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council meetings convey information that moves…
View article: The optimal inflation target and the natural rate of interest
The optimal inflation target and the natural rate of interest Open
We study how changes in the value of the steady-state real interest rate affect the optimal inflation\ntarget, both in the U.S. and the euro area, using an estimated New Keynesian DSGE model that incorporates\nthe zero (or effective) lower…