Robert Kurtzman
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View article: Shovel Ready Projects and Commercial Construction Activity’s Long and Variable Lags
Shovel Ready Projects and Commercial Construction Activity’s Long and Variable Lags Open
We use microdata on the phases of commercial construction projects to document three facts regarding the sector's time-to-plan lags: (1) plan times are long and highly variable, (2) nearly half of projects in planning are abandoned, and (3…
View article: Trends in Credit Unions' Share of U.S. Private Depository Household Lending
Trends in Credit Unions' Share of U.S. Private Depository Household Lending Open
Before examining trends in lending, it is useful to first examine trends in the financial assets of the institutions more generally.
View article: Recent Patterns in Construction Plans and Starts for Manufacturing Structures in the United States
Recent Patterns in Construction Plans and Starts for Manufacturing Structures in the United States Open
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View article: Determinants of Recent CRE Distress: Implications for the Banking Sector
Determinants of Recent CRE Distress: Implications for the Banking Sector Open
Rising interest rates and structural shifts in the demand for space have strained CRE markets and prompted concern about contagion to the largest CRE debt holder: banks. We use confidential loan-level data on bank CRE portfolios to examine…
View article: CRE Redevelopment Options and the Use of Mortgage Financing
CRE Redevelopment Options and the Use of Mortgage Financing Open
A significant share of commercial real estate (CRE) investment properties—about half by our estimates—are purchased without a mortgage. Using comprehensive microdata on transactions in the US CRE market, we analyze which types of propertie…
View article: On commercial construction activity's long and variable lags
On commercial construction activity's long and variable lags Open
We use microdata on the phases of commercial construction projects to document three facts regarding time-to-plan lags: (1) plan times are long - about 1.5 years - and highly variable, (2) roughly 40 percent of projects are abandoned in pl…
View article: CRE Redevelopment Options and the Use of Mortgage Financing
CRE Redevelopment Options and the Use of Mortgage Financing Open
A significant share of commercial real estate (CRE) investment properties---about half by our estimates---are purchased without a mortgage. Using comprehensive microdata on transactions in the U.S. CRE market, we analyze which types of pro…
View article: On Commercial Construction Activity's Long and Variable Lags
On Commercial Construction Activity's Long and Variable Lags Open
We use microdata on the phases of commercial construction projects to document three facts regarding time-to-plan lags: (1) plan times are long—about 1.5 years on average—and highly variable, (2) roughly one-third of projects are abandoned…
View article: Recourse as shadow equity: Evidence from commercial real estate loans
Recourse as shadow equity: Evidence from commercial real estate loans Open
We study the role that recourse plays in the commercial real estate loan contracts of the largest U.S. banks. We find that recourse is valued by lenders as a substitute for conventional equity. At origination, recourse loans have rate spre…
View article: Aggregate Implications of Deviations from Modigliani-Miller: A Sufficient Statistics Approach
Aggregate Implications of Deviations from Modigliani-Miller: A Sufficient Statistics Approach Open
A few sufficient statistics can identify the aggregate effects of distortions to firm investment in a class of general equilibrium models that can accommodate rich general equilibrium effects including endogenous firm entry. This result do…
View article: From-Whom-to-Whom Relationships in the Financial Accounts of the United States A New Methodology and Some Early Results
From-Whom-to-Whom Relationships in the Financial Accounts of the United States A New Methodology and Some Early Results Open
The Financial Accounts of the United States (the Accounts or FAUS) provide data on the financial assets and liabilities of major sectors of the United States economy, disaggregated by financial instrument. The Accounts can thus serve many …
View article: Loan Modifications and the Commercial Real Estate Market
Loan Modifications and the Commercial Real Estate Market Open
Banks modify more CRE loans than CMBS, contributing to better loan performance when property incomes decline. However, banks have higher delinquency rates for less-stressed loans, consistent with modification policies encouraging strategic…
View article: Loan Modifications and the Commercial Real Estate Market
Loan Modifications and the Commercial Real Estate Market Open
Banks modify more CRE loans than CMBS, contributing to better loan performance when property incomes decline. However, banks have higher delinquency rates for less-stressed loans, consistent with modification policies encouraging strategic…
View article: Intermediary Segmentation in the Commercial Real Estate Market*
Intermediary Segmentation in the Commercial Real Estate Market* Open
Banks, life insurers, and commercial mortgage‐backed security (CMBS) lenders originate the vast majority of U.S. commercial real estate (CRE) loans. While these lenders compete in the same market, they differ in how they are funded and reg…
View article: Recourse as Shadow Equity: Evidence from Commercial Real Estate Loans
Recourse as Shadow Equity: Evidence from Commercial Real Estate Loans Open
We study the role that recourse plays in the commercial real estate loan contracts of the largest U.S. banks. We find that recourse is valued by lenders and is treated as a substitute for conventional equity. At origination, recourse loans…
View article: Recourse as Shadow Equity: Evidence from Commercial Real Estate Loans
Recourse as Shadow Equity: Evidence from Commercial Real Estate Loans Open
We study the role that recourse plays in the commercial real estate loan contracts of the largest U.S. banks. We find that recourse is valued by lenders and is treated as a substitute for conventional equity. At origination, recourse loans…
View article: How Do Capital Requirements Affect Loan Rates? Evidence from High Volatility Commercial Real Estate*
How Do Capital Requirements Affect Loan Rates? Evidence from High Volatility Commercial Real Estate* Open
We investigate how capital requirements affect loan rates by studying the 50% increase in the risk weight for high volatility commercial real estate (HVCRE) loans under Basel III. Exploiting variation in loan terms and exposure to the peri…
View article: Accounting for COVID-19 Related Funding, Credit, Liquidity, and Loan Facilities in the Financial Accounts of the United States
Accounting for COVID-19 Related Funding, Credit, Liquidity, and Loan Facilities in the Financial Accounts of the United States Open
In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, U.S. government policymakers took extraordinary actions to support the nation's households and businesses. As a part of this crisis response, the Federal Reserve established a number of funding, liquid…
View article: Across the Universe: Policy Support for Employment and Revenue in the Pandemic Recession
Across the Universe: Policy Support for Employment and Revenue in the Pandemic Recession Open
Using data from 14 government sources, we develop comprehensive estimates of U.S. economic activity by sector, legal form of organization, and firm size to characterize how four government direct lending programs—the Paycheck Protection Pr…
View article: Across the Universe: Policy Support for Employment and Revenue in the Pandemic Recession
Across the Universe: Policy Support for Employment and Revenue in the Pandemic Recession Open
Using data from 14 government sources, we develop comprehensive estimates of U.S. economic activity by sector, legal form of organization, and firm size to characterize how four government direct lending programs—the Paycheck Protection Pr…
View article: An Aggregate View of Bank Lending Standards and Demand
An Aggregate View of Bank Lending Standards and Demand Open
The Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices (SLOOS) provides information about the supply of, and demand for, bank credit in the United States on a quarterly basis. SLOOS responses are used internally by Federal Reserv…
View article: Intermediary Segmentation in the Commercial Real Estate Market
Intermediary Segmentation in the Commercial Real Estate Market Open
Banks, life insurers, and commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) lenders originate the vast majority of U.S. commercial real estate (CRE) loans. While these lenders compete in the same market, they differ in how they are funded and r…
View article: Changes in Monetary Policy and Banks' Net Interest Margins: A Comparison across Four Tightening Episodes
Changes in Monetary Policy and Banks' Net Interest Margins: A Comparison across Four Tightening Episodes Open
In this note, we examine how U.S. banks' NIMs have varied over the most recent monetary policy tightening episode compared with the three previous monetary policy tightening episodes.
View article: How do Capital Requirements Affect Loan Rates? Evidence from High Volatility Commercial Real Estate
How do Capital Requirements Affect Loan Rates? Evidence from High Volatility Commercial Real Estate Open
We study how bank loan rates responded to a 50% increase in capital requirements for a subcategory of construction lending, High Volatility Commercial Real Estate (HVCRE). To identify this effect, we exploit variation in the loan terms det…