Rob Lamb
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View article: Are LLM Belief Updates Consistent with Bayes' Theorem?
Are LLM Belief Updates Consistent with Bayes' Theorem? Open
Do larger and more capable language models learn to update their "beliefs" about propositions more consistently with Bayes' theorem when presented with evidence in-context? To test this, we formulate a Bayesian Coherence Coefficient (BCC) …
View article: Global sensitivity analysis of large-scale flood loss models
Global sensitivity analysis of large-scale flood loss models Open
Flood loss models are increasingly used in the (re)insurance sector to inform a range of financial decisions. These models simulate the interactions between flood hazard, vulnerability and exposure over large spatial domains, requiring a r…
View article: Assessing the temporal clustering of coastal storm tide hazards under natural variability in a near 500-year model run
Assessing the temporal clustering of coastal storm tide hazards under natural variability in a near 500-year model run Open
The temporal clustering of storms can present successive natural hazards for coastal areas in the form of extreme sea levels, storm surges and waves. Studies have investigated the prevalence of the temporal clustering of such hazards but a…
View article: Gauged and historical abrupt wave front floods (‘walls of water’) in Pennine rivers, northern England
Gauged and historical abrupt wave front floods (‘walls of water’) in Pennine rivers, northern England Open
Extremely rapid rates of rise in level and discharge in a subset of flash floods (‘abrupt wave front floods’, AWF) are separate hazards from peak level. Such flood events are investigated for Pennine catchments in northern England using bo…
View article: Recommendation: How to cope with uncertainty monsters in flood risk management? — R1/PR8
Recommendation: How to cope with uncertainty monsters in flood risk management? — R1/PR8 Open
Strategies are proposed to cope with uncertainties in a way that all possible kinds of uncertainty are named, recognized, statistically quantified as far as possible and utilized in efficient decision-making in flood risk management (FRM).…
View article: Decision: How to cope with uncertainty monsters in flood risk management? — R1/PR9
Decision: How to cope with uncertainty monsters in flood risk management? — R1/PR9 Open
Strategies are proposed to cope with uncertainties in a way that all possible kinds of uncertainty are named, recognized, statistically quantified as far as possible and utilized in efficient decision-making in flood risk management (FRM).…
View article: How to cope with uncertainty monsters in flood risk management?
How to cope with uncertainty monsters in flood risk management? Open
Strategies are proposed to cope with uncertainties in a way that all possible kinds of uncertainty are named, recognized, statistically quantified as far as possible and utilized in efficient decision-making in flood risk management (FRM).…
View article: Review: How to cope with uncertainty monsters in flood risk management? — R1/PR7
Review: How to cope with uncertainty monsters in flood risk management? — R1/PR7 Open
Strategies are proposed to cope with uncertainties in a way that all possible kinds of uncertainty are named, recognized, statistically quantified as far as possible and utilized in efficient decision-making in flood risk management (FRM).…
View article: Recommendation: How to cope with uncertainty monsters in flood risk management? — R0/PR4
Recommendation: How to cope with uncertainty monsters in flood risk management? — R0/PR4 Open
Strategies are proposed to cope with uncertainties in a way that all possible kinds of uncertainty are named, recognized, statistically quantified as far as possible and utilized in efficient decision-making in flood risk management (FRM).…
View article: Review: How to cope with uncertainty monsters in flood risk management? — R0/PR3
Review: How to cope with uncertainty monsters in flood risk management? — R0/PR3 Open
Strategies are proposed to cope with uncertainties in a way that all possible kinds of uncertainty are named, recognized, statistically quantified as far as possible and utilized in efficient decision-making in flood risk management (FRM).…
View article: Review: How to cope with uncertainty monsters in flood risk management? — R0/PR2
Review: How to cope with uncertainty monsters in flood risk management? — R0/PR2 Open
Strategies are proposed to cope with uncertainties in a way that all possible kinds of uncertainty are named, recognized, statistically quantified as far as possible and utilized in efficient decision-making in flood risk management (FRM).…
View article: What controls uncertainty in flood risk estimates? An analysis across the Rhine River basin.
What controls uncertainty in flood risk estimates? An analysis across the Rhine River basin. Open
Floods are among the costliest and deadliest natural hazards. Flood risk assessments are required to better manage risk associated with floods. Nowadays, numerous flood risk models are available at various scales, from catchment to regiona…
View article: The temporal clustering of storm surge, wave height, and high sea level exceedances around the UK coastline
The temporal clustering of storm surge, wave height, and high sea level exceedances around the UK coastline Open
The temporal clustering of storms presents consecutive storm surge and wave hazards that can lead to amplified flood and erosional damages; thus, clustering is important for coastal stakeholders to consider. We analyse the prevalence of st…
View article: The future of flood hydrology in the UK
The future of flood hydrology in the UK Open
A ‘roadmap’ for the future of UK flood hydrology over the next 25 years has been published, based on a wide-ranging and inclusive co-creation process involving more than 270 individuals and 50 organisations from different sectors and disci…
View article: Recent advances in global analysis of critical infrastructure networks in a changing climate
Recent advances in global analysis of critical infrastructure networks in a changing climate Open
<p>There has been rapid progress in the development of capabilities to analyse infrastructure networks on very large scales, up to global scales. This is enabled by the growing availability of geospatial data products with global cov…
View article: Linking the relative importance of input uncertainties of a flood risk model with basin characteristics.
Linking the relative importance of input uncertainties of a flood risk model with basin characteristics. Open
<p>Floods are extreme natural hazards often with disastrous impacts on the economy and society. Flood risk assessments are required to better manage risk associated with floods. Nowadays, numerous flood risk models are available at v…
View article: Invited perspectives: Challenges and future directions in improving bridge flood resilience
Invited perspectives: Challenges and future directions in improving bridge flood resilience Open
Bridges are critical-infrastructure components of road and rail transport networks. A large number of these critical assets cross or are adjacent to waterways and floodplains and are therefore exposed to flood actions such as scour, hydrod…
View article: The Temporal Clustering of Storm Surge, Wave Height, and High Sea Level Exceedances Around the UK Coastline
The Temporal Clustering of Storm Surge, Wave Height, and High Sea Level Exceedances Around the UK Coastline Open
The temporal clustering of storms presents consecutive storm surge and wave hazards that can lead to amplified flood and erosional damages; thus, clustering is important for coastal stakeholders to consider. We analyse the prevalence of st…
View article: Comment on nhess-2021-293
Comment on nhess-2021-293 Open
Abstract. Bridges are critical-infrastructure components of road and rail transport networks. A large number of these critical assets cross or are adjacent to waterways and floodplains and are therefore exposed to flood actions such as sco…
View article: Prediction of flood quantiles at ungauged catchments for the contiguous USA using Artificial Neural Networks
Prediction of flood quantiles at ungauged catchments for the contiguous USA using Artificial Neural Networks Open
In this study, we utilise Artificial Neural Network (ANN) models to estimate the 100- and 1500-year return levels for around 900,000 ungauged catchments in the contiguous USA. The models were trained and validated using 4,079 gauges and se…
View article: Comment on nhess-2021-293
Comment on nhess-2021-293 Open
Abstract. Bridges are critical-infrastructure components of road and rail transport networks. A large number of these critical assets cross or are adjacent to waterways and floodplains and are therefore exposed to flood actions such as sco…
View article: Comment on nhess-2021-293
Comment on nhess-2021-293 Open
Abstract. Bridges are critical-infrastructure components of road and rail transport networks. A large number of these critical assets cross or are adjacent to waterways and floodplains and are therefore exposed to flood actions such as sco…
View article: Using micro‐catchment experiments for multi‐local scale modelling of nature‐based solutions
Using micro‐catchment experiments for multi‐local scale modelling of nature‐based solutions Open
The Q‐natural flood management project has co‐developed with the Environment Agency 18 monitored micro‐catchments (~1 km 2 ) in Cumbria, UK installing calibrated flumes aimed at quantifying the potential shift in observed flows resulting f…
View article: Invited perspectives: challenges and future directions in improving bridge flood resilience
Invited perspectives: challenges and future directions in improving bridge flood resilience Open
Bridges are critical infrastructure components of road and rail transport networks. A large number of these critical assets cross or are adjacent to waterways and floodplains and are therefore exposed to flood actions such as scour, hydrod…
View article: Comment on nhess-2021-293
Comment on nhess-2021-293 Open
Abstract. Bridges are critical-infrastructure components of road and rail transport networks. A large number of these critical assets cross or are adjacent to waterways and floodplains and are therefore exposed to flood actions such as sco…
View article: Knowledge gaps in our perceptual model of Great Britain's hydrology
Knowledge gaps in our perceptual model of Great Britain's hydrology Open
There is a no lack of significant open questions in the field of hydrology. How will hydrological connectivity between freshwater bodies be altered by future human alterations to the hydrological cycle? Where does water go when it rains? O…
View article: Global Changes in 20‐Year, 50‐Year, and 100‐Year River Floods
Global Changes in 20‐Year, 50‐Year, and 100‐Year River Floods Open
Concepts like the 100‐year flood event can be misleading if they are not updated to reflect significant changes over time. Here, we model observed annual maximum daily streamflow using a nonstationary approach to provide the first global p…