Suzana J. Camargo
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View article: Physical drivers of the November 2023 heatwave in Rio de Janeiro
Physical drivers of the November 2023 heatwave in Rio de Janeiro Open
Because extreme heat has not historically been a major hazard for the city of Rio de Janeiro, the November 2023 Heatwave magnitude and timing were staggering. Here we conduct a case study of reanalysis data and high-resolution projections …
View article: Relation of Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Activity With Observed and Predicted ENSO Indices
Relation of Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Activity With Observed and Predicted ENSO Indices Open
El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) influences global climate variability, including Atlantic tropical cyclone activity. The Niño‐3.4 index has long been used to characterize ENSO. However, new ENSO indices have been proposed in recent yea…
View article: Evaluation of Tropical Cyclone Characteristics in the SPEAR Large Ensemble Simulations
Evaluation of Tropical Cyclone Characteristics in the SPEAR Large Ensemble Simulations Open
Tropical cyclone (TC) activity in the Seamless System for Prediction and EArth System Research (SPEAR) model large ensemble simulations is evaluated in this study. The climatological analysis indicates that though biases exist, the model o…
View article: Multidecadal Fluctuations in the Observed ENSO‐Tropical Cyclone Teleconnection
Multidecadal Fluctuations in the Observed ENSO‐Tropical Cyclone Teleconnection Open
El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a skillful predictor for seasonal tropical cyclone (TC) activity in most TC basins. This study examines recent changes in the observed ENSO‐TC teleconnection strength, as measured by ENSO modulation o…
View article: Assessment of Tropical Cyclone Activity From a Statistical‐Dynamical Downscaling Model in the Northern Pacific and Atlantic Oceans
Assessment of Tropical Cyclone Activity From a Statistical‐Dynamical Downscaling Model in the Northern Pacific and Atlantic Oceans Open
This study investigates the interannual variability of tropical cyclones (TCs) from 1951 to 2019 using observational data sets and synthetic TCs generated by the Columbia HAZard (CHAZ) model, a hybrid TC risk model. Analysis of TC genesis …
View article: Environmental controls on future projections of western North Pacific tropical cyclone maximum intensity
Environmental controls on future projections of western North Pacific tropical cyclone maximum intensity Open
While the potential intensity (PI) theory provides a foundation for projecting future tropical cyclone (TC) intensity, uncertainties remain regarding how future TC maximum intensity will change due to potential offsets from interaction bet…
View article: Unified Forecast System Prediction of the Madden‐Julian Oscillation and Its Influence on East Pacific During Boreal Summer
Unified Forecast System Prediction of the Madden‐Julian Oscillation and Its Influence on East Pacific During Boreal Summer Open
This study evaluates the subseasonal‐to‐seasonal (S2S) prediction skill of the Madden‐Julian Oscillation (MJO) and its impacts on the east Pacific (EP) tropical cyclogenesis in the Unified Forecast System (UFS) during boreal summer (May–Oc…
View article: Relation of Atlantic tropical cyclone activity with observed and predicted ENSO indices
Relation of Atlantic tropical cyclone activity with observed and predicted ENSO indices Open
El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) influences global climate variability, including Atlantic tropical cyclone activity. The Niño-3.4 index has long been used to characterize ENSO. However, new ENSO indices have been proposed in recent yea…
View article: CYCLOPs: a Unified Framework for Surface Flux-Driven Cyclones Outside the Tropics
CYCLOPs: a Unified Framework for Surface Flux-Driven Cyclones Outside the Tropics Open
Cyclonic storms resembling tropical cyclones are sometimes observed well outside the tropics. These include medicanes, polar lows, subtropical cyclones, Kona storms, and possibly some cases of Australian East Coast Lows. Their structural s…
View article: On the Definition and Tracking of Tropical Cyclone Seeds from a Climate Perspective
On the Definition and Tracking of Tropical Cyclone Seeds from a Climate Perspective Open
International audience
View article: The Role of Tropical Cyclone Seeds on Modulating the Seasonal Cycle of Tropical Cyclone Frequency in the North Indian Ocean
The Role of Tropical Cyclone Seeds on Modulating the Seasonal Cycle of Tropical Cyclone Frequency in the North Indian Ocean Open
This study investigates the seasonal cycle of tropical cyclones (TCs) in the North Indian Ocean (NIO) using a multi‐stage framework of tropical cyclogenesis that considers the TC seeds and TCs separately. We find that the May–June (MJ) pre…
View article: MJO‐TC Teleconnections and Their Influence on North American Precipitation: Implications for Subseasonal Prediction
MJO‐TC Teleconnections and Their Influence on North American Precipitation: Implications for Subseasonal Prediction Open
This study investigates the impact of the Madden‐Julian Oscillation (MJO) on North American summer precipitation, focusing on tropical cyclones (TCs). Using observations and state‐of‐the‐art subseasonal‐to‐seasonal (S2S) models, the influe…
View article: Scenario set-up and the new CMIP6-based climate-related forcings provided within the third round of the Inter-Sectoral Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP3b, group I and II)
Scenario set-up and the new CMIP6-based climate-related forcings provided within the third round of the Inter-Sectoral Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP3b, group I and II) Open
This paper describes the climate-related forcings (CRFs) provided within the 'b' part of the third simulation round of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP3b). While ISIMIP3a comprises historical impact models si…
View article: Using the Moist Static Energy Variance Budget to Evaluate Tropical Cyclones in Climate Models against Reanalyses and Satellite Observations
Using the Moist Static Energy Variance Budget to Evaluate Tropical Cyclones in Climate Models against Reanalyses and Satellite Observations Open
Tropical cyclones (TCs) have been investigated in general circulation models (GCMs) as well as reanalyses. However, it is known that GCMs and reanalyses struggle to accurately represent TCs and have biases in the TC frequency and intensity…
View article: Subseasonal Prediction of Tropical Cyclone Precipitation
Subseasonal Prediction of Tropical Cyclone Precipitation Open
The accurate prediction of tropical cyclone precipitation (TCP) at an extended range could be crucial to mitigate the impacts of TC-related flooding. This study examines probabilistic predictions of weekly accumulated TCP and total precipi…
View article: Navigating and attributing uncertainty in future tropical cyclone risk estimates
Navigating and attributing uncertainty in future tropical cyclone risk estimates Open
Future tropical cyclone risks will evolve with climate change and socioeconomic development, entailing substantial uncertainties. An uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of these risks is vital, yet the chosen model setup influences outcom…
View article: Physical Drivers of the November 2023 Heatwave in Rio de Janeiro
Physical Drivers of the November 2023 Heatwave in Rio de Janeiro Open
As extreme heat has not historically been a major hazard for the city of Rio de Janeiro, the November 2023 Heatwave magnitude and timing were staggering. Here we conduct a case study of reanalysis data and high-resolution projections to ex…
View article: Using Machine Learning to Generate a GISS ModelE Calibrated Physics Ensemble (CPE)
Using Machine Learning to Generate a GISS ModelE Calibrated Physics Ensemble (CPE) Open
A neural network (NN) surrogate of the NASA GISS ModelE atmosphere (version E3) is trained on a perturbed parameter ensemble (PPE) spanning 45 physics parameters and 36 outputs. The NN is leveraged in a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) Baye…
View article: The response of tropical cyclone hazard to natural and forced patterns of warming
The response of tropical cyclone hazard to natural and forced patterns of warming Open
This study quantifies the influence of the pattern of sea surface temperature change in the tropical Pacific on tropical cyclone hazard. After downscaling a climate model with an “El Niño-like” forced response, it is found that the “El Niñ…
View article: High-Resolution Model Intercomparison Project phase 2 (HighResMIP2) towards CMIP7
High-Resolution Model Intercomparison Project phase 2 (HighResMIP2) towards CMIP7 Open
Robust projections and predictions of climate variability and change, particularly at regional scales, rely on the driving processes being represented with fidelity in model simulations. Consequently, the role of enhanced horizontal resolu…
View article: Trends and ENSO-related variability in Atlantic tropical cyclone intensity and intensification
Trends and ENSO-related variability in Atlantic tropical cyclone intensity and intensification Open
This study examined trends and ENSO-related variability in Atlantic tropical cyclone intensity, focusing on 24-h intensification, lifetime maximum intensity (LMI), and rapid intensification (RI) in best-track data during the period 1982–20…
View article: Thank You to Our 2024 Reviewers
Thank You to Our 2024 Reviewers Open
On behalf of the journal, AGU, and the scientific community, the editors of Geophysical Research Letters would like to sincerely thank those who reviewed manuscripts in 2024. The hours reading and commenting on manuscripts not only improve…
View article: Improving analogues-based detection & attribution approaches for hurricanes
Improving analogues-based detection & attribution approaches for hurricanes Open
This paper presents a proof of concept for a new analogue-based framework for the detection and attribution of hurricane-related hazards. This framework addresses two important limitations of existing analogue-based methodologies: the lack…
View article: A More La Niña–Like Response to Radiative Forcing after Flux Adjustment in CESM2
A More La Niña–Like Response to Radiative Forcing after Flux Adjustment in CESM2 Open
In response to greenhouse gas forcing, most coupled global climate models project the tropical Pacific SST trend toward an “El Niño–like” state, with a reduced zonal SST gradient and a weakened Walker circulation. However, observations ove…
View article: Physical Drivers of the November 2023 Heatwave in Rio de Janeiro
Physical Drivers of the November 2023 Heatwave in Rio de Janeiro Open
As extreme heat has not historically been a major hazard for the city of Rio de Janeiro, the November 2023 Heatwave magnitude and timing were staggering. Here we conduct a case study of reanalysis data and high-resolution projections to ex…
View article: A Unified Framework for Surface Flux-Driven Cyclones Outside the Tropics
A Unified Framework for Surface Flux-Driven Cyclones Outside the Tropics Open
Cyclonic storms resembling tropical cyclones are sometimes observed well outside the tropics. These include medicanes, polar lows, subtropical cyclones, Kona storms, and possibly some cases of Australian East Coast cyclones. Their structur…
View article: Improving Analogues-Based Detection & Attribution Approaches for Hurricanes
Improving Analogues-Based Detection & Attribution Approaches for Hurricanes Open
This paper presents a proof of concept for a new analogue- based framework for the detection and attribution of hurricane-related hazards. This framework addresses two important limitations of existing analogue-based methodologies: the lac…
View article: Understanding Tropical Cyclones in the Anthropocene: Physics, Simulations, and Attribution
Understanding Tropical Cyclones in the Anthropocene: Physics, Simulations, and Attribution Open
International audience
View article: Tropical thermocline helps power Pacific equatorial upwelling
Tropical thermocline helps power Pacific equatorial upwelling Open
Upwelling in the equatorial Pacific Ocean exerts a primary influence on the Earth’s climate, but there is great uncertainty on whether this influence will intensify or weaken under global warming. The dominant dynamical theory of equatoria…