Explanipedia

Reconstructing Langevin systems from high‐ and low‐resolution time series using Euler and Hermite reconstructions Open

Stephen R. Carpenter · 2025

The ecological literature often features phenomenological dynamic models lacking robust validation against observational data. Reverse engineering ecological models from data is an alternative approach, where time series data are utilized …

Differential responses of coolwater fishes to a whole‐lake reduction of a warmwater thermal guild Open

Holly S. Embke, Stephen R. Carpenter, T. Douglas Beard, Giancarlo Coppola, Daniel A. Isermann , et al. · 2025

Climate change is transforming the ecology of lakes at a rapid pace, shifting some lakes toward warmwater‐dominant habitats. As a result, warmwater fishes are increasingly becoming more prevalent in lakes where they already existed, alteri…

A continental view of climate effects on lakes Open

Stephen R. Carpenter · 2025

A cautious approach to subsidies for environmental sustainability Open

Kathleen Segerson, Stephen Polasky, Marten Scheffer, U. Rashid Sumaila, Juan-Camilo Cárdenas , et al. · 2024

Transformational change is possible, but design and implementation must seek to avoid lock-in

Aquatic deoxygenation as a planetary boundary and key regulator of Earth system stability Open

Kevin C. Rose, Erica M. Ferrer, Stephen R. Carpenter, Sean A. Crowe, Sarah C. Donelan , et al. · 2024

Reconstructing Langevin systems from high and low-resolution time series using Euler and Hermite reconstructions Open

Babak M. S. Arani, Stephen R. Carpenter, Egbert H. van Nes · 2024

The ecological literature often features phenomenological dynamic models lacking robust validation against observational data. Reverse engineering is an alternative approach, where time series data are utilized to infer or fit a stochastic…

Stochastic dynamics of phycocyanin in years of contrasting phosphorus load Open

Stephen R. Carpenter, William A. Brock · 2024

Resilience, measured by the distribution of passage times between alternate states, indicates persistence of a state in stochastic dynamic systems such as blooms of cyanobacteria in lakes. We used high‐frequency datasets to compare the res…

Stochastic regimes can hide the attractors in data, reconstruction algorithms can reveal them Open

Babak M. S. Arani, Stephen R. Carpenter, Egbert H. van Nes, Ingrid A. van de Leemput, Chi Xu , et al. · 2024

Tipping points and alternative attractors have become an important focus of research and public discussions about the future of climate, ecosystems and societies. However, empirical evidence for the existence of alternative attractors rema…

Biosphere Futures: a database of social-ecological scenarios Open

Jan J. Kuiper, Liam Carpenter-Urquhart, Marta Berbés‐Blázquez, Elisa Oteros‐Rozas, Linna Fredström , et al. · 2024

T. Biosphere Futures (https://biospherefutures.net/) is a new online database to collect and discover scenario studies from across the world, with a specific focus on scenarios that explicitly incorporate interdependencies between humans a…

Can the planetary health concept save freshwater biodiversity and ecosystems? Open

Steven J. Cooke, Abigail J. Lynch, David Tickner, Robin Abell, Tatenda Dalu , et al. · 2024

Rivers, wetlands, lakes, and other freshwater ecosystems collectively cover only 1% of the Earth's surface. Yet, these ecosystems support a disproportionately large and vast array of biodiversity. Currently, these ecosystems face many thre…

Biosphere Futures: a database of social-ecological scenarios Open

Jan J. Kuiper, Liam Carpenter-Urquhart, Marta Berbés‐Blázquez, Elisa Oteros Rozas, Linna Fredström , et al. · 2023

Biosphere Futures (biospherefutures.net) is a new online database to collect and discover scenario studies from across the world, with a specific focus on scenarios that explicitly incorporate interdependencies between humans and their sup…

Response diversity as a sustainability strategy Open

Brian Walker, Anne‐Sophie Crépin, Magnus Nyström, John M. Anderies, Erik Andersson , et al. · 2023

Long-range dependence and extreme values of precipitation, phosphorus load, and Cyanobacteria Open

Stephen R. Carpenter, Mark R. Gahler, Christopher J. Kucharik, Emily H. Stanley · 2022

Extreme daily values of precipitation (1939–2021), discharge (1991–2021), phosphorus (P) load (1994–2021), and phycocyanin, a pigment of Cyanobacteria (June 1–September 15 of 2008–2021) are clustered as multi-day events for Lake Mendota, W…

Celebrating 25 Years of Ecosystems Open

Monica G. Turner, Stephen R. Carpenter · 2022

The programme on ecosystem change and society (PECS) – a decade of deepening social-ecological research through a place-based focus Open

Albert V. Norström, Bina Agarwal, Patricia Balvanera, Brigitte Baptiste, Elena M. Bennett , et al. · 2022

The Programme on Ecosystem Change and Society (PECS) was established in 2011, and is now one of the major international social-ecological systems (SES) research networks. During this time, SES research has undergone a phase of rapid growth…

<span>DOC</span>, grazers, and resilience of phytoplankton to enrichment Open

Stephen R. Carpenter, Michael L. Pace, Grace M. Wilkinson · 2022

Phytoplankton blooms often follow nutrient enrichment. Differences among lakes in light‐absorbing dissolved organic carbon (DOC) may shift bloom thresholds to higher nutrient loads and thereby increase resilience of lakes to enrichment. To…

Earth stewardship: Shaping a sustainable future through interacting policy and norm shifts Open

F. Stuart Chapin, Elke U. Weber, Elena M. Bennett, Reinette Biggs, Jeroen C.J.M. van den Bergh , et al. · 2022

Transformation toward a sustainable future requires an earth stewardship approach to shift society from its current goal of increasing material wealth to a vision of sustaining built, natural, human, and social capital—equitably distribute…

Resisting ecosystem transformation through an intensive whole‐lake fish removal experiment Open

Holly S. Embke, Stephen R. Carpenter, Daniel A. Isermann, Giancarlo Coppola, T. Douglas Beard , et al. · 2022

Lake ecosystems are shifting due to many drivers including climate change and landscape‐scale habitat disturbance, diminishing their potential to support some fisheries. Walleye Sander vitreus (Mitchill) populations, which support recreati…

The Report of the Ecological Society of America Committee on the Scientific Basis for Ecosystem Management Open

Norman L. Christensen, Ann M. Bartuska, James H. Brown, Stephen R. Carpenter, Carla D apos Antonio , et al. · 2021

Ecosystem management is management driven by explicit goals, executed by policies, protocols, and practices, and made adaptable by monitoring and research based on our best understanding of the ecological interactions and processes necessa…

A Bayesian Hidden Semi-Markov Model with Covariate-Dependent State Duration Parameters for High-Frequency Environmental Data Open

Shirley Rojas‐Salazar, Erin M. Schliep, Christopher K. Wikle, Emily H. Stanley, Stephen R. Carpenter , et al. · 2021

Environmental time series data observed at high frequencies can be studied with approaches such as hidden Markov and semi-Markov models (HMM and HSMM). HSMMs extend the HMM by explicitly modeling the time spent in each state. In a discrete…

Governance in the Face of Extreme Events: Lessons from Evolutionary Processes for Structuring Interventions, and the Need to Go Beyond Open

Simon A. Levin, John M. Anderies, W. Neil Adger, Scott Barrett, Elena M. Bennett , et al. · 2021

The increasing frequency of extreme events, exogenous and endogenous, poses challenges for our societies. The current pandemic is a case in point; but "once-in-a-century" weather events are also becoming more common, leading to erosion, wi…

Exit time as a measure of ecological resilience Open

Babak M. S. Arani, Stephen R. Carpenter, Leo Lahti, Egbert H. van Nes, Marten Scheffer · 2021

Estimating resilience in complex systems Resilience is an important concept in the study of critical transitions and tipping points in complex systems and is defined by the size of the disturbance that a system can endure before tipping in…

Resilience: insights from the U.S. LongTerm Ecological Research Network Open

Jane Cowles, Laura Templeton, John J. Battles, Peter J. Edmunds, R. C. Carpenter , et al. · 2021

Ecosystems are changing in complex and unpredictable ways, and analysis of these changes is facilitated by coordinated, long‐term research. Meeting diverse societal needs requires an understanding of what populations and communities will b…

Resilience: Now more than ever Open

Carl Folke, Stephen R. Carpenter, Thomas Elmqvist, Lance Gunderson, Brian Walker · 2021

Coupled human and natural systems: The evolution and applications of an integrated framework Open

Jianguo Liu, Thomas Dietz, Stephen R. Carpenter, William W. Taylor, Marina Alberti , et al. · 2021

Our future in the Anthropocene biosphere Open

Carl Folke, Stephen Polasky, Johan Rockström, Victor Galaz, Frances Westley , et al. · 2021

Governance in the Face of Extreme Events: Lessons from Evolutionary Processes for Structuring Interventions, and the Need to Go Beyond Open

Simon A. Levin, John M. Anderies, W. Neil Adger, Scott Barrett, Elena M. Bennett , et al. · 2021

How We Can Advance Ecosystem Stewardship Open

Stephen R. Carpenter · 2020

Corridors of Clarity: Four Principles to Overcome Uncertainty Paralysis in the Anthropocene Open

Stephen Polasky, Anne‐Sophie Crépin, Reinette Biggs, Stephen R. Carpenter, Carl Folke , et al. · 2020

Global environmental change challenges humanity because of its broad scale, long-lasting, and potentially irreversible consequences. Key to an effective response is to use an appropriate scientific lens to peer through the mist of uncertai…

Social dimensions of fertility behavior and consumption patterns in the Anthropocene Open

Scott Barrett, Aisha Dasgupta, Partha Dasgupta, W. Neil Adger, John M. Anderies , et al. · 2020

We consider two aspects of the human enterprise that profoundly affect the global environment: population and consumption. We show that fertility and consumption behavior harbor a class of externalities that have not been much noted in the…

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