Ryan Muncaster
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View article: A Diachronic Assessment of Advances in Seasonal Forecasting: Evolution of the APCC Multi‐Model Ensemble Prediction System Over the Last Two Decades
A Diachronic Assessment of Advances in Seasonal Forecasting: Evolution of the APCC Multi‐Model Ensemble Prediction System Over the Last Two Decades Open
Since its establishment in 2005, the APEC Climate Center (APCC) has pioneered advancements in seasonal climate prediction through its Multi‐Model Ensemble (MME) system, integrating the world's most diverse range of dynamical climate models…
View article: Stratospheric Nudging And Predictable Surface Impacts (SNAPSI): a protocol for investigating the role of stratospheric polar vortex disturbances in subseasonal to seasonal forecasts
Stratospheric Nudging And Predictable Surface Impacts (SNAPSI): a protocol for investigating the role of stratospheric polar vortex disturbances in subseasonal to seasonal forecasts Open
Major disruptions of the winter season, high-latitude stratospheric polar vortices can result in stratospheric anomalies that persist for months. These sudden stratospheric warming events are recognized as an important potential source of …
View article: Understanding sources of Northern Hemisphere uncertainty and forecast error in a medium‐range coupled ensemble sea‐ice prediction system
Understanding sources of Northern Hemisphere uncertainty and forecast error in a medium‐range coupled ensemble sea‐ice prediction system Open
The Global Ensemble Prediction System (GEPS) of Environment and Climate Change Canada was recently upgraded to a coupled atmosphere, ocean, and sea‐ice version from an uncoupled atmosphere‐only system. This has been operational since July …
View article: Comment on gmd-2021-394
Comment on gmd-2021-394 Open
Abstract. Major disruptions of the winter season, high-latitude, stratospheric polar vortices can result in stratospheric anomalies that persist for months. These sudden stratospheric warming events are recognized as an important potential…
View article: Comment on gmd-2021-394
Comment on gmd-2021-394 Open
Abstract. Major disruptions of the winter season, high-latitude stratospheric polar vortices can result in stratospheric anomalies that persist for months. These sudden stratospheric warming events are recognized as an important potential …
View article: Stratospheric Nudging And Predictable Surface Impacts (SNAPSI): A Protocol for Investigating the Role of the Stratospheric Polar Vortex in Subseasonal to Seasonal Forecasts
Stratospheric Nudging And Predictable Surface Impacts (SNAPSI): A Protocol for Investigating the Role of the Stratospheric Polar Vortex in Subseasonal to Seasonal Forecasts Open
Major disruptions of the winter season, high-latitude, stratospheric polar vortices can result in stratospheric anomalies that persist for months. These sudden stratospheric warming events are recognized as an important potential source of…
View article: A 10 km North American precipitation and land-surface reanalysis based on the GEM atmospheric model
A 10 km North American precipitation and land-surface reanalysis based on the GEM atmospheric model Open
Environment and Climate Change Canada has initiated the production of a 1980–2018, 10 km, North American precipitation and surface reanalysis. ERA-Interim is used to initialize the Global Deterministic Reforecast System (GDRS) at a 39 km r…
View article: Impact of Initialized Land Surface Temperature and Snowpack on Subseasonal to Seasonal Prediction Project, Phase I (LS4P-I): organization and experimental design
Impact of Initialized Land Surface Temperature and Snowpack on Subseasonal to Seasonal Prediction Project, Phase I (LS4P-I): organization and experimental design Open
Subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) prediction, especially the prediction of extreme hydroclimate events such as droughts and floods, is not only scientifically challenging, but also has substantial societal impacts. Motivated by preliminary stu…
View article: Comment on hess-2021-41
Comment on hess-2021-41 Open
Abstract. Environment and Climate Change Canada has initiated the production of a 1980–2018, 10 km, North American precipitation and surface reanalysis. ERA-Interim is used to initialize the Global Deterministic Reforecast System (GDRS) at…
View article: Comment on gmd-2020-329
Comment on gmd-2020-329 Open
Abstract. Subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) prediction, especially the prediction of extreme hydroclimate events such as droughts and floods, is not only scientifically challenging, but also has substantial societal impacts. Motivated by preli…
View article: A 10 km North American Precipitation and Land SurfaceReanalysis Based on the GEM Atmospheric Model
A 10 km North American Precipitation and Land SurfaceReanalysis Based on the GEM Atmospheric Model Open
Environment and Climate Change Canada has initiated the production of a 1980–2018, 10 km, North American precipitation and surface reanalysis. ERA-Interim is used to initialize the Global Deterministic Reforecast System (GDRS) at a 39 km r…
View article: Impact of Initialized Land Surface Temperature and Snowpack on Subseasonal toSeasonal Prediction Project, Phase I (LS4P-I): Organization and Experimental design
Impact of Initialized Land Surface Temperature and Snowpack on Subseasonal toSeasonal Prediction Project, Phase I (LS4P-I): Organization and Experimental design Open
Sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) prediction, especially the prediction of extreme hydroclimate events such as droughts and floods, is not only scientifically challenging but has substantial societal impacts. Motivated by preliminary studies,…
View article: Supplementary material to "Impact of Initialized Land Surface Temperature and Snowpack on Subseasonal toSeasonal Prediction Project, Phase I (LS4P-I): Organization and Experimental design"
Supplementary material to "Impact of Initialized Land Surface Temperature and Snowpack on Subseasonal toSeasonal Prediction Project, Phase I (LS4P-I): Organization and Experimental design" Open
Table S1: Output List required for the LS4P-I S1.1 Monthly mean 3D profile variables [over the entire globe for ESMs] (Levels: [1000-100 hPa] standard output) Variable name Abbreviation Unit Frequency Geopotential height gh gpm Monthly ave…
View article: The Canadian Seasonal to Interannual Prediction System Version 2 (CanSIPSv2)
The Canadian Seasonal to Interannual Prediction System Version 2 (CanSIPSv2) Open
The second version of the Canadian Seasonal to Interannual Prediction System (CanSIPSv2) was implemented operationally at Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) in July 2019. Like its predecessors, CanSIPSv2 applies a multimodel ense…