Torben Schmith
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View article: Spatiotemporal analyses of extreme rainfall frequencies in Denmark via Bayesian hierarchical modelling using SPDE with INLA
Spatiotemporal analyses of extreme rainfall frequencies in Denmark via Bayesian hierarchical modelling using SPDE with INLA Open
This study proposes a Bayesian hierarchical model to analyze spatiotemporal patterns of extreme rainfall frequencies across Denmark, with a focus on understanding the underlying factors driving these patterns. Covariates and spatial inform…
View article: A Bayesian spatial framework for modeling extreme sub-daily precipitation in Denmark
A Bayesian spatial framework for modeling extreme sub-daily precipitation in Denmark Open
We present a new methodology for modeling the intensities of extreme sub-daily precipitation events aimed at generating spatially continuous return level maps with associated uncertainties. This supports a comprehensive understanding of ex…
View article: The Risk of Negatively Biased and Overconfident Return Level Estimates: A Critique of the Metastatistical Approach to Extremes
The Risk of Negatively Biased and Overconfident Return Level Estimates: A Critique of the Metastatistical Approach to Extremes Open
Classical extreme value analysis (EVA) often give large uncertainties on estimated return levels due to the limited length of real-world hydrological time series. The metastatistical extreme value (MEV) approach (Marani and Ignaccolo 2015)…
View article: The Crucial Role of the Subpolar North Atlantic for Skillful Decadal Climate Predictions
The Crucial Role of the Subpolar North Atlantic for Skillful Decadal Climate Predictions Open
We investigate the role of the subpolar North Atlantic (SPNA) for downstream predictability, using two decadal climate prediction systems. We use the subpolar extreme cold and fresh anomaly event developing in winter 2013/2014 as initial c…
View article: Ocean response to a century of observation-based freshwater forcing around Greenland in EC-Earth3
Ocean response to a century of observation-based freshwater forcing around Greenland in EC-Earth3 Open
The acceleration of Greenland ice sheet melting over the past decades is raising concern regarding the impacts on ocean circulation in the North Atlantic and Arctic regions. Global climate models struggle to assess these impacts as they do…
View article: Regional variation of climatological cloudburst frequency estimated from historical observations of daily precipitation sums
Regional variation of climatological cloudburst frequency estimated from historical observations of daily precipitation sums Open
Cloudburst are geographically localized extreme rainfall events where a large amount of rain falls within a few hours. The combination of small spatial scale, short duration and scarceness makes it difficult to reveal any systematic region…
View article: Regional variation of climatological cloudburst frequency estimated from historical observations of daily precipitation sums
Regional variation of climatological cloudburst frequency estimated from historical observations of daily precipitation sums Open
This study aims to estimate climatological cloudburst frequencies from daily precipitation sums for a dense network of 161 historical Danish stations covering the period 1914–2010, in order to reveal any systematic regional differences. We…
View article: Comparison of data-driven methods for linking extreme precipitation events to local and large-scale meteorological variables
Comparison of data-driven methods for linking extreme precipitation events to local and large-scale meteorological variables Open
Extreme precipitation events can lead to severe negative consequences for society, the economy, and the environment. It is therefore crucial to understand when such events occur. In the literature, there are a vast number of methods for an…
View article: Role of the subpolar North Atlantic region in skillful climate predictions for high northern latitudes: A pacemaker experiment
Role of the subpolar North Atlantic region in skillful climate predictions for high northern latitudes: A pacemaker experiment Open
Recent studies have suggested that the Atlantic water pathway connecting the subpolar North Atlantic (SPNA) with the Nordic Seas and Arctic Ocean may lead to skillful predictions of sea surface temperature and salinity anomalies in the eas…
View article: Comparison of data-driven methods for linking extreme precipitation events to large-scale drivers: A case study from Copenhagen, Denmark
Comparison of data-driven methods for linking extreme precipitation events to large-scale drivers: A case study from Copenhagen, Denmark Open
Extreme precipitation events can lead to severe negative consequences on society, the economy, and the environment. To mitigate related risks, it is crucial to understand their natural causes. There is a vast number of methods in the liter…
View article: Lessons in climate service development from Klimaatlas, the Danish National Climate Atlas
Lessons in climate service development from Klimaatlas, the Danish National Climate Atlas Open
<p>Responding to the challenges of a changing climate requires information that is relevant and actionable at the local scale where adaptation actions take place. Here we describe the development of <em>Klimaatlas</em>, t…
View article: Asymmetries in Circulation Anomalies Related to the Phases of the North Atlantic Oscillation on Synoptic Time Scales
Asymmetries in Circulation Anomalies Related to the Phases of the North Atlantic Oscillation on Synoptic Time Scales Open
The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index is often characterized by independent positive and negative NAO events with a characteristic spatial pattern and a typical lifetime of around 1 week. These events are separated by periods of near‐…
View article: The EC-Earth3 Earth system model for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6
The EC-Earth3 Earth system model for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 Open
The Earth system model EC-Earth3 for contributions to CMIP6 is documented here, with its flexible coupling framework, major model configurations, a methodology for ensuring the simulations are comparable across different high-performance c…
View article: The ocean response to freshwater forcing from Greenland as simulated by the climate model EC-Earth3
The ocean response to freshwater forcing from Greenland as simulated by the climate model EC-Earth3 Open
<p>Climate models usually can not afford to include an interactive ice sheet component for Greenland, which leads to a wrong representation of the variability of the freshwater fluxes released from the Greenland ice melt into the Nor…
View article: Positive and negative phases of the North Atlantic Oscillation &#8211; not just images in the mirror
Positive and negative phases of the North Atlantic Oscillation – not just images in the mirror Open
<p>The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is the leading mode of atmospheric variability during winter in the North Atlantic region on time scales ranging from ~5-7 days over months to the entire winter season. It influences the weathe…
View article: The role of subpolar North Atlantic as a source of predictability
The role of subpolar North Atlantic as a source of predictability Open
<p>The subpolar North Atlantic (SPNA) is a region experiencing substantial decadal variability, which has been linked to extreme weather impacts over continents. Recent studies have suggested that the connectivity with the SPNA may b…
View article: The EC-Earth3 Earth System Model for the Climate ModelIntercomparison Project 6
The EC-Earth3 Earth System Model for the Climate ModelIntercomparison Project 6 Open
The Earth System Model EC-Earth3 for contributions to CMIP6 is documented here, with its flexible coupling framework, major model configurations, a methodology for ensuring the simulations are comparable across different HPC systems, and w…
View article: Identifying robust bias adjustment methods for European extreme precipitation in a multi-model pseudo-reality setting
Identifying robust bias adjustment methods for European extreme precipitation in a multi-model pseudo-reality setting Open
Severe precipitation events occur rarely and are often localised in space and of short duration, but they are important for societal managing of infrastructure. Therefore, there is a demand for estimating future changes in the statistics o…
View article: Data Revisions and the Statistical Relation of Global Mean Sea Level and Surface Temperature
Data Revisions and the Statistical Relation of Global Mean Sea Level and Surface Temperature Open
We study the stability of estimated linear statistical relations of global mean temperature and global mean sea level with regard to data revisions. Using four different model specifications proposed in the literature, we compare coefficie…
View article: Reply to referee #2
Reply to referee #2 Open
Referee comment #2 on "Identifying robust bias adjustment methods for extreme precipitation in a pseudo-reality setting" by Torben Schmith et al.We will start by thanking the referee for a fair and thorough review.We will comment (marked w…
View article: Author reply to referee #3
Author reply to referee #3 Open
Referee comment #3 on "Identifying robust bias adjustment methods for extreme precipitation in a pseudo-reality setting" by Torben Schmith et al.We will start by thanking the referee for a fair review.We will comment (marked with »>
View article: Authors' response to referee #1
Authors' response to referee #1 Open
This is an interesting contribution involving a lot of work.I have a few general issues that the authors should address in their revisions, followed by some specific comments.Firstly -there needs to be a better discussion about the possibl…
View article: Identifying robust bias adjustment methods for extreme precipitation in a pseudo-reality setting
Identifying robust bias adjustment methods for extreme precipitation in a pseudo-reality setting Open
Severe precipitation events occur rarely and are often localized in space and of short duration; but they are important for societal managing of infrastructure. Therefore, there is a demand for estimating future changes in the statistics o…
View article: Does the AO index have predictive power regarding extreme cold temperatures in Europe?
Does the AO index have predictive power regarding extreme cold temperatures in Europe? Open
With a view to seasonal forecasting of extreme value statistics, we apply the method of Nonstationary extreme value statistics to determine the predictive power of large scale quantities. Regarding winter cold extremes over Europe, we find…
View article: Future European changes of extreme precipitation : What can we learn from inter-model cross-validation?
Future European changes of extreme precipitation : What can we learn from inter-model cross-validation? Open
<p>Severe precipitation events occur rarely and are often localized in space and of short duration, but are important for societal managing of infrastructure such as sewage systems, metros etc. Therefore, there is a demand for estima…
View article: Non-stationarity in Esbjerg sea-level returnlevels: Applications in climate change adaptation
Non-stationarity in Esbjerg sea-level returnlevels: Applications in climate change adaptation Open
Non-stationary time series modelling is applied to long tidal records from Esbjerg, Denmark, and coupled to climate change projections for sea-level and storminess, to produce projections of likely future sea-level maxima. The model has se…
View article: Better Baltic Sea wave forecasts: improving resolution or introducing ensembles?
Better Baltic Sea wave forecasts: improving resolution or introducing ensembles? Open
The performance of short-range operational forecasts of significant wave height (SWH) in the Baltic Sea is evaluated. Forecasts produced by a base configuration are intercompared with forecasts from two improved configurations: one with im…
View article: Better Baltic Sea wave forecasts: Improving resolution or introducing ensembles?
Better Baltic Sea wave forecasts: Improving resolution or introducing ensembles? Open
The performance of short-range operational forecasts of significant wave height in the Baltic Sea in three different configurations is evaluated. Forecasts produced by a base configuration are inter-compared with forecasts from two improve…
View article: Supplementary material to "Better Baltic Sea wave forecasts: Improving resolution or introducing ensembles?"
Supplementary material to "Better Baltic Sea wave forecasts: Improving resolution or introducing ensembles?" Open
Figure S 1 RMSE for selected forecast ranges for all stations for LOW, LOWENSMEAN and HIGH forecasts.Error bars show 5/95% confidence bands calculated by bootstrapping