Thomas McAndrew
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View article: Designing a Digital Platform for Seasonal Influenza: Concept Mapping with Infectious Disease Experts
Designing a Digital Platform for Seasonal Influenza: Concept Mapping with Infectious Disease Experts Open
Purpose The goal of this research was to identify features and functions of a digital platform that would help experts make policy and programmatic decisions related to seasonal influenza. We aimed to: 1) explore desired digital platform f…
View article: Enhancing local public health decision-making: Incorporating end-user perspectives into influenza forecasting models
Enhancing local public health decision-making: Incorporating end-user perspectives into influenza forecasting models Open
Background Influenza has a significant impact on morbidity and mortality, with disproportionate impact on non-White populations. Forecasts of flu timing/intensity have the potential to reduce morbidity, mortality, and health disparities by…
View article: Beyond Traditional Surveillance: Harnessing Expert Knowledge for Public Health Forecasting
Beyond Traditional Surveillance: Harnessing Expert Knowledge for Public Health Forecasting Open
Downsizing the US public health workforce throughout 2025 amplifies potential risks during public health crises. Expert judgment from public health officials represents a vital information source, distinct from traditional surveillance inf…
View article: Can a Conference be Epidemiologically Conscious? A Pilot Study of Implementing COVID-19 Mitigation Measures at an In-Person Conference
Can a Conference be Epidemiologically Conscious? A Pilot Study of Implementing COVID-19 Mitigation Measures at an In-Person Conference Open
Structed Abstract Introduction : Public health guidance about respiratory agents often focuses on the county level, overlooking local events that may increase transmission—such as conferences. Objectives: To understand conference-level mit…
View article: Impact of Dobbs v. Jackson on Abortion Access in Colorado: An Analysis of Incidence and Demographic Shifts Post-Roe
Impact of Dobbs v. Jackson on Abortion Access in Colorado: An Analysis of Incidence and Demographic Shifts Post-Roe Open
Objectives To estimate the impact in the number of incident abortions due to the Dobbs v Jackson decision. Methods We fit an interrupted time series model to annual incident abortions from 2004 to 2023 in the state of Colorado. In addition…
View article: Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Avian Influenza: Understanding Avian Influenza Transmission via Mallard Migration Data
Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Avian Influenza: Understanding Avian Influenza Transmission via Mallard Migration Data Open
Influenza, categorized as one of the emergent infectious diseases, presents a substantial public health concern due to its capacity to trigger extensive epidemics and global pandemics. Every recent pandemic of human influenza has been attr…
View article: Chimeric Forecasting: Blending Human Judgment and Computational Methods for Improved, Real-time Forecasts of Influenza Hospitalizations
Chimeric Forecasting: Blending Human Judgment and Computational Methods for Improved, Real-time Forecasts of Influenza Hospitalizations Open
Infectious disease forecasts can reduce mortality and morbidity by supporting evidence-based public health decision making. Most epidemic models train on surveillance and structured data (e.g. weather, mobility, media), missing contextual …
View article: Assessing Human Judgment Forecasts in the Rapid Spread of the Mpox Outbreak: Insights and Challenges for Pandemic Preparedness
Assessing Human Judgment Forecasts in the Rapid Spread of the Mpox Outbreak: Insights and Challenges for Pandemic Preparedness Open
In May 2022, mpox (formerly monkeypox) spread to non-endemic countries rapidly. Human judgment is a forecasting approach that has been sparsely evaluated during the beginning of an outbreak. We collected -- between May 19, 2022 and July 31…
View article: The Watermelon Meow Meow Outbreak: Enhancing Public Health Education Through Real-World Experience, Statistical Programming, and Infectious Disease Modeling
The Watermelon Meow Meow Outbreak: Enhancing Public Health Education Through Real-World Experience, Statistical Programming, and Infectious Disease Modeling Open
There is a need for public health undergraduates to acquire skills in data collection, statistical programming, and infectious diseases modeling. Public health officials and accreditation bodies underline the importance of a cumulative, “r…
View article: Chimeric Forecasting: An experiment to leverage human judgment to improve forecasts of infectious disease using simulated surveillance data
Chimeric Forecasting: An experiment to leverage human judgment to improve forecasts of infectious disease using simulated surveillance data Open
Forecasts of infectious agents provide public health officials advanced warning about the intensity and timing of the spread of disease. Past work has found that accuracy and calibration of forecasts is weakest when attempting to predict a…
View article: A Cluster-Aggregate-Pool (CAP) Ensemble Algorithm for Improved Forecast Performance of influenza-like illness
A Cluster-Aggregate-Pool (CAP) Ensemble Algorithm for Improved Forecast Performance of influenza-like illness Open
Seasonal influenza causes on average 425,000 hospitalizations and 32,000 deaths per year in the United States. Forecasts of influenza-like illness (ILI) -- a surrogate for the proportion of patients infected with influenza -- support publi…
View article: Evaluation of FluSight influenza forecasting in the 2021-22 and 2022-23 seasons with a new target laboratory-confirmed influenza hospitalizations
Evaluation of FluSight influenza forecasting in the 2021-22 and 2022-23 seasons with a new target laboratory-confirmed influenza hospitalizations Open
Accurate forecasts can enable more effective public health responses during seasonal influenza epidemics. Forecasting teams were asked to provide national and jurisdiction-specific probabilistic predictions of weekly confirmed influenza ho…
View article: Comparison of combination methods to create calibrated ensemble forecasts for seasonal influenza in the U.S.
Comparison of combination methods to create calibrated ensemble forecasts for seasonal influenza in the U.S. Open
The characteristics of influenza seasons vary substantially from year to year, posing challenges for public health preparation and response. Influenza forecasting is used to inform seasonal outbreak response, which can in turn potentially …
View article: Park visitation and walkshed demographics in the United States
Park visitation and walkshed demographics in the United States Open
A large and growing body of research demonstrates the value of local parks to mental and physical well-being. Recently, researchers have begun using passive digital data sources to investigate equity in usage; exactly who is benefiting fro…
View article: Crowdsourced Perceptions of Human Behavior to Improve Computational Forecasts of US National Incident Cases of COVID-19: Survey Study
Crowdsourced Perceptions of Human Behavior to Improve Computational Forecasts of US National Incident Cases of COVID-19: Survey Study Open
Background Past research has shown that various signals associated with human behavior (eg, social media engagement) can benefit computational forecasts of COVID-19. One behavior that has been shown to reduce the spread of infectious agent…
View article: Body mass index from the RE-LY trial: further evidence of the obesity paradox
Body mass index from the RE-LY trial: further evidence of the obesity paradox Open
Background The obesity paradox has been reported in 3 post-hoc analyses evaluating the direct oral anticoagulants (DOAC) against warfarin (W): apixaban (ARISTOTLE), rivaroxaban (ROCKET), and edoxaban (ENGAGE-AF). Purpose To evaluate the ob…
View article: An expert judgment model to predict early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States
An expert judgment model to predict early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States Open
From February to May 2020, experts in the modeling of infectious disease provided quantitative predictions and estimates of trends in the emerging COVID-19 pandemic in a series of 13 surveys. Data on existing transmission patterns were spa…
View article: Aggregating Human Judgment Probabilistic Predictions of Coronavirus Disease 2019 Transmission, Burden, and Preventive Measures
Aggregating Human Judgment Probabilistic Predictions of Coronavirus Disease 2019 Transmission, Burden, and Preventive Measures Open
Aggregated human judgment forecasts for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) targets of public health importance are accurate, often outperforming computational models. Our work shows that aggregated human judgment forecasts for infectious …
View article: Human judgment forecasts of human monkeypox transmission and burden in non-endemic countries
Human judgment forecasts of human monkeypox transmission and burden in non-endemic countries Open
Background: An increase in reported human infections by the monkeypox virus (MPXV) has been observed in multiple non-endemic countries. Forecasts of transmission and disease burden associated with MPXV can support public health decision ma…
View article: Incorporating crowdsourced perceptions of human behavior into computational forecasts of US national incident cases of COVID-19
Incorporating crowdsourced perceptions of human behavior into computational forecasts of US national incident cases of COVID-19 Open
Computational forecasts of COVID-19 targets may benefit from temporal signals associated with human behavior. Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPI) have been shown to reduce the spread of an infectious agent, but accurate information abou…
View article: Aggregating human judgment probabilistic predictions of COVID-19 transmission, burden, and preventative measures
Aggregating human judgment probabilistic predictions of COVID-19 transmission, burden, and preventative measures Open
Aggregated human judgment forecasts for COVID-19 targets of public health importance are accurate, often outperforming computational models. Our work shows aggregated human judgment forecasts for infectious agents are timely, accurate, and…
View article: Comparison of Combination Methods to Create Calibrated Ensemble Forecasts for Seasonal Influenza in the U.S
Comparison of Combination Methods to Create Calibrated Ensemble Forecasts for Seasonal Influenza in the U.S Open
The characteristics of influenza seasons varies substantially from year to year, posing challenges for public health preparation and response. Influenza forecasting is used to inform seasonal outbreak response, which can in turn potentiall…
View article: Chimeric forecasting: combining probabilistic predictions from computational models and human judgment
Chimeric forecasting: combining probabilistic predictions from computational models and human judgment Open
Forecasts of the trajectory of an infectious agent can help guide public health decision making. A traditional approach to forecasting fits a computational model to structured data and generates a predictive distribution. However, human ju…