Tom Waters
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View article: Why Has in‐Work Poverty Risen in Britain?
Why Has in‐Work Poverty Risen in Britain? Open
Is work a reliable route out of poverty, and what does that depend upon? In Britain, the headline relative poverty rate for those in working households steadily rose from 13.4% in 1994–95 to 18.4% in 2019–20. We study the drivers of this i…
View article: The role of changing health in rising health-related benefit claims
The role of changing health in rising health-related benefit claims Open
Since the COVID-19 pandemic, there has been a significant rise in the number of people getting health-related benefits. In England and Wales, 4 million 16- to 64-year-olds (1 in 10) now claim either disability or incapacity benefits, up fr…
View article: Hours of work and the long‐run effects of in‐work transfers
Hours of work and the long‐run effects of in‐work transfers Open
Policymakers have increasingly turned to ‘in‐work transfers’ to boost incomes among poorer workers and strengthen work incentives. One attraction of these is that labour supply elasticities are typically greatest at the extensive margin. B…
View article: Living standards, poverty and inequality in the UK: 2024
Living standards, poverty and inequality in the UK: 2024 Open
What has happened to living standards since the pandemic?1. Between 2021-22 and 2022-23, median household income before housing costs (BHC) fell by 0.5%.As a result, median income in 2022-23 was 1.6% lower than in 2019-20.This is equivalen…
View article: Living standards, poverty and inequality in the UK: 2024 (Presentations)
Living standards, poverty and inequality in the UK: 2024 (Presentations) Open
Manifestos leave voters guessing over policy on tax and spending, and on future size and shape of state Debt is at its highest level in more than 60 years.Taxes are at near enough the highest ever level seen in the UK.They have risen more …
View article: Universal credit: incomes, incentives and the remaining roll-out
Universal credit: incomes, incentives and the remaining roll-out Open
The introduction of universal credit (UC) has been the most significant reform to the workingage benefits system since the reforms following the post-war Beveridge Report. When fully rolled out, around 8 million families - 29% of all worki…
View article: The distributional impact of tax and benefit reforms since 2010
The distributional impact of tax and benefit reforms since 2010 Open
The past 14 years have witnessed an enormous amount of reform to the tax and benefit system. While it is tempting for politicians to draw attention to one set of reforms or another, what matters for household incomes is the whole system. I…
View article: Recent trends in and the outlook for health-related benefits
Recent trends in and the outlook for health-related benefits Open
Individuals in the UK with health conditions may be entitled to two types of benefits - incapacity benefits (for those whose condition prevents them from working) and disability benefits (to help with extra living costs arising from the di…
View article: The Employment and Distributional Impacts of Nationwide Minimum Wage Changes
The Employment and Distributional Impacts of Nationwide Minimum Wage Changes Open
We assess the impact of nationwide minimum wages on employment throughout the whole wage distribution by exploiting geographical variation in the level of wages. We find a substantial increase in wages at the bottom of the wage distributio…
View article: Living standards since the last election
Living standards since the last election Open
New income statistics suggest this parliament is on course to be the worst for living standards on record.
View article: Scottish Budget: The medium-term outlook and choices
Scottish Budget: The medium-term outlook and choices Open
This chapter of our second annual Budget Report looks beyond 2024-25 to the medium-term outlook for the Scottish Government's funding, and the implications of the funding picture for the choices and trade-offs faced when allocating funding…
View article: Tax and spending in 2024–25
Tax and spending in 2024–25 Open
This chapter of our second annual Budget Report looks at Scottish tax policy and revenue, the overall amount of funding available for Scottish public services, and planned spending on different individual services in the coming financial y…
View article: Inequalities in disability
Inequalities in disability Open
Prevalence of disability and receipt of disability benefits have steadily increased among the UK’s working-age population in recent years. We examine inequalities in disability and its prevalence between educational groups, year of birth c…
View article: Benefits and tax credits
Benefits and tax credits Open
The UK government spends over £100 billion each year on working-age benefits, predominantly for those with low incomes or disabilities. Broadly, these payments protect families from hardship, reduce inequality, and support disabled people.…
View article: The effects of reforms to the Work Capability Assessment for incapacity benefits
The effects of reforms to the Work Capability Assessment for incapacity benefits Open
We investigate the potential impacts of the government's proposed reforms to the Work Capability Assessment.
View article: #1 on the U.S. Most Wanted List: Why the Push is on to Ban the World’s Most Successful Startup from Academic, Government and Military Devices in the United States
#1 on the U.S. Most Wanted List: Why the Push is on to Ban the World’s Most Successful Startup from Academic, Government and Military Devices in the United States Open
TikTok is a social media application that has amassed over 100 million users in the United States. Yet the Biden White House, like the Trump Administration before it, seeks to ban TikTok, or at least force it’s divestment from the parent c…
View article: Employment, earnings and incomes in Scotland
Employment, earnings and incomes in Scotland Open
How have employment, earnings and incomes performed in Scotland compared with the rest of the UK? What drives geographic inequalities within Scotland?
View article: Living standards, poverty and inequality in the UK: 2023
Living standards, poverty and inequality in the UK: 2023 Open
We investigate how living standards have changed for different groups in the UK, with a particular focus on the cost of living payments and housing.
View article: Housing quality and affordability for lower-income households
Housing quality and affordability for lower-income households Open
1 Housing quality and affordability for lower-income households Key findings1. Facing higher housing costs, renters are considerably more likely than owneroccupiers to have low living standards on a variety of measures.Social and private r…
View article: A deepening freeze: more adults than ever are paying higher-rate tax
A deepening freeze: more adults than ever are paying higher-rate tax Open
In April, the UK entered the second year of a six-year freeze in the cash value of income tax thresholds - a policy set to become the single biggest tax-raising measure since the 1970s. This is the latest in a long line of measures (by suc…
View article: Firm concentration & job design: the case of schedule flexible work arrangements
Firm concentration & job design: the case of schedule flexible work arrangements Open
We build a model of job design under monopsony that yields predictions over the relationship between: (i) the amenity value of non-wage job features; (ii) whether they are costly or profitable to firms; (iii) monopsony power. We analyse th…
View article: The policy menu for school lunches: options and trade-offs in expanding free school meals in England
The policy menu for school lunches: options and trade-offs in expanding free school meals in England Open
Of the 8.4 million children in English state schools, 3.4 million are eligible to get a free meal at school each day. Just under 2 million of these children are eligible through the means-tested system, which includes children whose famili…
View article: The cost of living crisis: a pre-Budget briefing
The cost of living crisis: a pre-Budget briefing Open
The recent surge in inflation, driven by spectacular increases in energy prices, has driven sharp falls in household living standards, huge government intervention to try to mitigate it, and serious policy headaches. As such it continues t…
View article: Scottish Budget 2023–24: further analysis
Scottish Budget 2023–24: further analysis Open
The aim of this report, the IFS's first in-depth analysis of the Scottish Government Budget, is to look at some of the key implications for the coming year, and for the longer term. We do not attempt to cover all of the different services …
View article: Analysis of Scottish tax and benefit reforms
Analysis of Scottish tax and benefit reforms Open
We analyse the impact of changes to devolved income tax rates and bands and benefits, and show the total impact of the changes.
View article: Benefits and tax credits
Benefits and tax credits Open
This chapter looks at what we know about why Scotland's tax base has grown more slowly so far since devolution.
View article: Do work search requirements work? Evidence from a UK reform targeting single parents
Do work search requirements work? Evidence from a UK reform targeting single parents Open
Proponents of work search requirements for out-of-work welfare claimants argue they are effective in inducing individuals to work and delivering fiscal savings. In this paper, we provide a much more comprehensive assessment than has been a…
View article: Intensive margin labour supply and the dynamic effects of in-work transfers
Intensive margin labour supply and the dynamic effects of in-work transfers Open
Policy-makers have increasingly turned to 'in-work transfers' to boost incomes among poorer workers and strengthen work incentives. One attraction of these is that labour supply elasticities are typically greatest at the extensive margin. …
View article: The number of new disability benefit claimants has doubled in a year
The number of new disability benefit claimants has doubled in a year Open
Personal Independence Payment (PIP) is a disability benefit that aims to support individuals facing higher living costs due to difficulties in mobility or carrying out everyday tasks. In summer 2021, each month 15,000 or so working-age peo…