Sergey Kravtsov
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View article: Comparison of multidecadal variability in climate reanalyses and global models
Comparison of multidecadal variability in climate reanalyses and global models Open
The upward trend of observed global surface air temperature anomalies exhibits a well-known multidecadal undulation, largely muted in the state-of-the-art climate models. We provide a comprehensive spatiotemporal description of these diffe…
View article: Emulation and S2S probabilistic prediction of 2-m temperature and precipitation over the global domain using linear inverse modeling
Emulation and S2S probabilistic prediction of 2-m temperature and precipitation over the global domain using linear inverse modeling Open
We developed a data-driven system for joint prediction of daily precipitation (Pr) and near-surface temperature (T2m) over the global domain by utilizing NASA’s satellite observations and the associated reanalysis products, with the …
View article: Global-Scale Multidecadal Variability in Climate Models and Observations. Part I: Forced Response
Global-Scale Multidecadal Variability in Climate Models and Observations. Part I: Forced Response Open
Twentieth-century climate variations exhibit, on top of a secular global warming trend, multidecadal variability with globally coherent patterns. Identifying and attributing such patterns requires one to combine modern reanalyses of atmosp…
View article: Global-scale multidecadal variability in climate models and observations. Part II: The stadium wave
Global-scale multidecadal variability in climate models and observations. Part II: The stadium wave Open
A significant fraction of multidecadal fluctuations in the reanalysis-based gridded estimates of the observed climate variability over the past century and a half lie outside of the envelope generated by ensembles of climate-model historic…
View article: Identification of forced response and internal climate variability using ensemble linear dynamical modes
Identification of forced response and internal climate variability using ensemble linear dynamical modes Open
The problem of accurate detection of climate response to slow external forcing in 19-21 centuries is complicated by the presence of internal climate variability, which can also exhibit slow (decadal and multidecadal) large-scale dynamics, …
View article: Forced response and internal variability in ensembles of climate simulations: Identification and analysis using Linear Dynamical Mode decomposition
Forced response and internal variability in ensembles of climate simulations: Identification and analysis using Linear Dynamical Mode decomposition Open
Estimating climate response to observed and projected increases in atmospheric greenhouse gases usually requires averaging among multiple independent simulations of computationally expensive global climate models to filter out the spontane…
View article: The Moist Quasi-Geostrophic Coupled Model: MQ-GCM 2.0
The Moist Quasi-Geostrophic Coupled Model: MQ-GCM 2.0 Open
This paper contains a description of recent changes to the formulation and numerical implementation of the Quasi-Geostrophic Coupled Model (Q-GCM), which constitute a major update of the previous version of the model (Hogg et al., 2014). T…
View article: Reply on RC1
Reply on RC1 Open
This paper contains a description of recent changes to the formulation and numerical implementation of the Quasi-Geostrophic Coupled Model (Q-GCM), which constitute a major update of the previous version of the model (Hogg et al., 2014). T…
View article: Reply on RC2
Reply on RC2 Open
Abstract. This paper contains a description of recent changes to the formulation and numerical implementation of the Quasi-Geostrophic Coupled Model (Q-GCM), which constitute a major update of the previous version of the model (Hogg et al.…
View article: Comment on gmd-2021-160
Comment on gmd-2021-160 Open
Abstract. This paper contains a description of recent changes to the formulation and numerical implementation of the Quasi-Geostrophic Coupled Model (Q-GCM), which constitute a major update of the previous version of the model (Hogg et al.…
View article: Lorenz-63 Model as a Metaphor for Transient Complexity in Climate
Lorenz-63 Model as a Metaphor for Transient Complexity in Climate Open
Dynamical systems like the one described by the three-variable Lorenz-63 model may serve as metaphors for complex natural systems such as climate systems. When these systems are perturbed by external forcing factors, they tend to relax bac…
View article: A Moist Quasi-Geostrophic Coupled Model: MQ-GCM2.0
A Moist Quasi-Geostrophic Coupled Model: MQ-GCM2.0 Open
This paper contains a description of recent changes to the formulation and numerical implementation of the Quasi-Geostrophic Coupled Model (Q-GCM), which constitute a major update of the previous version of the model (Hogg et al., 2014). T…
View article: On Time Scales of Intrinsic Oscillations in the Climate System
On Time Scales of Intrinsic Oscillations in the Climate System Open
Proxy temperature data records featuring local time series, regional averages from areas all around the globe, as well as global averages, are analyzed using the Slow Feature Analysis (SFA) method. As explained in the paper, SFA is much mo…
View article: Application of linear dynamical mode decomposition to ensembles of climate simulations
Application of linear dynamical mode decomposition to ensembles of climate simulations Open
<p>An analysis of the climate system is usually complicated by its very high dimensionality and its nonlinearity which impedes spatial and time scale separation. An even more difficult problem is to obtain separate estimates of the c…
View article: Singular Vortices on a Beta-Plane: A Brief Review and Recent Results
Singular Vortices on a Beta-Plane: A Brief Review and Recent Results Open
Purpose. This paper briefly reviews the theory of singular vortices (SV) on a beta-plane.
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\nMethods and Results. The primary focus of the paper is on a long-term evolution of an individual SV: the governing equations and integrals of mo…
View article: Application of linear dynamical mode decomposition to surface air temperature in 20th century
Application of linear dynamical mode decomposition to surface air temperature in 20th century Open
<p>According to recent study [1], the current state-of-the-art climate models lack the substantial part of internal multidecadal climate signal which is observed in the 20th century surface air temperature reanalysis data as a global…
View article: Dynamics and Predictability of Hemispheric-Scale Multidecadal Climate Variability in an Observationally Constrained Mechanistic Model
Dynamics and Predictability of Hemispheric-Scale Multidecadal Climate Variability in an Observationally Constrained Mechanistic Model Open
This paper addresses the dynamics of internal hemispheric-scale multidecadal climate variability by postulating an energy-balance (EBM) model comprising two deep-ocean oscillators in the Atlantic and Pacific basins, coupled through their s…
View article: Global-Scale Multidecadal Variability Missing in State-of-the-Art Climate Models
Global-Scale Multidecadal Variability Missing in State-of-the-Art Climate Models Open
Reliability of future global warming projections depends on how well climate models reproduce the observed climate change over the twentieth century. In this regard, deviations of the model simulated climate change from observations, such …
View article: Global-scale multidecadal variability missing in state-of-the-art climate models
Global-scale multidecadal variability missing in state-of-the-art climate models Open
Reliability of future global warming projections depends on how well climate models reproduce the observed climate change over the twentieth century. In this regard, deviations of the model-simulated climate change from observations, such …
View article: Synchronization and causality across time scales in El Niño Southern Oscillation
Synchronization and causality across time scales in El Niño Southern Oscillation Open
Statistical inference of causal interactions and synchronization between dynamical phenomena evolving on different temporal scales is of vital importance for better understanding and prediction of natural complex systems such as the Earth’…
View article: Pronounced differences between observed and CMIP5‐simulated multidecadal climate variability in the twentieth century
Pronounced differences between observed and CMIP5‐simulated multidecadal climate variability in the twentieth century Open
Identification and dynamical attribution of multidecadal climate undulations to either variations in external forcings or to internal sources is one of the most important topics of modern climate science, especially in conjunction with the…
View article: On semi‐empirical decomposition of multidecadal climate variability into forced and internally generated components
On semi‐empirical decomposition of multidecadal climate variability into forced and internally generated components Open
This paper combines CMIP5 historical simulations and observations of surface temperature to investigate relative contributions of forced and internal climate variability to long‐term climate trends. A suite of estimated forced signals base…
View article: Daily Maximum Temperatures quantile mapped to observations (realizations 41-50)
Daily Maximum Temperatures quantile mapped to observations (realizations 41-50) Open
Simulated daily maximum surface temperature quantile mapped to observations (realizations 41-50)
View article: Daily Maximum Temperatures (realizations 1-10)
Daily Maximum Temperatures (realizations 1-10) Open
Simulated daily maximum surface temperature (realizations 1-10)
View article: A virtual climate library of surface temperature over North America for 1979–2005
A virtual climate library of surface temperature over North America for 1979–2005 Open
Simulated daily maximum and daily minimum surface air temperatures 1979-2015
View article: Daily Maximum Temperatures (realizations 21-30)
Daily Maximum Temperatures (realizations 21-30) Open
Simulated daily maximum surface temperature (realizations 21-30)