Tomáš Sobotka
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View article: O-166 Changing reproductive behaviours and infertility
O-166 Changing reproductive behaviours and infertility Open
Reproductive behaviour has been changing fast around the world, with fertility rates falling to record-low levels, first births being shifted to ever later ages and more women and men remaining permanently childless. This talk reviews the …
View article: Fertility decline in the later phase of the COVID-19 pandemic: The role of policy interventions, vaccination programmes, and economic uncertainty
Fertility decline in the later phase of the COVID-19 pandemic: The role of policy interventions, vaccination programmes, and economic uncertainty Open
BACKGROUND During the COVID-19 pandemic, birth rates in most higher-income countries first briefly declined and then shortly recovered, showing no common trends afterwards until early 2022, when they unexpectedly dropped. STUDY FOCUS We an…
View article: Wittgenstein Center (WIC) Population and Human Capital Projections - 2023
Wittgenstein Center (WIC) Population and Human Capital Projections - 2023 Open
THIS IS VERSION WIC3.004 (Beta) (internal version V14, the last three versions were called V13, V12 and V11). This is a release version corresponding to the SSP-Database 3.0 (will be updated) release and WIC-Data Explorer 2023 Short Abstra…
View article: Birth rate decline in the later phase of the COVID-19 pandemic: the role of policy interventions, vaccination programmes, and economic uncertainty
Birth rate decline in the later phase of the COVID-19 pandemic: the role of policy interventions, vaccination programmes, and economic uncertainty Open
STUDY QUESTION What are the factors influencing the decline in the birth rates observed in higher-income countries in the later phase of the COVID-19 pandemic? SUMMARY ANSWER Our results suggest that economic uncertainty, non-pharmaceutica…
View article: A pronatalist turn in population policies in Iran and its likely adverse impacts on reproductive rights, health and inequality: a critical narrative review
A pronatalist turn in population policies in Iran and its likely adverse impacts on reproductive rights, health and inequality: a critical narrative review Open
Iran has witnessed three major reversals of population policies since their inception in the 1960s. In response to a rapid decline in fertility to very low levels, the latest policy shift has led to the development of legislation that aims…
View article: Wittgenstein Center (WIC) Population and Human Capital Projections - 2023
Wittgenstein Center (WIC) Population and Human Capital Projections - 2023 Open
THIS IS VERSION WIC3.002 (Beta) (internal version V12, the last one was called v11) FOR INTERNAL AND EXTERNAL VALIDATION OF THE NEW UPDATE. THE OFFICIAL RELEASE DATE WILL BE ANNOUNCED LATER, DEPENDING ON COMMENTS/SUGGESTIONS FROM OUR INTER…
View article: DO NOT USE THIS VERSION - UPLOAD ERROR
DO NOT USE THIS VERSION - UPLOAD ERROR Open
- NOT TO BE CITED - DO NOT USE THIS VERSION
View article: Pandemic Roller‐Coaster? Birth Trends in Higher‐Income Countries During the COVID‐19 Pandemic
Pandemic Roller‐Coaster? Birth Trends in Higher‐Income Countries During the COVID‐19 Pandemic Open
We use monthly birth data collected by the Human Fertility Database to analyze the impact of the COVID‐19 pandemic on birth trends until September 2022 in 38 higher‐income countries. We also present estimates of the monthly total fertility…
View article: Wittgenstein Center (WIC) Population and Human Capital Projections - 2023
Wittgenstein Center (WIC) Population and Human Capital Projections - 2023 Open
- NOT TO BE CITED - THIS IS FOR INTERNAL AND EXTERNAL VALIDATION OF THE NEW UPDATE. THE OFFICIAL RELEASE DATE WILL BE ANNOUNCED LATER, DEPENDING ON COMMENTS/SUGGESTIONS FROM OUR INTERNAL AND EXTERNAL COLLABORATORS AND USERS. Short Abstract…
View article: Changing the perspective on low birth rates: why simplistic solutions won’t work
Changing the perspective on low birth rates: why simplistic solutions won’t work Open
Stuart Gietel-Basten, Anna Rotkirch, and Tomáš Sobotka argue that policies responding to population decline and ageing should enable reproductive choice and maximise the potential of all citizens
View article: From bust to boom? Birth and fertility responses to the COVID-19 pandemic
From bust to boom? Birth and fertility responses to the COVID-19 pandemic Open
Past economic, health and policy shocks were associated with a downturn in fertility. We use monthly birth data collected by the Human Fertility Database (Short-Term Fertility Fluctuations data series) to analyze the impact of the COVID-19…
View article: Drastic changes in fertility level and timing in response to marriage and fertility policies: evidence from Shandong province, China
Drastic changes in fertility level and timing in response to marriage and fertility policies: evidence from Shandong province, China Open
China’s “one-child policy” that had been in force between 1980 and 2016 evolved over time and differed widely between regions. Local policies in many regions also targeted the timing and spacing of childbearing by setting the minimum age a…
View article: Demography of family change in Europe
Demography of family change in Europe Open
This chapter examines family trends in Europe during the last half a century, and specifically among women born in the 1940s-1970s. We outline period and cohort changes in union formation, marriage, living arrangements, fertility, and divo…
View article: Baby bust in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic? First results from the new STFF data series
Baby bust in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic? First results from the new STFF data series Open
Past evidence on fertility responses to external shocks, including economic recessions and the outbreaks of infectious diseases, show that people often put their childbearing plans on hold in uncertain times. We study the most recent data …
View article: Monthly Estimates of the Quantum of Fertility: Towards a Fertility Monitoring System in Austria
Monthly Estimates of the Quantum of Fertility: Towards a Fertility Monitoring System in Austria Open
Short-term variations in fertility and seasonal patterns of childbearing have been of interestto demographers for a long time. Presenting our detailed study of period fertility in Austriasince 1984, we discuss the problems and advantages o…
View article: Cohort Fertility Decline in Low Fertility Countries: Decomposition Using Parity Progression Ratios
Cohort Fertility Decline in Low Fertility Countries: Decomposition Using Parity Progression Ratios Open
This study provides a systematic analysis of parity components of the cohort fertility decline in 32 low-fertility countries in Europe, North America, Australia and East Asia. We decompose the change in cohort fertility in each country amo…
View article: Post-Transitional Fertility: Childbearing Postponement and the Shift to Low and Unstable Fertility Levels
Post-Transitional Fertility: Childbearing Postponement and the Shift to Low and Unstable Fertility Levels Open
This study discusses fertility trends and variation in countries that have completed the transition from high to around-replacement fertility in the 1950s-1980s—especially in Europe, East Asia and North America—and summarises the key findi…
View article: Low Fertility in Austria and the Czech Republic: Gradual Policy Adjustments
Low Fertility in Austria and the Czech Republic: Gradual Policy Adjustments Open
This article provides a comparative analysis of fertility and family transformations and policy responses in Austria and the Czech Republic, two neighbouring countries in Central Europe that were until 1989 separated by the "Iron Curtain" …
View article: Introduction: the relevance of studying fertility across time and space
Introduction: the relevance of studying fertility across time and space Open
Current “ultra-low” fertility rates in many countries in Europe and East Asia give rise to concerns about the potential demographic implosion and its consequences. At the same time, some countries in Sub-Saharan Africa continue to have ver…
View article: Selected Wittgenstein Centre databases on fertility across time and space
Selected Wittgenstein Centre databases on fertility across time and space Open
This contribution provides a brief structured overview of selected open-access databases and data websites developed by the Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital, in some cases in cooperation with partner institutions…
View article: Uncertain population futures: Critical reflections on the IHME Scenarios of future fertility, mortality, migration and population trends from 2017 to 2100
Uncertain population futures: Critical reflections on the IHME Scenarios of future fertility, mortality, migration and population trends from 2017 to 2100 Open
In July 2020 The Lancet published global scenarios of fertility, mortality, migration and population trends from 2017 to 2100 produced by the research team from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) (Vollset et al. 2020). …
View article: Vienna Yearbook of Population Research 2020
Vienna Yearbook of Population Research 2020 Open
Guest editors: Tomáš Sobotka, Aiva Jasilioniene, Kryštof Zeman, Diego Ramiro FariñasThe 2020 volume brings together many perspectives on the past, present and future of fertility. It covers both countries with very high fertility (research…
View article: Age, gender and COVID-19 infections
Age, gender and COVID-19 infections Open
Data for ten European countries which provide detailed distribution of COVID-19 cases by sex and age show that among people of working age, women diagnosed with COVID-19 substantially outnumber infected men. This pattern reverses around re…
View article: The Great Recession and Fertility in Europe: A Sub-national Analysis
The Great Recession and Fertility in Europe: A Sub-national Analysis Open
This study investigates how the changes in labour market conditions and economic growth were associated with fertility before and during the Great Recession in Europe in 2002–2014. In contrast to previous studies, which largely concentrate…
View article: Declining realisation of reproductive intentions with age
Declining realisation of reproductive intentions with age Open
STUDY QUESTION What is the likelihood of having a child within 4 years for men and women with strong short-term reproductive intentions, and how is it affected by age? SUMMARY ANSWER For women, the likelihood of realising reproductive inte…
View article: Late childbearing continues to increase in developed countries
Late childbearing continues to increase in developed countries Open
Broad societal and cultural changes since the 1970s have provided incentives for young people to postpone parenthood. The greater access to and longer pursuit of higher education, the greater involvement of women in the labour market, and …
View article: Seeding the gender revolution: Women’s education and cohort fertility among the baby boom generations
Seeding the gender revolution: Women’s education and cohort fertility among the baby boom generations Open
In Europe and the United States, women's educational attainment started to increase around the middle of the twentieth century. The expected implication was fertility decline and postponement, whereas in fact the opposite occurred. We anal…