Sebastian Sippel
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View article: Emergence of strong trends in humid heat intensity and duration in recent decades over South Asia
Emergence of strong trends in humid heat intensity and duration in recent decades over South Asia Open
South Asia experiences the hottest temperatures in the pre-monsoon season, followed by intense humid heat during the early summer monsoon. We examine trends and drivers of humid heat extremes in both seasons. We find that since early 2000s…
View article: The impact of aerosol forcing on the statistical attribution of heatwaves
The impact of aerosol forcing on the statistical attribution of heatwaves Open
View article: Externally forced circulation changes amplify mid-latitude regional heat extremes in climate model nudged-circulation experiments
Externally forced circulation changes amplify mid-latitude regional heat extremes in climate model nudged-circulation experiments Open
Large-scale atmospheric circulation changes have strongly modulated the frequency and intensity of regional heat extremes in the NH mid-latitudes over recent decades. But whether these changes are due to external forcing or internal variab…
View article: Externally forced circulation changes amplify mid-latitude regional heat extremes in climate model nudged-circulation experiments
Externally forced circulation changes amplify mid-latitude regional heat extremes in climate model nudged-circulation experiments Open
Large-scale atmospheric circulation changes have strongly modulated the frequency and intensity of regional heat extremes in the NH mid-latitudes over recent decades. But whether these changes are due to external forcing or internal variab…
View article: Combination of Internal Variability and Forced Response Reconciles Observed 2023–2024 Warming
Combination of Internal Variability and Forced Response Reconciles Observed 2023–2024 Warming Open
The record‐breaking global mean surface temperature (GMST) in 2023 and 2024 came as a surprise to the scientific community, raising the question whether it provides evidence for a recent abrupt increase in the forced global warming rate. H…
View article: Forced Component Estimation Statistical Method Intercomparison Project (ForceSMIP)
Forced Component Estimation Statistical Method Intercomparison Project (ForceSMIP) Open
View article: The contribution of circulation changes to summer temperature trends in the northern hemisphere mid-latitudes: A multi-method quantification
The contribution of circulation changes to summer temperature trends in the northern hemisphere mid-latitudes: A multi-method quantification Open
The increase in summer temperature and heat extremes is well documented and attributed to anthropogenic climate change. There is, however, still a vivid debate about the influence of atmospheric circulation changes on summer temperatures a…
View article: Flash drought impacts on global ecosystems amplified by extreme heat
Flash drought impacts on global ecosystems amplified by extreme heat Open
Flash droughts—characterized by their rapid onset—can cause devastating socioeconomic and agricultural damage. During such events, soil moisture depletion is driven not only by precipitation shortages but also by the elevated atmospheric m…
View article: Detecting Anthropogenically Induced Changes in Extreme and Seasonal Evapotranspiration Observations
Detecting Anthropogenically Induced Changes in Extreme and Seasonal Evapotranspiration Observations Open
Flash droughts are rapid-onset droughts that develop within days to a week. However, they are rarely studied through the lens of evapotranspiration (ET), the dominant flux driving changes in terrestrial water storage during such events. He…
View article: Record-breaking extremes in a warming climate
Record-breaking extremes in a warming climate Open
View article: Combination of Internal Variability and Forced Response Reconciles Observed 2023-2024 Warming
Combination of Internal Variability and Forced Response Reconciles Observed 2023-2024 Warming Open
View article: Constraining the time of emergence of anthropogenic signal in the global land carbon sink
Constraining the time of emergence of anthropogenic signal in the global land carbon sink Open
The global land carbon sink has increased since the preindustrial period, driven by increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration and climate change. However, detecting these anthropogenic signals in the global land carbon sink is challenging d…
View article: Increases in extreme ET leading to a higher risk of flash droughts
Increases in extreme ET leading to a higher risk of flash droughts Open
Evapotranspiration (ET) is a crucial process liking the surface energy balance, the hydrological and the carbon cycles. However, ET often remains underexplored due to climate model limitations as well as sparse and poor observational cover…
View article: Where is the probability of the next record-shattering extreme highest?
Where is the probability of the next record-shattering extreme highest? Open
Global mean temperatures are currently warming at a rate unprecedented in the observational record and most likely in millennia. Europe has experienced one of the highest warming rates globally in the last three decades. The high warming r…
View article: Early-twentieth-century cold bias in ocean surface temperature observations
Early-twentieth-century cold bias in ocean surface temperature observations Open
The observed temperature record, which combines sea surface temperatures with near-surface air temperatures over land, is crucial for understanding climate variability and change. However, early records of global mean surface temperature a…
View article: Attributing floods to anthropogenic climate change using a hydrological model forced with climate simulations under nudged atmospheric circulation
Attributing floods to anthropogenic climate change using a hydrological model forced with climate simulations under nudged atmospheric circulation Open
Anthropogenic climate change can affect wide-spread river floods through changes in atmospheric circulation patterns and thermodynamic effects. Changes of atmospheric circulation patterns due to climate change are rather uncertain, while t…
View article: Multi-method quantification of the contribution of circulation changes to summer temperature trends in the northern hemispheric mid-latitudes
Multi-method quantification of the contribution of circulation changes to summer temperature trends in the northern hemispheric mid-latitudes Open
Observed summer temperature trends differ strongly around the northern hemispheric latitudes. Besides changes in aerosol emissions, changes in atmospheric circulation patterns - whether forced or not - are expected to contribute to conside…
View article: Artificial intelligence for modeling and understanding extreme weather and climate events
Artificial intelligence for modeling and understanding extreme weather and climate events Open
In recent years, artificial intelligence (AI) has deeply impacted various fields, including Earth system sciences, by improving weather forecasting, model emulation, parameter estimation, and the prediction of extreme events. The latter co…
View article: Where and when will the next record-breaking precipitation disaster occur?
Where and when will the next record-breaking precipitation disaster occur? Open
Climate change increases the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation over most of the global land, and flood impacts associated with extreme precipitation lead to major damage to society, economy, and ecosystems. Record-high preci…
View article: The Impact of Aerosol Forcing on the Statistical Attribution of Heatwaves
The Impact of Aerosol Forcing on the Statistical Attribution of Heatwaves Open
View article: Early-twentieth-century cold bias in ocean surface temperature observations
Early-twentieth-century cold bias in ocean surface temperature observations Open
View article: Inequality in human development amplifies climate-related disaster risk
Inequality in human development amplifies climate-related disaster risk Open
The severity of climate disaster impacts is shaped not only by the intensity of the events themselves but also by the exposure, vulnerability, and adaptive capac- ity of affected communities. The lack of globally comparable data integratin…
View article: A Distinct Role for Aerosol and GHG Forcing in Historical CMIP6 Evapotranspiration Trends
A Distinct Role for Aerosol and GHG Forcing in Historical CMIP6 Evapotranspiration Trends Open
Evapotranspiration (ET) is crucial for the global water balance, plant growth, and freshwater availability. It connects the surface water balance with surface energy fluxes, making its accurate representation vital for climate projections.…
View article: Enhanced global carbon cycle sensitivity to tropical temperature linked to internal climate variability
Enhanced global carbon cycle sensitivity to tropical temperature linked to internal climate variability Open
The sensitivity of atmospheric CO 2 growth rate to tropical temperature (γ T ) has almost doubled between 1959 and 2011, a trend that has been linked to increasing drought in the tropics. However, γ T has declined since then. Understanding…
View article: Increasing extreme precipitation variability plays a key role in future record-shattering event probability
Increasing extreme precipitation variability plays a key role in future record-shattering event probability Open
Climate events that break records by large margins are a threat to society and ecosystems. Climate change is expected to increase the probability of such events, but quantifying these probabilities is challenging due to natural variability…
View article: Broadening the scope of anthropogenic influence in extreme event attribution
Broadening the scope of anthropogenic influence in extreme event attribution Open
As extreme event attribution (EEA) matures, explaining the impacts of extreme events has risen to be a key focus for attribution scientists. Studies of this type usually assess the contribution of anthropogenic climate change to observed i…
View article: Emergence of strong trends in humid heat intensity and duration in recent decades over South Asia
Emergence of strong trends in humid heat intensity and duration in recent decades over South Asia Open
South Asia’s climate features the hottest temperatures in the pre-monsoon season followed by intense humid heat after the onset of the summer monsoons. Here, we examine trends and drivers of humid heat extremes during the monsoon and pre-m…
View article: Could an extremely cold central European winter such as 1963 happen again despite climate change?
Could an extremely cold central European winter such as 1963 happen again despite climate change? Open
Central European winters have warmed markedly since the mid-20th century. Yet cold winters are still associated with severe societal impacts on energy systems, infrastructure, and public health. It is therefore crucial to anticipate storyl…
View article: AI for Extreme Event Modeling and Understanding: Methodologies and Challenges
AI for Extreme Event Modeling and Understanding: Methodologies and Challenges Open
In recent years, artificial intelligence (AI) has deeply impacted various fields, including Earth system sciences. Here, AI improved weather forecasting, model emulation, parameter estimation, and the prediction of extreme events. However,…
View article: Biodiversity and Climate Extremes: Known Interactions and Research Gaps
Biodiversity and Climate Extremes: Known Interactions and Research Gaps Open
Climate extremes are on the rise. Impacts of extreme climate and weather events on ecosystem services and ultimately human well‐being can be partially attenuated by the organismic, structural, and functional diversity of the affected land …