Ryan D. Torn
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Comparison of 2018–22 Tropical Cyclone Track Forecasts before and after NOAA G-IV Missions Open
This study investigates the impact of dropwindsonde data from NOAA Gulfstream IV (G-IV) synoptic surveillance missions on Atlantic basin tropical cyclone (TC) track forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECM…
A Comparison of Arctic and Atlantic Basin Cyclone Track and Intensity Forecast Uncertainty Open
Summer Arctic cyclones (ACs) are long-lived, synoptic-scale features associated with strong winds and precipitation that can lead to reductions in sea ice. Consequently, a better understanding of the upper-tropospheric low-level thermodyna…
View article: The THINICE Field Campaign: Interactions between Arctic Cyclones, Tropopause Polar Vortices, Clouds, and Sea Ice in Summer
The THINICE Field Campaign: Interactions between Arctic Cyclones, Tropopause Polar Vortices, Clouds, and Sea Ice in Summer Open
The THINICE field campaign, based in Svalbard in August 2022, provided unique observations of summertime Arctic cyclones, their coupling with cloud cover, and their interactions with tropopause polar vortices and sea ice conditions. THINIC…
View article: Advancing Atmospheric River Science and Inspiring Future Development of the Atmospheric River Reconnaissance Program
Advancing Atmospheric River Science and Inspiring Future Development of the Atmospheric River Reconnaissance Program Open
© 2023 American Meteorological Society. This is an Author Accepted Manuscript distributed under the terms of the default AMS reuse license. For information regarding reuse and general copyright information, consult the AMS Copyright Policy…
Unusual tracks: Statistical, controlling factors and model prediction Open
The progress of research and forecast techniques for tropical cyclone (TC) unusual tracks (UTs) in recent years is reviewed. A major research focus has been understanding which processes contribute to the evolution of the TC and steering f…
View article: Recommendations for improved tropical cyclone formation and position probabilistic Forecast products
Recommendations for improved tropical cyclone formation and position probabilistic Forecast products Open
Prediction of the potentially devastating impact of landfalling tropical cyclones (TCs) relies substantially on numerical prediction systems. Due to the limited predictability of TCs and the need to express forecast confidence and possible…
View article: Forecast evaluation of the North Pacific jet stream using <scp>AR</scp> Recon dropwindsondes
Forecast evaluation of the North Pacific jet stream using <span>AR</span> Recon dropwindsondes Open
The term jet stream generally refers to a narrow region of intense winds near the top of the midlatitude or subtropical troposphere. It is in the midlatitude jet stream where instabilities and waves may develop into synoptic‐scale systems,…
A Tale of Two Vortex Evolutions: Using a High-Resolution Ensemble to Assess the Impacts of Ventilation on a Tropical Cyclone Rapid Intensification Event Open
The multiscale nature of tropical cyclone (TC) intensity change under moderate vertical wind shear was explored through an ensemble of high-resolution simulations of Hurricane Gonzalo (2014). Ensemble intensity forecasts were characterized…
View article: Factors Influencing the Track of Hurricane Dorian (2019) in the West Atlantic: Analysis of a HAFS Ensemble
Factors Influencing the Track of Hurricane Dorian (2019) in the West Atlantic: Analysis of a HAFS Ensemble Open
Hurricane Dorian (2019), a category-5 tropical cyclone (TC), was characterized by a large spread in track forecasts as it moved northwest. A set of 80 ensemble forecasts from the Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System (HAFS) was produced t…
Select WRF-AHW model output of Hurricane Gonzalo (2014) used in Fischer et al. (2022) Open
The data contained in this archive are select model output of the WRF-AHW ensemble simulations examined by Fischer et al. (2022). Here, select hourly WRF output is stored in netCDF format on storm-centered cylindrical grids for the innermo…
View article: Atmospheric River Reconnaissance 2021: A Review
Atmospheric River Reconnaissance 2021: A Review Open
Atmospheric River Reconnaissance (AR Recon) is a targeted campaign that complements other sources of observational data, forming part of a diverse observing system. AR Recon 2021 operated for ten weeks from January 13 to March 22, with 29.…
Impact of Atmospheric River Reconnaissance Dropsonde Data on the Assimilation of Satellite Data in GFS Open
Earth and Space Science Open Archive This preprint has been submitted to and is under consideration at Geophysical Research Letters. ESSOAr is a venue for early communication or feedback before peer review. Data may be preliminary.Learn mo…
Validation of Ensemble-Based Probabilistic Tropical Cyclone Intensity Change Open
Although there has been substantial improvement to numerical weather prediction models, accurate predictions of tropical cyclone rapid intensification (RI) remain elusive. The processes that govern RI, such as convection, may be inherently…
View article: Forecast Errors and Uncertainties in Atmospheric Rivers
Forecast Errors and Uncertainties in Atmospheric Rivers Open
A key aim of observational campaigns is to sample atmosphere–ocean phenomena to improve understanding of these phenomena, and in turn, numerical weather prediction. In early 2018 and 2019, the Atmospheric River Reconnaissance (AR Recon) ca…
A Feature-Based Approach to Classifying Summertime Potential Vorticity Streamers Linked to Rossby Wave Breaking in the North Atlantic Basin Open
This study examines climatological potential vorticity streamer (PVS) activity associated with Rossby wave breaking (RWB), which can impact TC activity in the subtropical North Atlantic (NATL) basin via moisture and wind anomalies. PVSs ar…
Using persistent homology to quantify a diurnal cycle in hurricanes Open
The diurnal cycle of tropical cyclones (TCs) is a daily cycle in clouds that appears in satellite images and may have implications for TC structure and intensity. The diurnal pattern can be seen in infrared (IR) satellite imagery as cyclic…
The Impact of Initial Condition and Warm Conveyor Belt Forecast Uncertainty on Variability in the Downstream Waveguide in an ECWMF Case Study Open
Perturbations to the potential vorticity (PV) waveguide, which can result from latent heat release within the warm conveyor belt (WCB) of midlatitude cyclones, can lead to the downstream radiation of Rossby waves, and in turn high-impact w…
Investigating the Factors That Contribute to African Easterly Wave Intensity Forecast Uncertainty in the ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System Open
Although there have been numerous studies documenting the processes/environments that lead to the intensification of African easterly waves (AEWs), only a few of these studies investigated the effect of those processes or the environment o…
Using Persistent Homology to Quantify a Diurnal Cycle in Hurricane Felix Open
The diurnal cycle of tropical cyclones (TCs) is a daily cycle in clouds that appears in satellite images and may have implications for TC structure and intensity. The diurnal pattern can be seen in infrared (IR) satellite imagery as cyclic…
Impacts of Targeted AERI and Doppler Lidar Wind Retrievals on Short-Term Forecasts of the Initiation and Early Evolution of Thunderstorms Open
The ability of Atmospheric Emitted Radiance Interferometer (AERI) and Doppler lidar (DL) wind profile observations to impact short-term forecasts of convection is explored by assimilating retrievals into a partially cycled convection-allow…
Tropical Cyclone Track Sensitivity in Deformation Steering Flow Open
Previous studies have suggested that tropical cyclones (TCs) in deformation steering flows can be associated with large position errors and uncertainty. The goal of this study is to evaluate the sensitivity of position forecasts for three …
Sensitivity of Dryline Convection Forecasts to Upstream Forecast Errors for Two Weakly Forced MPEX Cases Open
The sensitivity of convective forecasts along the Texas dryline to upstream forecast fields at earlier lead times is evaluated for two consecutive days (27–28 May) characterized by no clear synoptic forcing for convection initiation (CI) d…