Simon C. Smith
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View article: Underlying Inflation: An Ensemble Averaging Approach
Underlying Inflation: An Ensemble Averaging Approach Open
Underlying inflation (ULI) is the rate of inflation we expect to prevail in the absence of resource slack, supply shocks, and other temporary disturbances to inflation. ULI is therefore critical to determining the contour of inflation. How…
View article: New tools to monitor inflation in real time
New tools to monitor inflation in real time Open
From 1995 through February 2020 – a period when inflation was relatively low and stable – the rate of monthly total Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation was tightly related to a measure of asymmetry in the distribution of pric…
View article: NGO Activism: Exposure vs. Influence
NGO Activism: Exposure vs. Influence Open
This paper studies how the timing of NGO activism shapes its effectiveness in influencing corporate behavior. Using data on 2,500 campaigns targeting U.S. firms, we show that campaigns timed at annual general meetings (AGMs) generate large…
View article: Nonlinear Phillips Curves
Nonlinear Phillips Curves Open
The slope of the Phillips curve flattened around the turn of the century. The slope, however, is also kinked (nonlinear) such that it is steeper in a tight labor market than in a more normal one. The magnitude of this kink means that the f…
View article: Imperialism after decolonization? British relations with Bahrain from the withdrawal East of Suez to the Iranian Revolution
Imperialism after decolonization? British relations with Bahrain from the withdrawal East of Suez to the Iranian Revolution Open
There is a growing consensus that the end of empire did not necessarily equate with a severing of imperial ties. Some historians have even argued that there was a shift from formal to informal empire in Britain’s relations with the emergin…
View article: Factor Selection and Structural Breaks
Factor Selection and Structural Breaks Open
We develop a new approach to select risk factors in an asset pricing model that allows the set to change at multiple unknown break dates. Using the six factors displayed in Table 1 since 1963, we document a marked shift towards parsimoniou…
View article: An Empire of Influence? British Relations with the United Arab Emirates in the 1970s
An Empire of Influence? British Relations with the United Arab Emirates in the 1970s Open
As historical debate has moved from an analysis of the end of empire to its aftermath and consequences, there has been growing emphasis on the retention by the colonial powers of a large measure of influence over their former dependencies.…
View article: Breaks in the Phillips Curve: Evidence from Panel Data
Breaks in the Phillips Curve: Evidence from Panel Data Open
We revisit time-variation in the Phillips curve, applying new Bayesian panel methods with breakpoints to US and European Union disaggregate data. Our approach allows us to accurately estimate both the number and timing of breaks in the Phi…
View article: Structural Breaks in Grouped Heterogeneity
Structural Breaks in Grouped Heterogeneity Open
Generating accurate forecasts in the presence of structural breaks requires careful management of bias-variance tradeoffs. Forecasting panel data under breaks offers the possibility to reduce parameter estimation error without inducing any…
View article: Imperialism after empire? Britain and Qatar in the aftermath of the withdrawal from East of Suez
Imperialism after empire? Britain and Qatar in the aftermath of the withdrawal from East of Suez Open
The existing historiography on relations between Britain and the states of Lower Gulf after British withdrawal from ‘East of Suez’ in 1971 suggests that the former imperial power successfully established an informal role in the 1970s and b…
View article: Have Risk Premia Vanished?
Have Risk Premia Vanished? Open
We apply a new methodology for identifying pervasive and discrete changes (“breaks”) in cross-sectional risk premia and find empirical evidence that these are economically important for understanding returns on US stocks. Size, value, and …
View article: Selfish Shareholders: Corporate Donations during COVID-19
Selfish Shareholders: Corporate Donations during COVID-19 Open
During the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, conflicting incentives caused most shareholders to adverse corporate social responsibility (CSR) –measured by firms’ charitable donations– since it would further burden firms’ already strained fin…
View article: The Shared Costs of Pursuing Shareholder Values
The Shared Costs of Pursuing Shareholder Values Open
We uncover latent conflicts among shareholders, showing how private reputational rents for a few impose losses on many. Exploiting predetermined Annual General Meeting dates relative to COVID-19 and the Russian invasion of Ukraine as exoge…
View article: Britain and the Arab Gulf after Empire: Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates, 1971-1981
Britain and the Arab Gulf after Empire: Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates, 1971-1981 Open
Although Britain's formal imperial role in the smaller, oil-rich sheikdoms of the Arab Gulf - Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates - ended in 1971, Britain continued to have a strong interest and continuing presence in the r…
View article: Failure and success in state formation: British policy towards the Federation of South Arabia and the United Arab Emirates
Failure and success in state formation: British policy towards the Federation of South Arabia and the United Arab Emirates Open
In the mid-1950s, the Governor of Aden, Sir Tom Hickinbotham, had championed the idea of rationalizing the disparate territories of the hinterland. His specific proposal centred on the creation of two federations in the Eastern and Western…
View article: Most Recent Changepoint Detection in Panel Data
Most Recent Changepoint Detection in Panel Data Open
Formulae display:?Mathematical formulae have been encoded as MathML and are displayed in this HTML version using MathJax in order to improve their display. Uncheck the box to turn MathJax off. This feature requires Javascript. Click on a f…
View article: Failure and success in state formation: British policy towards the Federation of South Arabia and the United Arab Emirates
Failure and success in state formation: British policy towards the Federation of South Arabia and the United Arab Emirates Open
Despite the apparent similarities in Britain's relationship with the Sheikhdoms of the Lower Gulf and the traditional states of southern Arabia, British policy-makers pursued contrasting policies towards the two sets of territories in the …
View article: Most recent changepoint detection in Panel data
Most recent changepoint detection in Panel data Open
Detecting recent changepoints in time-series can be important for short-term prediction, as we can then base predictions just on the data since the changepoint. In many applications we have panel data, consisting of many related univariate…
View article: The Wilson–Johnson Correspondence, 1964–69
The Wilson–Johnson Correspondence, 1964–69 Open
Less than a year after the assassination of President Kennedy brought Lyndon B. Johnson to the White House, Harold Wilson became British Prime Minister. Over the next four years, the two men governed their countries through unprecedented c…
View article: The Business of Decolonization: The Foreign Office, British Business, and the End of Empire in Kuwait and Qatar
The Business of Decolonization: The Foreign Office, British Business, and the End of Empire in Kuwait and Qatar Open
The Gulf States, while small in size, were of increasing economic and financial significance to the British economy in the post-war period. While the loss of India in 1947 reduced the strategic importance of the Gulf, this was more than co…