Robert N. Collins
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View article: Everyone I don't like is biased: Affective evaluations and the bias blind spot
Everyone I don't like is biased: Affective evaluations and the bias blind spot Open
People commonly exhibit a bias blind spot (BBS), judging themselves as less susceptible to bias than the “average other.” However, less is known about how people attribute bias to familiar others who evoke strong affect. We examined whethe…
View article: Everyone I don't like is biased: Affective evaluations and the bias blind spot
Everyone I don't like is biased: Affective evaluations and the bias blind spot Open
People commonly exhibit a bias blind spot (BBS), judging themselves as less susceptible to bias than the “average other.” However, less is known about how people attribute bias to familiar others who evoke strong affect. We examined whethe…
View article: Verbal and numeric probabilities differentially shape decisions
Verbal and numeric probabilities differentially shape decisions Open
Experts often communicate probabilities verbally (e.g., unlikely) rather than numerically (e.g., 25% chance). Although criticism has focused on the vagueness of verbal probabilities, less attention has been given to the potential unintende…
View article: Performance-Weighted Aggregation: Ferreting Out Wisdom Within the Crowd
Performance-Weighted Aggregation: Ferreting Out Wisdom Within the Crowd Open
This is a pre-print of a chapter intended for publication in the book "JUDGMENT IN PREDICTIVE ANALYTICS" (Ed. Matthias Seifert, Ph.D.). The chapter represents a primer and review of various performance-weighted aggregation techniques, incl…
View article: Insights into the accuracy of social scientists’ forecasts of societal change
Insights into the accuracy of social scientists’ forecasts of societal change Open
How well can social scientists predict societal change, and what processes underlie their predictions? To answer these questions, we ran two forecasting tournaments testing the accuracy of predictions of societal change in domains commonly…
View article: Hypothesized drivers of the bias blind spot—cognitive sophistication, introspection bias, and conversational processes
Hypothesized drivers of the bias blind spot—cognitive sophistication, introspection bias, and conversational processes Open
Individuals often assess themselves as being less susceptible to common biases compared to others. This bias blind spot (BBS) is thought to represent a metacognitive error. In this research, we tested three explanations for the effect: The…
View article: Hypothesized Drivers of the Bias Blind Spot—Cognitive Sophistication, Introspection Bias, and Conversational Processes
Hypothesized Drivers of the Bias Blind Spot—Cognitive Sophistication, Introspection Bias, and Conversational Processes Open
Individuals often assess themselves as being less susceptible to common biases compared to others. This bias blind spot (BBS) is thought to represent a metacognitive error. In this research, we tested three explanations for the effect: The…
View article: Insights into accuracy of social scientists' forecasts of societal change
Insights into accuracy of social scientists' forecasts of societal change Open
How well can social scientists predict societal change, and what processes underlie their predictions? To answer these questions, we ran two forecasting tournaments testing accuracy of predictions of societal change in domains commonly stu…
View article: Insights into accuracy of social scientists' forecasts of societal change
Insights into accuracy of social scientists' forecasts of societal change Open
How well can social scientists predict societal change, and what processes underlie their predictions? To answer these questions, we ran two forecasting tournaments testing accuracy of predictions of societal change in domains commonly stu…
View article: The Wisdom of the Coherent: Improving Correspondence with Coherence-Weighted Aggregation
The Wisdom of the Coherent: Improving Correspondence with Coherence-Weighted Aggregation Open
Previous research shows that variation in coherence (i.e., degrees of respect for axioms of probability calculus), when used as a basis for performance-weighted aggregation, can improve the accuracy of probability judgments. However, many …
View article: Political Identity Over Personal Impact: Early U.S. Reactions to the COVID-19 Pandemic
Political Identity Over Personal Impact: Early U.S. Reactions to the COVID-19 Pandemic Open
Research suggests political identity has strong influence over individuals’ attitudes and beliefs, which in turn can affect their behavior. Likewise, firsthand experience with an issue can also affect attitudes and beliefs. A large ( N = 6…
View article: Political identity over personal impact: Early US reactions to the COVID-19 pandemic
Political identity over personal impact: Early US reactions to the COVID-19 pandemic Open
Research suggests political identity has strong influence over individuals’ attitudes and beliefs, which in turn can affect their behavior. Likewise, firsthand experience with an issue can also affect attitudes and beliefs. A large (N = 10…
View article: Effect of confidence interval construction on judgment accuracy
Effect of confidence interval construction on judgment accuracy Open
Three experiments ( N = 550) examined the effect of an interval construction elicitation method used in several expert elicitation studies on judgment accuracy. Participants made judgments about topics that were either searchable or unsear…
View article: Effect of Confidence Interval Construction on Judgment Accuracy
Effect of Confidence Interval Construction on Judgment Accuracy Open
Three experiments (N = 550) examined the effect of an interval construction elicitation method used in several expert elicitation studies on judgment accuracy. Participants made judgments about topics that were either searchable or unsearc…
View article: Cultivating credibility with probability words and numbers
Cultivating credibility with probability words and numbers Open
Recent research suggests that communicating probabilities numerically rather than verbally benefits forecasters’ credibility. In two experiments, we tested the reproducibility of this communication-format effect. The effect was replicated …
View article: Cultivating credibility with probability words and numbers
Cultivating credibility with probability words and numbers Open
Recent research suggests that communicating probabilities numerically rather than verbally benefits forecasters’ credibility. In two experiments, we tested the reproducibility of this communication-format effect. The effect was replicated …
View article: Remembering 'primed' words: The effect of prime encoding demands
Remembering 'primed' words: The effect of prime encoding demands Open
Rosner, Lopez-Benitez, D’Angelo, Thomson, and Milliken (2017) reported a novel recognition memory effect using an immediate repetition method during the study phase. During each trial of an incidental study phase, participants named a targ…