Explanipedia

The Mathematics of Serocatalytic Models With Applications to Public Health Data Open

Everlyn Kamau, Junjie Chen, Sumali Bajaj, Nicolás Torres, Richard Creswell , et al. · 2025

Serocatalytic models are powerful tools which can be used to infer historical infection patterns from age‐structured serological surveys. These surveys are especially useful when disease surveillance is limited and have an important role t…

Real-time small area estimation of food security in Zimbabwe: integrating mobile-phone and face-to-face surveys using joint multilevel regression and poststratification Open

Shinji Ishida, Adam Howes, Valerie D. Bradley, Elizaveta Semenova, Theo Rashid , et al. · 2025

Real-time, fine-grained monitoring of food security is essential for enabling timely and targeted interventions, thereby supporting the global goal of achieving zero hunger - a key objective of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. …

A renewal-equation approach to estimating <i> R <sub>t</sub> </i> and infectious disease case counts in the presence of reporting delays Open

Sumali Bajaj, Robin N. Thompson, Ben Lambert · 2025

During infectious disease outbreaks, delays in case reporting mean that the time series of cases is unreliable, particularly for those cases occurring most recently. This means that real-time estimates of the time-varying reproduction numb…

Artificial intelligence for modelling infectious disease epidemics Open

Moritz U. G. Kraemer, Joseph L.-H. Tsui, Serina Chang, Spyros Lytras, Mark P. Khurana , et al. · 2025

The Mathematics of Serocatalytic Models with applications to public health data Open

Everlyn Kamau, Junjie Chen, Sumali Bajaj, Nicolás Torres, Richard Creswell , et al. · 2025

Serocatalytic models are powerful tools which can be used to infer historical infection patterns from age-structured serological surveys. These surveys are especially useful when disease surveillance is limited and have an important role t…

Mass testing for discovery and control of COVID-19 outbreaks in adult social care: an observational study and cost-effectiveness analysis of 14 805 care homes in England Open

Siyu Chen, Richard Creswell, Rachel Hounsell, Liberty Cantrell, Sumali Bajaj , et al. · 2025

Introduction We retrospectively evaluated the impact of COVID-19 testing among residents and staff in social care homes in England. Methods We obtained 80 million reported PCR and lateral flow device (LFD) test results, from 14 805 care ho…

COVID-19 pandemic interventions reshaped the global dispersal of seasonal influenza viruses Open

Zhiyuan Chen, Joseph L.-H. Tsui, Bernardo Gutiérrez, Simón Busch Moreno, Louis du Plessis , et al. · 2024

The global dynamics of seasonal influenza viruses inform the design of surveillance, intervention, and vaccination strategies. The COVID-19 pandemic provided a singular opportunity to evaluate how influenza circulation worldwide was pertur…

COVID-19 testing and reporting behaviours in England across different sociodemographic groups: a population-based study using testing data and data from community prevalence surveillance surveys Open

Sumali Bajaj, Siyu Chen, Richard Creswell, Reshania Naidoo, Joseph L.-H. Tsui , et al. · 2024

Impacts of climate change-related human migration on infectious diseases Open

Joseph L.-H. Tsui, Rosario Evans Pena, Monika Moir, Rhys Inward, Eduan Wilkinson , et al. · 2024

Mass testing for discovery and control of COVID-19 outbreaks in adult social care: an observational study and cost-effectiveness analysis of 14,805 care homes in England Open

Siyu Chen, Richard Creswell, Rachel Hounsell, Liberty Cantrell, Sumali Bajaj , et al. · 2024

Introduction We retrospectively evaluated the impact of COVID-19 testing among residents and staff in social care homes in England. Methods We obtained 80 million reported polymerase chain reaction (PCR) and lateral flow device (LFD) test …

Assessing the impact of testing for COVID-19 using lateral flow devices in NHS acute trusts in England Open

Siyu Chen, Rachel Hounsell, Liberty Cantrell, Lok Hei Tsui, Reshania Naidoo , et al. · 2024

Background Twice-weekly lateral flow device (LFD) testing was introduced for routine asymptomatic testing of healthcare workers (HCWs) in the National Health Service (NHS) in England in November 2020, with the primary aim of reducing nosoc…

Synchrony of Bird Migration with Global Dispersal of Avian Influenza Reveals Exposed Bird Orders Open

Qiqi Yang, W Ben, Philippe Lemey, Lü Dong, Tong Mu , et al. · 2024

Highly pathogenic avian influenza virus (HPAIV) A H5, particularly clade 2.3.4.4, has caused worldwide outbreaks in domestic poultry, occasional spillover to humans, and increasing deaths of diverse species of wild birds since 2014. Wild b…

Routes of importation and spatial dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 variants during localised interventions in Chile Open

Bernardo Gutiérrez, Joseph L.-H. Tsui, Giulia Pullano, Mattia Mazzoli, Karthik Gangavarapu , et al. · 2024

South America suffered large SARS-CoV-2 epidemics between 2020 and 2022 caused by multiple variants of interest and concern, some causing substantial morbidity and mortality. However, their transmission dynamics are poorly characterised. T…

Understanding COVID-19 testing behaviour in England through a sociodemographic lens Open

Sumali Bajaj, Siyu Chen, Richard Creswell, Reshania Naidoo, Joseph L.-H. Tsui , et al. · 2023

Background Understanding underlying mechanisms of heterogeneity in test-seeking and reporting behaviour can help to protect the vulnerable and guide equity-driven interventions. Using COVID-19 testing data for England and data from communi…

Convergent trends and spatiotemporal patterns of Aedes-borne arboviruses in Mexico and Central America Open

Bernardo Gutiérrez, Darlan da Silva Cândido, Sumali Bajaj, Abril Paulina Rodriguez Maldonado, Fabiola Garcés Ayala , et al. · 2023

Background Aedes-borne arboviruses cause both seasonal epidemics and emerging outbreaks with a significant impact on global health. These viruses share mosquito vector species, often infecting the same host population within overlapping ge…

Genomic assessment of invasion dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron BA.1 Open

Joseph L.-H. Tsui, John T. McCrone, Ben Lambert, Sumali Bajaj, Rhys Inward , et al. · 2023

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variants of concern (VOCs) now arise in the context of heterogeneous human connectivity and population immunity. Through a large-scale phylodynamic analysis of 115,622 Omicron BA…

Synchrony of Bird Migration with Avian Influenza Global Spread; Implications for Vulnerable Bird Orders Open

Qiqi Yang, W Ben, Philippe Lemey, Lü Dong, Tong Mu , et al. · 2023

Highly pathogenic avian influenza virus (HPAIV) A H5 clade 2.3.4.4 has caused worldwide outbreaks in domestic poultry, occasional spillover to humans, and increasing deaths of diverse species of wild birds since 2014. Wild bird migration i…

Convergent trends and spatiotemporal patterns of arboviruses in Mexico and Central America Open

Bernardo Gutiérrez, Darlan da Silva Cândido, Sumali Bajaj, Abril Paulina Rodriguez Maldonado, Fabiola Garcés-Ayala , et al. · 2023

Background Arboviruses cause both seasonal epidemics (e.g. dengue viruses, DENV) and emerging outbreaks (e.g. chikungunya and Zika viruses, CHIKV and ZIKV) with a significant impact on global health. These viruses share mosquito vector spe…

Genomic assessment of invasion dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron BA.1 Open

Joseph L.-H. Tsui, Ben Lambert, Sumali Bajaj, John T. McCrone, Rhys Inward , et al. · 2023

Summary SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern (VOCs) arise against the backdrop of increasingly heterogeneous human connectivity and population immunity. Through a large-scale phylodynamic analysis of 115,622 Omicron genomes, we identified >6,000…

Context-specific emergence and growth of the SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant Open

John T. McCrone, Verity Hill, Sumali Bajaj, Rosario Evans Pena, Ben Lambert , et al. · 2022

Learning transmission dynamics modelling of COVID-19 using comomodels Open

Solveig A. van der Vegt, Liangti Dai, Ioana Bouros, Hui Jia Farm, Richard Creswell , et al. · 2022

Optimizing social and economic activity while containing SARS-CoV-2 transmission using DAEDALUS Open

David Haw, Giovanni Forchini, Patrick Doohan, Paula Christen, Matteo Pianella , et al. · 2022

To study the trade-off between economic, social and health outcomes in the management of a pandemic, DAEDALUS integrates a dynamic epidemiological model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission with a multi-sector economic model, reflecting sectoral het…

Context-specific emergence and growth of the SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant Open

John T. McCrone, Verity Hill, Sumali Bajaj, Rosario Evans Pena, Ben Lambert , et al. · 2021

Summary The Delta variant of concern of SARS-CoV-2 has spread globally causing large outbreaks and resurgences of COVID-19 cases 1–3 . The emergence of Delta in the UK occurred on the background of a heterogeneous landscape of immunity and…

Context-specific emergence and growth of the SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant Open

Moritz U. G. Kraemer, John T. McCrone, Verity Hill, Sumali Bajaj, Rosario Evans-Pena , et al. · 2021

Progress and challenges in virus genomic epidemiology Open

Verity Hill, Christopher Ruis, Sumali Bajaj, Oliver G. Pybus, Moritz U. G. Kraemer · 2021

Genomic epidemiology, which links pathogen genomes with associated metadata to understand disease transmission, has become a key component of outbreak response. Decreasing costs of genome sequencing and increasing computational power provi…

Naomi: a new modelling tool for estimating HIV epidemic indicators at the district level in sub‐Saharan Africa Open

Jeffrey W. Eaton, Laura Dwyer‐Lindgren, Steve Gutreuter, Megan O’Driscoll, Oliver Stevens , et al. · 2021

Introduction HIV planning requires granular estimates for the number of people living with HIV (PLHIV), antiretroviral treatment (ART) coverage and unmet need, and new HIV infections by district, or equivalent subnational administrative le…

Spatiotemporal invasion dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 lineage B.1.1.7 emergence Open

Moritz U. G. Kraemer, Verity Hill, Christopher Ruis, Simon Dellicour, Sumali Bajaj , et al. · 2021

Fueling outbreaks The B.1.1.7 lineage of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has caused fast-spreading outbreaks globally. Intrinsically, this variant has greater transmissibility than its predecessors, but this ca…

Changes in NfL Plasma Levels and Association with Cognitive and Imaging Markers of Alzheimer’s Disease Open

Sumali Bajaj, Christoforos Hadjichrysanthou, Kevin McRae‐McKee, Frank de Wolf, Roy M. Anderson · 2021

INTRODUCTION: We assessed the association of plasma neurofilament light chain (pNfL) with cognitive decline and neuroimaging markers, and investigated its potential relationship with the clinical progression to dementia due to Alzheimer’s …

The costs of keeping schools open during the COVID-19 pandemic Open

David Haw, Giovanni Forchini, Paula Christen, Sumali Bajaj, Alexandra B. Hogan , et al. · 2021

There is a trade-off between restrictions on the education sector and other economic sectors in the control of SARS-CoV-2 transmission. Here we integrate a dynamic model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission with a 63-sector economic model reflecting…

Deworming women of reproductive age during adolescence and pregnancy: what is the impact on morbidity from soil-transmitted helminths infection? Open

Carolin Vegvari, Federica Giardina, Sumali Bajaj, Veronica Malizia, Robert J. Hardwick , et al. · 2021

Background Soil-transmitted helminths (STHs) are a major cause of poor health in low- and middle-income countries. In particular, hookworm is known to cause anaemia in children and women of reproductive age (WRA). One goal of the World Hea…

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