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View article: Mitigation needed to avoid unprecedented multi-decadal North Atlantic Oscillation magnitude
Mitigation needed to avoid unprecedented multi-decadal North Atlantic Oscillation magnitude Open
The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) dominates winters in Western Europe and eastern North America. Future climate model projections of the NAO are highly uncertain due to both modelled irreducible internal variability and different model …
View article: HadGEM3-GC31-MM year-long ENSO, QBO, and sea-ice simulations
HadGEM3-GC31-MM year-long ENSO, QBO, and sea-ice simulations Open
HadGEM3-GC31-MM year-long (June to May) simulations of two ENSO, two QBO, and two sea-ice states. The ENSO states are neutral ENSO and El Niño, the QBO states are QBO westerly and easterly, and the sea-ice states are present day and future…
View article: Recalibration of missing low-frequency variability and trends in the North Atlantic Oscillation
Recalibration of missing low-frequency variability and trends in the North Atlantic Oscillation Open
Multi-decadal trends in the wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) are under-represented by coupled general circulation models (CGCMs), consistent with a lack of autocorrelation in their NAO index series. This study proposes and tests…
View article: Impact of volcanic eruptions on CMIP6 decadal predictions: a multi-model analysis
Impact of volcanic eruptions on CMIP6 decadal predictions: a multi-model analysis Open
In recent decades, three major volcanic eruptions of different intensity have occurred (Mount Agung in 1963, El Chichón in 1982 and Mount Pinatubo in 1991), with reported climate impacts on seasonal to decadal timescales that could have be…
View article: An ensemble reconstruction of ocean temperature, salinity, and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation 1960–202
An ensemble reconstruction of ocean temperature, salinity, and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation 1960–202 Open
Ocean reanalyses covering many decades, including those with few observations, are needed to understand climate variability and to initialize and assess interannual to decadal climate predictions. The Met Office Statistical Ocean Re-Analys…
View article: Recalibration of extreme multi-decadal trends in the North Atlantic Oscillation.
Recalibration of extreme multi-decadal trends in the North Atlantic Oscillation. Open
The historical variability of the winter mean North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) has featured periods with large multi-decadal trends which are not well represented by coupled general circulation models (CGCMs), consistent with a lack of aut…
View article: Comment on esd-2023-36
Comment on esd-2023-36 Open
Abstract. In recent decades, three major volcanic eruptions of different intensity have occurred (Mount Agung in 1963, El Chichón in 1982 and Mount Pinatubo in 1991), with reported climate impacts on seasonal to decadal timescales that cou…
View article: Impact of volcanic eruptions on CMIP6 decadal predictions: A multi-model analysis
Impact of volcanic eruptions on CMIP6 decadal predictions: A multi-model analysis Open
In recent decades three major volcanic eruptions of different intensity have occurred (Mount Agung in 1963, El Chichón in 1982 and Mount Pinatubo in 1991), with reported climate impacts on seasonal-to-decadal timescales that could have bee…
View article: An ensemble reconstruction of ocean temperature, salinity, and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation 1960–2021
An ensemble reconstruction of ocean temperature, salinity, and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation 1960–2021 Open
Ocean reanalyses covering many decades, including those with few observations, are needed to understand climate variability and to initialize and assess interannual to decadal climate predictions. The Met Office Statistical Ocean Re‐Analys…
View article: Opposite Impacts of Interannual and Decadal Pacific Variability in the Extratropics
Opposite Impacts of Interannual and Decadal Pacific Variability in the Extratropics Open
It is well established that the positive phase of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) tends to weaken the Northern Hemisphere stratospheric polar vortex (SPV), promoting a negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Pacific Decadal Var…
View article: Opposite Impacts of Interannual and Decadal Pacific Variability in the Extratropics
Opposite Impacts of Interannual and Decadal Pacific Variability in the Extratropics Open
It is well established that the positive phase of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) tends to weaken the Northern Hemisphere stratospheric polar vortex (SPV), promoting a negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Pacific Decadal Variabil…
View article: ENSO and QBO modulation of the relationship between Arctic sea ice loss and Eurasian winter climate
ENSO and QBO modulation of the relationship between Arctic sea ice loss and Eurasian winter climate Open
The causality between Arctic sea ice decline and cold boreal winters has been widely debated recently and remains controversial. A major source of uncertainty in the sea ice-cold winter relationship originates from that the stratosphere po…
View article: HadGEM3-GC31-MM year-long ENSO, QBO, and sea-ice simulations
HadGEM3-GC31-MM year-long ENSO, QBO, and sea-ice simulations Open
HadGEM3-GC31-MM year-long (June to May) simulations of two ENSO, two QBO, and two sea-ice states. The ENSO states are neutral ENSO and El Niño, the QBO states are QBO westerly and easterly, and the sea-ice states are present day and future…
View article: Interannual vs Decadal Impacts of Pacific Variability
Interannual vs Decadal Impacts of Pacific Variability Open
<p>Pacific Decadal Variability (PDV) is characterised by a pattern similar to the interannual El Ni&#241;o Sothern Oscillation (ENSO), with anomalously warm sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the tropical Pacific surrounded by a …
View article: WMO Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update: A Prediction for 2021–25
WMO Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update: A Prediction for 2021–25 Open
As climate change accelerates, societies and climate-sensitive socioeconomic sectors cannot continue to rely on the past as a guide to possible future climate hazards. Operational decadal predictions offer the potential to inform current a…
View article: Quantifying the rarity of extreme multi-decadal trends: how unusual was the late twentieth century trend in the North Atlantic Oscillation?
Quantifying the rarity of extreme multi-decadal trends: how unusual was the late twentieth century trend in the North Atlantic Oscillation? Open
Climate trends over multiple decades are important drivers of regional climate change that need to be considered for climate resilience. Of particular importance are extreme trends that society may not be expecting and is not well adapted …
View article: Impacts of Atlantic multidecadal variability on the tropical Pacific: a multi-model study
Impacts of Atlantic multidecadal variability on the tropical Pacific: a multi-model study Open
Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV) has been linked to the observed slowdown of global warming over 1998–2012 through its impact on the tropical Pacific. Given the global importance of tropical Pacific variability, better understanding…
View article: Opposite Responses of the Dry and Moist Eddy Heat Transport Into the Arctic in the PAMIP Experiments
Opposite Responses of the Dry and Moist Eddy Heat Transport Into the Arctic in the PAMIP Experiments Open
Given uncertainty in the processes involved in polar amplification, elucidating the role of poleward heat and moisture transport is crucial. The Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison Project (PAMIP) permits robust separation of the eff…
View article: A New Pacific Influence on the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation
A New Pacific Influence on the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation Open
<p>The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) at 26N has been measured since 2004 by the RAPID-MOCHA array. On a multi-year timescale it shows a decline with signs of a recovery since around 2012. This variability is like…
View article: Current likelihood and dynamics of hot summers in the UK
Current likelihood and dynamics of hot summers in the UK Open
Summer 2018 in the United Kingdom (UK) was its joint hottest on record and the associated impacts raise questions over societal resilience to extremes of this magnitude or greater occurring in upcoming years. Better information on the curr…
View article: Skilful interannual climate prediction from two large initialised model ensembles
Skilful interannual climate prediction from two large initialised model ensembles Open
Climate prediction skill on the interannual timescale, which sits between that of seasonal and decadal, is investigated using large ensembles from the Met Office and CESM initialised coupled prediction systems. A key goal is to determine w…
View article: Author Correction: Robust skill of decadal climate predictions
Author Correction: Robust skill of decadal climate predictions Open
An amendment to this paper has been published and can be accessed via a link at the top of the paper.
View article: Model and state dependence of the atmospheric response to Arctic sea-ice loss
Model and state dependence of the atmospheric response to Arctic sea-ice loss Open
<p>The climate response to Arctic sea-ice loss is highly uncertain. There exists considerable disagreement between observational and modelling studies, and between models, for reasons that remain poorly understood. To make progress, …
View article: Impacts of regional sea ice loss – a global response
Impacts of regional sea ice loss – a global response Open
Climate model studies have shown a wide range of responses in the northern hemisphere to reduced sea ice loss in the Arctic. The most robust is the thermodynamic response with local warming in the region of the sea ice loss. Many studies a…
View article: Robust skill of decadal climate predictions
Robust skill of decadal climate predictions Open
There is a growing need for skilful predictions of climate up to a decade ahead. Decadal climate predictions show high skill for surface temperature, but confidence in forecasts of precipitation and atmospheric circulation is much lower. R…
View article: Preindustrial Control Simulations With HadGEM3‐GC3.1 for CMIP6
Preindustrial Control Simulations With HadGEM3‐GC3.1 for CMIP6 Open
Preindustrial control simulations with the third Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model, run in the Global Coupled configuration 3.1 of the Met Office Unified Model (HadGEM3‐GC3.1) are presented at two resolutions. These are N216ORCA025,…
View article: Predicted Chance That Global Warming Will Temporarily Exceed 1.5 °C
Predicted Chance That Global Warming Will Temporarily Exceed 1.5 °C Open
The Paris Agreement calls for efforts to limit anthropogenic global warming to less than 1.5 °C above preindustrial levels. However, natural internal variability may exacerbate anthropogenic warming to produce temporary excursions above 1.…