Todd Kuethe
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View article: The Loss Function of USDA Forecasters: Evidence from WASDE Animal Product Price Forecasts
The Loss Function of USDA Forecasters: Evidence from WASDE Animal Product Price Forecasts Open
The loss function is a mathematical representation of the costs experienced by a forecaster when observed outcomes differ from what was predicted. Prior studies suggest that USDA forecasts are not optimal based on an assumed mean-zero quad…
View article: A Time Series Analysis of Herd Investor Behavior Using Online and Social Media Data
A Time Series Analysis of Herd Investor Behavior Using Online and Social Media Data Open
We examine the relationship between market performance of leading cryptocurrencies (Bitcoin and Ethereum), meme-stocks (AMC, GameStop), and subjects of corporate boycotts (Bud Light) using weekly market price and volume data along with soc…
View article: Experimental evidence of bargaining power in agricultural land markets
Experimental evidence of bargaining power in agricultural land markets Open
There is public concern about the degree to which rising farmland rental rates are driven by the perceived market influence of non-agricultural actors. We conduct a structural estimation to analyse the potential bargaining power of differe…
View article: Change in farmer expectations from information surprises in the corn market
Change in farmer expectations from information surprises in the corn market Open
Farmers make production decisions despite future output price uncertainty. As a result, farmers' expectation of future output price is an important determinant of investment and the supply of commodities. However, our understanding of the …
View article: An evaluation of Congressional Budget Office's baseline projections of <scp>USDA</scp> mandatory farm and nutrition programs
An evaluation of Congressional Budget Office's baseline projections of <span>USDA</span> mandatory farm and nutrition programs Open
The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projections of USDA's mandatory farm and nutrition program outlays are important in shaping US agricultural policy. Using CBO projections and observed outcomes from 1985 through 2020, we examine the de…
View article: Impact of macroeconomic assumptions on United States Department of Agriculture's baseline farm income projections
Impact of macroeconomic assumptions on United States Department of Agriculture's baseline farm income projections Open
The United States Department of Agriculture's (USDA) agricultural baseline projections are important in shaping US agricultural policy. We investigate the degree to which previous findings of bias and inefficiency of USDA baseline projecti…
View article: The accuracy and informativeness of agricultural baselines
The accuracy and informativeness of agricultural baselines Open
Agricultural baselines facilitate policy and investment decisions by governments and market participants by providing long‐term projections about the farm sector. Despite their importance in shaping agricultural policy, the agricultural ba…
View article: The Supply and Demand of Agricultural Loans
The Supply and Demand of Agricultural Loans Open
Credit plays a critical role in the agricultural sector, but many studies suggest that farmers are credit constrained.We examine the degree to which changes in non-realestate agricultural loans at commercial banks are driven by changes in …
View article: Loss Aversion in Farmland Price Expectations
Loss Aversion in Farmland Price Expectations Open
Todd H. Kuethe, Associate Professor and Schrader Chair in Farmland Economics Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, West Lafayette, Indiana; tkuethe{at}purdue.edu
View article: Perceived Competition in Agricultural Lending: Stylized Facts and an Agenda for Future Research
Perceived Competition in Agricultural Lending: Stylized Facts and an Agenda for Future Research Open
Purpose: This study examines agricultural lending by commercial banks and the competition they face from the Farm Credit System and non-traditional lenders, including merchants, dealers, and other input suppliers. Design/methodology/approa…
View article: The Rationality of <scp>USDA</scp> Forecasts under Multivariate Asymmetric Loss
The Rationality of <span>USDA</span> Forecasts under Multivariate Asymmetric Loss Open
A large number of previous studies suggest that many USDA forecasts are biased and/or inefficient. These findings, however, may be the result of the assumed loss function of USDA forecasters. We test the rationality of the USDA net cash in…
View article: Joint Evaluation of the System of<scp>USDA</scp>'s Farm Income Forecasts
Joint Evaluation of the System of<span>USDA</span>'s Farm Income Forecasts Open
This study evaluates a system of USDA's Net Cash Income forecasts, released as part of the farm sector's income statement, which includes crop receipts, livestock receipts, government payments, farm‐related income, and expenses from 1986 t…
View article: A Tale of Two Borders: Use‐Value Assessment, Land Development, and Irrigation Investment
A Tale of Two Borders: Use‐Value Assessment, Land Development, and Irrigation Investment Open
This is a pre-copyedited, author-produced PDF of an article accepted for publication in American Journal of Agricultural Economics following peer review. The version of record [A Tale of Two Borders: Use‐Value Assessment, Land Development,…
View article: Agricultural Bankers’ Expectations of Farmland Price Changes and Asset Price Bubbles
Agricultural Bankers’ Expectations of Farmland Price Changes and Asset Price Bubbles Open
When the market price of an asset exceeds its fundamental value, rational expectations suggest that agents should expect market prices to fall. This equilibrating relationship is tested using an unbalanced panel of responses from the Feder…