Steven E. Bellan
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View article: Wild canids and felids differ in their reliance on reused travel routeways
Wild canids and felids differ in their reliance on reused travel routeways Open
Diverse factors, including environmental features and cognitive processes, can drive animals’ movements and space use, with far-reaching implications. For example, repeated use of individual-level travel routeways (directionally constraine…
View article: Simulations for designing and interpreting intervention trials in infectious diseases
Simulations for designing and interpreting intervention trials in infectious diseases Open
Background: Interventions in infectious diseases can have both direct effects on individuals who receive the intervention as well as indirect effects in the population. In addition, intervention combinations can have complex interactions a…
Downgrading disease transmission risk estimates using terminal importations Open
As emerging and re-emerging infectious arboviruses like dengue, chikungunya, and Zika threaten new populations worldwide, officials scramble to assess local severity and transmissibility, with little to no epidemiological history to draw u…
Likelihood Fitting and Dynamic Models I: Dynamic Model Fitting and Inference Robustness Open
An introduction to fitting of mechanistic transmission models to time series data using maximum likelihood estimation along with a discussion of model (or result) robustness.
Introduction to Infectious Disease Data Open
Introduction the types of infectious disease data and their collection.
Analyzing Vaccine Trials in Epidemics With Mild and Asymptomatic Infection Open
Vaccine efficacy against susceptibility to infection (VES), regardless of symptoms, is an important endpoint of vaccine trials for pathogens with a high proportion of asymptomatic infection, because such infections may contribute to onward…
Couple serostatus patterns in sub-Saharan Africa illuminate the relative roles of transmission rates and sexual network characteristics in HIV epidemiology Open
HIV prevalence has surpassed 30% in some African countries while peaking at less than 1% in others. The extent to which this variation is driven by biological factors influencing the HIV transmission rate or by variation in sexual network …
Analyzing Vaccine Trials in Epidemics with Mild and Asymptomatic Infection Open
Vaccine efficacy against susceptibility to infection (VE S ), regardless of symptoms, is an important endpoint of vaccine trials for pathogens with a high proportion of asymptomatic infection, as such infections may contribute to onward tr…
Competing Effects of Indirect Protection and Clustering on the Power of Cluster-Randomized Controlled Vaccine Trials Open
Power considerations for trials evaluating vaccines against infectious diseases are complicated by indirect protective effects of vaccination. While cluster-randomized controlled trials (cRCTs) are less statistically efficient than individ…
Downgrading disease transmission risk estimates using terminal importations Open
As emerging and re-emerging infectious diseases like dengue, Ebola, chikungunya, and Zika threaten new populations worldwide, officials scramble to assess local severity and transmissibility, with little to no epidemiological history to dr…
Impact of stochastically generated heterogeneity in hazard rates on individually randomized vaccine efficacy trials Open
Background/aims Network structure and individuals’ level of exposure to a pathogen can impact results from efficacy evaluation studies of interventions against infectious diseases. Heterogeneity in infection risk can cause randomized group…
Guiding Vaccine Efficacy Trial Design During Public Health Emergencies: An interactive web-based decision support tool Open
The design and execution of rigorous, fast, and ethical vaccine efficacy trials can be challenging during epidemics of emerging pathogens, such as the 2014-2016 Ebola virus and 2015-2016 Zika virus epidemics. Response to an urgent public h…
Introduction to Likelihood Open
This video lecture and slide set provides a clear and intuitive visual explanation of P value- and maximum likelihood-based inference and confidence interval derivation, using a simple example based on estimating HIV prevalence from a smal…
Introduction to Dynamic Modeling of Infectious Diseases Open
An introduction to infectious disease transmission modeling. Goals are for audience to be able to:1. Understand the natural history of infection 2. Explain SIR model formulation Define the basic reproduction number (R0) 3. Calculate vaccin…
Simulations for Designing and Interpreting Intervention Trials in Infectious Diseases Open
Here we urge the adoption of a new paradigm for the design and interpretation of intervention trials in infectious diseases, particularly in emerging infectious disease, that more accurately reflects the dynamics of the transmission proces…
Resource-driven encounters among consumers and implications for the spread of infectious disease Open
Animals share a variety of common resources, which can be a major driver of conspecific encounter rates. In this work, we implement a spatially explicit mathematical model for resource visitation behaviour in order to examine how changes i…
Quantifying ethical tradeoffs for vaccine efficacy trials during severe epidemics Open
Background During emerging epidemics of highly fatal diseases, rapid development and testing of new vaccines may be critical to curbing transmission and saving lives. However, the design of vaccine efficacy trials in such contexts may face…
Competing effects of indirect protection and clustering on the power of cluster-randomized controlled vaccine trials Open
Power considerations for trials evaluating vaccines against infectious diseases are complicated by indirect protective effects of vaccination. While cluster-randomized trials (cRCTs) are less statistically efficient than individually rando…
Early antiretroviral therapy and potent second-line drugs could decrease HIV incidence of drug resistance Open
Early initiation of antiretroviral therapy (ART) reduces the risk of drug-sensitive HIV transmission but may increase the transmission of drug-resistant HIV. We used a mathematical model to estimate the long-term population-level benefits …
Introduction to Likelihood Open
This video lecture and slide set provides a clear and intuitive visual explanation of P value- and maximum likelihood-based inference and confidence interval derivation, using a simple example based on estimating HIV prevalence from a smal…
Introduction to Dynamic Modeling of Infectious Diseases Open
An introduction to infectious disease transmission modeling. Goals are for audience to be able to:1. Understand the natural history of infection 2. Explain SIR model formulation Define the basic reproduction number (R0) 3. Calculate vaccin…
Correction: Impact of Age and Sex on CD4+ Cell Count Trajectories following Treatment Initiation: An Analysis of the Tanzanian HIV Treatment Database Open
[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0164148.].
Introduction to Likelihood Open
This video lecture and slide set provides a clear and intuitive visual explanation of P value- and maximum likelihood-based inference and confidence interval derivation, using a simple example based on estimating HIV prevalence from a smal…
International Clinics on Infectious Disease Dynamics and Data Open
This collection contains pedagogic material developed by the International Clinics on Infectious Disease Dynamics and Data (ICI3D). Through annual Clinics in South Africa and the United States, the ICI3D program trains junior researchers f…
AIDS cases and deaths data from Early antiretroviral therapy and potent second-line drugs could decrease HIV incidence of drug resistance Open
Annual AIDS cases and deaths data among MSM in San Francisco
Resource-Driven Encounters and the Induction of Disease Among Consumers Open
Submitted Manuscript 2016. Territorial animals share a variety of common resources, which can be a major driver of conspecific encounter rates. We examine how changes in resource availability influence the rate of encounters among individu…