Neutrophils, the most abundant immune cells in the human circulation, play a central role in the innate immune system. While neutrophil heterogeneity is a topic of increasing research interest, few efforts have been made to model the dynamics of neutrophil population subsets. We develop a mathematical model to describe the dynamics that characterizes the states and transitions involved in the maturation of human neutrophils. We use single-cell gene expression data to identify five clusters of healthy human neutrop…

During the COVID-19 pandemic, a key challenge was designing control strategies that balance the benefits and costs of public health and social measures while preventing healthcare systems becoming overwhelmed. This was often implemented by epidemiological modellers as a binding (hard) constraint based on the maximum number of hospital beds that could be occupied at any given time. However, experience from the pandemic demonstrated that healthcare capacity depends not only on the number of beds available, but also …

We present a mathematical model of the dynamics of Bacillus anthracis bacteria within the lymph nodes and blood of a host, following inhalation of an initial dose of spores. We also incorporate the dynamics of protective antigen, which is the binding component of the anthrax toxin produced by the bacteria. The model offers a mechanistic description of the early infection dynamics of inhalational anthrax, while its stochastic nature allows us to study the probabilities of different outcomes (for example, how likely…

Abstract Neutrophils, the most abundant immune cells in the human circulation, play a central role in the innate immune system. While neutrophil heterogeneity is a topic of increasing research interest, few efforts have been made to model the dynamics of neutrophil population subsets. We develop a mathematical model to describe the dynamics that characterizes the states and transitions involved in the maturation of human neutrophils. We use single-cell gene expression data to identify five clusters of healthy huma…

Avian influenza A(H5N1) poses a public health risk due to its pandemic potential should the virus mutate to become human-to-human transmissible. To date, reported influenza A(H5N1) human cases have typically occurred in the lower respiratory tract with a high case fatality rate. There is prior evidence of some influenza A(H5N1) strains being a small number of amino acid mutations away from achieving droplet transmissibility, possibly allowing them to be spread between humans. We present a mechanistic within-host i…