Stuart McIntyre
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View article: Does Offender Supervision Reduce Re-Offending? Evidence from Novel Administrative Data
Does Offender Supervision Reduce Re-Offending? Evidence from Novel Administrative Data Open
ObjectivesWe ask whether supervision and license conditions for offenders reduce re-offending. Our goal is to leverage novel administrative data to estimate the causal effect of the 2014 Offender Rehabilitation Act (ORA), a government flag…
View article: Trading borders: the importance of interregional integration and economy size for the impact of secession
Trading borders: the importance of interregional integration and economy size for the impact of secession Open
This paper analyses the impact of secession on the ‘seceding’ and ‘successor’ regions. A two-regions computable general equilibrium model is initially calibrated to a set of synthetic datasets where the regions only differ in relative size…
View article: Monthly GDP Growth Estimates for the U.S. States
Monthly GDP Growth Estimates for the U.S. States Open
This paper develops a mixed frequency vector autoregressive (MF-VAR) model to produce nowcasts and historical estimates of monthly real state-level GDP for the 50 U.S. states, plus Washington DC, from 1964 through the present day. The MF-V…
View article: Does the provision of universal free school meals improve school attendance?
Does the provision of universal free school meals improve school attendance? Open
We examine the effects of universal free school meal (UFSM) policies on school attendance and healthrelated absences. We leverage UFSM implementation in Scotland where all pupils in the first three grades of primary schools became automati…
View article: Incorporating short data into large mixed-frequency vector autoregressions for regional nowcasting
Incorporating short data into large mixed-frequency vector autoregressions for regional nowcasting Open
Interest in regional economic issues coupled with advances in administrative data is driving the creation of new regional economic data. Many of these data series could be useful for nowcasting regional economic activity, but they suffer f…
View article: Rurality, socio‐economic disadvantage and educational mobility: A Scottish case study
Rurality, socio‐economic disadvantage and educational mobility: A Scottish case study Open
Rurality is known to be associated with a number of weaker educational outcomes, from lower attainment through to lower social mobility. This is why so much policy and practitioner focus has been directed at addressing the rurality gap in …
View article: Revisiting the dimensions of rural resilience: The CoVid-19 pandemic
Revisiting the dimensions of rural resilience: The CoVid-19 pandemic Open
Understanding the factors that improve the resilience of rural communities is an important area of academic research and focus for policymakers. In this context, the COVID-19 pandemic provides an important opportunity to study the dynamics…
View article: Early Years Multi‐grade Classes and Pupil Attainment*
Early Years Multi‐grade Classes and Pupil Attainment* Open
We study the effect of exposure to older, more experienced, classroom peers resulting from the widespread use of multi‐grade classes in Scottish primary schools. For identification, we exploit that a class‐planning algorithm quasi‐randomly…
View article: Incorporating short data into large mixed-frequency VARs for regional nowcasting
Incorporating short data into large mixed-frequency VARs for regional nowcasting Open
Interest in regional economic issues coupled with advances in administrative data is driving the creation of new regional economic data. Many of these data series could be useful for nowcasting regional economic activity, but they suffer f…
View article: Fiscal devolution and the accountability gap: budget scrutiny following tax devolution to Scotland
Fiscal devolution and the accountability gap: budget scrutiny following tax devolution to Scotland Open
Financing regional government involves trade-offs between own-source taxes and grants. Improved accountability has been an argument behind calls for greater tax devolution, but this argument relies upon effective scrutiny mechanisms existi…
View article: Reliability evaluation of repairable systems considering component heterogeneity using frailty model
Reliability evaluation of repairable systems considering component heterogeneity using frailty model Open
The failure processes of heterogeneous repairable systems with minimal repair assumption can be modelled by nonhomogeneous Poisson processes. One approach to describe an unobserved heterogeneity between systems is to multiply the intensity…
View article: Careful What you Wish for? Risk and Reward with Scottish Tax Devolution
Careful What you Wish for? Risk and Reward with Scottish Tax Devolution Open
September 2022 marks twenty‐five years since the referendum on the creation of the Scottish Parliament. From the early days of devolution, debates over Holyrood's tax powers have been a recurring theme. Recent reforms to the Parliament's t…
View article: What can analysis of 47 million job advertisements tell us about how opportunities for homeworking are evolving in the United Kingdom?
What can analysis of 47 million job advertisements tell us about how opportunities for homeworking are evolving in the United Kingdom? Open
Using an extensive database of job adverts, we investigate the extent to which homeworking is likely to continue. We track how advertisement language has evolved to indicate homeworking opportunities and how the characteristics of jobs off…
View article: Using stochastic hierarchical aggregation constraints to nowcast regional economic aggregates
Using stochastic hierarchical aggregation constraints to nowcast regional economic aggregates Open
Recent decades have seen advances in using econometric methods to produce more timely and higher frequency estimates of economic activity at the national level, enabling better tracking of the economy in real-time. These advances have not …
View article: Reconciled Estimates of Monthly GDP in the US*
Reconciled Estimates of Monthly GDP in the US* Open
In the US, income and expenditure-side estimates of GDP (GDPI and GDPE) measure “true” GDP with error and are available at a quarterly frequency. Methods exist for using these proxies to produce reconciled quarterly estimates of true GDP. …
View article: TRADE-OFFS: UNDERSTANDING FUTURE TRADE OPTIONS FOR SCOTLAND
TRADE-OFFS: UNDERSTANDING FUTURE TRADE OPTIONS FOR SCOTLAND Open
Trade issues lie at the heart of the two biggest constitutional challenges the UK has faced in decades: Brexit and Scottish independence. Brexit has demonstrated the economic importance of borders and led to renewed calls for Scottish inde…
View article: Reconciled Estimates of Monthly GDP in the United States
Reconciled Estimates of Monthly GDP in the United States Open
In the United States, income and expenditure-side estimates of gross domestic product (GDP) (GDPI and GDPE) measure “true” GDP with error and are available at a quarterly frequency. Methods exist for using these proxies to produce reconcil…
View article: The evolution of green jobs in Scotland: A hybrid approach
The evolution of green jobs in Scotland: A hybrid approach Open
In support of its ambitious target to reduce CO2 emissions the Scottish Government is aiming to have the equivalent of 100% of Scottish electricity consumption generated from renewable sources by 2020. This is, at least in part, motivated …