Robert E. Hall
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View article: The Active Role of the Natural Rate of Unemployment
The Active Role of the Natural Rate of Unemployment Open
We propose that the natural rate of unemployment may have an active role in the business cycle, in contrast to a widespread view that the rate is fairly smooth and at most only weakly cyclical. We demonstrate that the tendency to treat the…
View article: The Active Role of the Natural Rate of Unemployment
The Active Role of the Natural Rate of Unemployment Open
We propose that the natural rate of unemployment has an active role in the business cycle, in contrast to the prevailing view that the rate is essentially constant.We demonstrate that this tendency to treat the natural rate as near-constan…
View article: The Inexorable Recoveries of U.S. Unemployment
The Inexorable Recoveries of U.S. Unemployment Open
Unemployment recoveries in the US have been inexorable. In the aftermath of a recession, unless another crisis intervenes, unemployment continues to glide down. Between 1948 and 2019, the annual reduction in the unemployment rate during cy…
View article: The Unemployed with Jobs and without Jobs
The Unemployed with Jobs and without Jobs Open
Potential workers are classified as unemployed if they seek work but are not working. The unemployed population contains two groups---those with jobs and those without jobs. Those with jobs are on furlough or temporary layoff. This group e…
View article: The Inexorable Recoveries of Unemployment
The Inexorable Recoveries of Unemployment Open
Unemployment recoveries in the US have been inexorable.Between 1948 and 2019, the annual reduction in the unemployment rate during cyclical recoveries was fairly tightly distributed around 0.1 log points per year.The economy seems to have …
View article: The Inexorable Recoveries of Us Unemployment
The Inexorable Recoveries of Us Unemployment Open
Unemployment recoveries in the US have been inexorable. It is a remarkable fact that, prior to 2020, after unemployment reached its peak in a recession, and a recovery began, the annual reduction in the unemployment rate was stable at arou…
View article: The Unemployed With Jobs and Without Jobs
The Unemployed With Jobs and Without Jobs Open
Potential workers are classified as unemployed if they seek work but are not working.The unemployed population contains two groups-those with jobs and those without jobs.Those with jobs are on furlough or temporary layoff.This group expand…
View article: Trading Off Consumption and COVID-19 Deaths
Trading Off Consumption and COVID-19 Deaths Open
This note develops a framework for thinking about the following question: What is the maximum amount of consumption that a utilitarian welfare function would be willing to trade off to avoid the deaths associated with COVID-19? The answer …
View article: Trading Off Consumption and COVID-19 Deaths
Trading Off Consumption and COVID-19 Deaths Open
This note develops a framework for thinking about the following question: What is the maximum amount of consumption that a utilitarian welfare function would be willing to trade off to avoid the deaths associated with the pandemic?The answ…
View article: Correction Terms for Calculating Binding Free Energy Using Rates from Nonequilibrium Simulations
Correction Terms for Calculating Binding Free Energy Using Rates from Nonequilibrium Simulations Open
The free energy of a process is the fundamental quantity that determines its spontaneity or propensity at a given temperature. Binding free energy of a drug candidate to its biomolecular target is used as an objective quantity in drug desi…
View article: Correction Terms for Calculating Binding Free Energy Using Rates from Nonequilibrium Simulations
Correction Terms for Calculating Binding Free Energy Using Rates from Nonequilibrium Simulations Open
The free energy of a process is the fundamental quantity that determines its spontaneity or propensity at a given temperature. Binding free energy of a drug candidate to its biomolecular target is used as an objective quantity in drug desi…
View article: Risk Premium Shocks Can Create Inefficient Recessions
Risk Premium Shocks Can Create Inefficient Recessions Open
We develop an equilibrium theory of business cycles driven by spikes in risk premiums that depress business demand for capital and labor.Aggregate shocks increase firms' uninsurable idiosyncratic risk and raise risk premiums.We show that r…
View article: Job-Finding and Job-Losing: A Comprehensive Model of Heterogeneous Individual Labor-Market Dynamics
Job-Finding and Job-Losing: A Comprehensive Model of Heterogeneous Individual Labor-Market Dynamics Open
We study the paths over time that individuals follow in the labor market, as revealed in the monthly Current Population Survey. Some people face much higher flow values from work than in a non-market activity; if they lose a job, they find…
View article: Job-Finding and Job-Losing: A Comprehensive Model of Heterogeneous Individual Labor-Market Dynamics
Job-Finding and Job-Losing: A Comprehensive Model of Heterogeneous Individual Labor-Market Dynamics Open
We study the paths over time that individuals follow in the labor market, as revealed in the monthly Current Population Survey.Some people face much higher flow values from work than in a non-market activity; if they lose a job, they find …
View article: Using Empirical Marginal Cost to Measure Market Power in the US Economy
Using Empirical Marginal Cost to Measure Market Power in the US Economy Open
Market power arises in the case where a seller is aware that raising output will depress price.In the profit-maximizing equilibrium with market power, price exceeds marginal cost.The Lerner index---the ratio of price less marginal cost to …
View article: Using Empirical Marginal Cost to Measure Market Power in the Us Economy
Using Empirical Marginal Cost to Measure Market Power in the Us Economy Open
Market power arises in the case where a seller is aware that raising output will depress price. In the profit-maximizing equilibrium with market power, price exceeds marginal cost. The Lerner index---the ratio of price less marginal cost t…
View article: Wage dispersion and search behavior: the importance of nonwage job values
Wage dispersion and search behavior: the importance of nonwage job values Open
We use a rich new body of data on the experiences of unemployed job seekers to determine the sources of wage dispersion and to create a search model consistent with the acceptance decisions the job seekers made. We identify the distributio…
View article: New Evidence on the Markup of Prices Over Marginal Costs and the Role of Mega-Firms in the Us Economy
New Evidence on the Markup of Prices Over Marginal Costs and the Role of Mega-Firms in the Us Economy Open
The markup of price over marginal cost reveals market power. The distinction between marginal and average cost is key. Average cost is easy to measure, but the price/average cost ratio understates the price/marginal cost ratio when fixed c…
View article: Short-Run and Long-Run Effects of Milton Friedman's Presidential Address
Short-Run and Long-Run Effects of Milton Friedman's Presidential Address Open
The centerpiece of Milton Friedman's (1968) presidential address to the American Economic Association, delivered in Washington, DC, on December 29, 1967, was the striking proposition that monetary policy has no longer-run effects on the re…