William J. M. Probert
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View article: Author response: The age and sex dynamics of heterosexual HIV transmission in Zambia: an HPTN 071 (PopART) phylogenetic and modelling study
Author response: The age and sex dynamics of heterosexual HIV transmission in Zambia: an HPTN 071 (PopART) phylogenetic and modelling study Open
View article: The age and sex dynamics of heterosexual HIV transmission in Zambia: an HPTN 071 (PopART) phylogenetic and modelling study
The age and sex dynamics of heterosexual HIV transmission in Zambia: an HPTN 071 (PopART) phylogenetic and modelling study Open
While much progress has been made in reducing the incidence of HIV-1 infection in sub-Saharan Africa in recent years, bringing the epidemic to an end will require identification of the demographic groups that continue to contribute to tran…
View article: The age and sex dynamics of heterosexual HIV transmission in Zambia: an HPTN 071 (PopART) phylogenetic and modelling study
The age and sex dynamics of heterosexual HIV transmission in Zambia: an HPTN 071 (PopART) phylogenetic and modelling study Open
While much progress has been made in reducing the incidence of HIV-1 infection in sub-Saharan Africa in recent years, bringing the epidemic to an end will require identification of the demographic groups that continue to contribute to tran…
View article: Large connected components in sexual networks and their role in HIV transmission in Sub-Saharan Africa: A model-based analysis of HPTN 071(PopART) data
Large connected components in sexual networks and their role in HIV transmission in Sub-Saharan Africa: A model-based analysis of HPTN 071(PopART) data Open
The HIV epidemic in sub-Saharan Africa is historically characterised by high levels of prevalence and incidence. With the global effort to reach UNAIDS 95-95-95 targets, the scaling-up of HIV treatment, and focused preventive interventions…
View article: The age and sex dynamics of heterosexual HIV transmission in Zambia: an HPTN 071 (PopART) phylogenetic and modelling study
The age and sex dynamics of heterosexual HIV transmission in Zambia: an HPTN 071 (PopART) phylogenetic and modelling study Open
While much progress has been made in reducing the incidence of HIV-1 infection in sub-Saharan Africa in recent years, bringing the epidemic to an end will require identification of the demographic groups that continue to contribute to tran…
View article: Demographics of sources of HIV-1 transmission in Zambia: a molecular epidemiology analysis in the HPTN 071 PopART study
Demographics of sources of HIV-1 transmission in Zambia: a molecular epidemiology analysis in the HPTN 071 PopART study Open
View article: Implementation of WHO SMART Guidelines-Digital Adaptation Kits in Pathfinder Countries in Africa: Processes and Early Lessons Learned
Implementation of WHO SMART Guidelines-Digital Adaptation Kits in Pathfinder Countries in Africa: Processes and Early Lessons Learned Open
Background The adoption of digital systems requires processes for quality assurance and uptake of standards to achieve universal health coverage. The World Health Organization developed the Digital Adaptation Kits (DAKs) within the SMART (…
View article: Scenario design for infectious disease projections: Integrating concepts from decision analysis and experimental design
Scenario design for infectious disease projections: Integrating concepts from decision analysis and experimental design Open
View article: Implementing WHO SMART guidelines - Digital Adaptation Kits(DAKs): Early lessons from Pathfinder countries in Africa (Preprint)
Implementing WHO SMART guidelines - Digital Adaptation Kits(DAKs): Early lessons from Pathfinder countries in Africa (Preprint) Open
BACKGROUND The adoption of digital systems requires processes for quality assurance and uptake of standards to achieve universal health coverage. The World Health Organization (WHO) developed the Digital Adaptation Kits (DAKs) within the …
View article: When do we need multiple infectious disease models? Agreement between projection rank and magnitude in a multi-model setting
When do we need multiple infectious disease models? Agreement between projection rank and magnitude in a multi-model setting Open
Mathematical models are useful for public health planning and response to infectious disease threats. However, different models can provide differing results, which can hamper decision making if not synthesized appropriately. To address th…
View article: Context-dependent representation of within- and between-model uncertainty: Aggregating probabilistic predictions in infectious disease epidemiology
Context-dependent representation of within- and between-model uncertainty: Aggregating probabilistic predictions in infectious disease epidemiology Open
Probabilistic predictions support public health planning and decision making, especially in infectious disease emergencies. Aggregating outputs from multiple models yields more robust predictions of outcomes and associated uncertainty. Whi…
View article: Demographics of sources of HIV-1 transmission in Zambia: a molecular epidemiology analysis in the HPTN 071 PopART study
Demographics of sources of HIV-1 transmission in Zambia: a molecular epidemiology analysis in the HPTN 071 PopART study Open
View article: Scenario Design for Infectious Disease Projections: Integrating Concepts from Decision Analysis and Experimental Design
Scenario Design for Infectious Disease Projections: Integrating Concepts from Decision Analysis and Experimental Design Open
Across many fields, scenario modeling has become an important tool for exploring long-term projections and how they might depend on potential interventions and critical uncertainties, with relevance to both decision makers and scientists. …
View article: Participatory Mathematical Modeling Approach for Policymaking during the First Year of the COVID-19 Crisis, Jordan
Participatory Mathematical Modeling Approach for Policymaking during the First Year of the COVID-19 Crisis, Jordan Open
We engaged in a participatory modeling approach with health sector stakeholders in Jordan to support government decision-making regarding implementing public health measures to mitigate COVID-19 disease burden. We considered the effect of …
View article: The effect of universal testing and treatment for HIV on health-related quality of life – An analysis of data from the HPTN 071 (PopART) cluster randomised trial
The effect of universal testing and treatment for HIV on health-related quality of life – An analysis of data from the HPTN 071 (PopART) cluster randomised trial Open
View article: Multiple models for outbreak decision support in the face of uncertainty
Multiple models for outbreak decision support in the face of uncertainty Open
Policymakers must make management decisions despite incomplete knowledge and conflicting model projections. Little guidance exists for the rapid, representative, and unbiased collection of policy-relevant scientific input from independent …
View article: Context-dependent representation of within- and between-model uncertainty: aggregating probabilistic predictions in infectious disease epidemiology
Context-dependent representation of within- and between-model uncertainty: aggregating probabilistic predictions in infectious disease epidemiology Open
Probabilistic predictions support public health planning and decision making, especially in infectious disease emergencies. Aggregating outputs from multiple models yields more robust predictions of outcomes and associated uncertainty. Whi…
View article: Demographics of People Who Transmit HIV-1 in Zambia: A Molecular Epidemiology Analysis in the HPTN-071 PopART Study
Demographics of People Who Transmit HIV-1 in Zambia: A Molecular Epidemiology Analysis in the HPTN-071 PopART Study Open
View article: Estimating HIV Generation Time Distribution in Sub-Saharan Africa Using Phylogenetic Data from the Hptn071 Study
Estimating HIV Generation Time Distribution in Sub-Saharan Africa Using Phylogenetic Data from the Hptn071 Study Open
View article: Large-scale calibration and simulation of COVID-19 epidemiologic scenarios to support healthcare planning
Large-scale calibration and simulation of COVID-19 epidemiologic scenarios to support healthcare planning Open
The COVID-19 pandemic has provided stiff challenges for planning and resourcing in health services in the UK and worldwide. Epidemiological models can provide simulations of how infectious disease might progress in a population given certa…
View article: Projected outcomes of universal testing and treatment in a generalised HIV epidemic in Zambia and South Africa (the HPTN 071 [PopART] trial): a modelling study
Projected outcomes of universal testing and treatment in a generalised HIV epidemic in Zambia and South Africa (the HPTN 071 [PopART] trial): a modelling study Open
View article: Vote-processing rules for combining control recommendations from multiple models
Vote-processing rules for combining control recommendations from multiple models Open
Mathematical modelling is used during disease outbreaks to compare control interventions. Using multiple models, the best method to combine model recommendations is unclear. Existing methods weight model projections, then rank control inte…
View article: Estimating SARS-CoV-2 variant fitness and the impact of interventions in England using statistical and geo-spatial agent-based models
Estimating SARS-CoV-2 variant fitness and the impact of interventions in England using statistical and geo-spatial agent-based models Open
The SARS-CoV-2 epidemic has been extended by the evolution of more transmissible viral variants. In autumn 2020, the B.1.177 lineage became the dominant variant in England, before being replaced by the B.1.1.7 (Alpha) lineage in late 2020,…
View article: Synergistic interventions to control COVID-19: Mass testing and isolation mitigates reliance on distancing
Synergistic interventions to control COVID-19: Mass testing and isolation mitigates reliance on distancing Open
Stay-at-home orders and shutdowns of non-essential businesses are powerful, but socially costly, tools to control the pandemic spread of SARS-CoV-2. Mass testing strategies, which rely on widely administered frequent and rapid diagnostics …
View article: Demographics of people who transmit HIV-1 in Zambia: a molecular epidemiology analysis in the HPTN-071 PopART study
Demographics of people who transmit HIV-1 in Zambia: a molecular epidemiology analysis in the HPTN-071 PopART study Open
Background In the last decade, universally available antiretroviral therapy (ART) has led to greatly improved health and survival of people living with HIV in sub-Saharan Africa, and appears to have contributed to reduced rates of new infe…
View article: PopART-IBM, a highly efficient stochastic individual-based simulation model of generalised HIV epidemics developed in the context of the HPTN 071 (PopART) trial
PopART-IBM, a highly efficient stochastic individual-based simulation model of generalised HIV epidemics developed in the context of the HPTN 071 (PopART) trial Open
Mathematical models are powerful tools in HIV epidemiology, producing quantitative projections of key indicators such as HIV incidence and prevalence. In order to improve the accuracy of predictions, such models need to incorporate a numbe…
View article: OpenABM-Covid19—An agent-based model for non-pharmaceutical interventions against COVID-19 including contact tracing
OpenABM-Covid19—An agent-based model for non-pharmaceutical interventions against COVID-19 including contact tracing Open
SARS-CoV-2 has spread across the world, causing high mortality and unprecedented restrictions on social and economic activity. Policymakers are assessing how best to navigate through the ongoing epidemic, with computational models being us…
View article: Strategic testing approaches for targeted disease monitoring can be used to inform pandemic decision-making
Strategic testing approaches for targeted disease monitoring can be used to inform pandemic decision-making Open
More than 1.6 million Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) tests were administered daily in the United States at the peak of the epidemic, with a significant focus on individual treatment. Here, we show that objecti…
View article: Cost and cost-effectiveness of a universal HIV testing and treatment intervention in Zambia and South Africa: evidence and projections from the HPTN 071 (PopART) trial
Cost and cost-effectiveness of a universal HIV testing and treatment intervention in Zambia and South Africa: evidence and projections from the HPTN 071 (PopART) trial Open
View article: Modeling the effect of exposure notification and non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 transmission in Washington state
Modeling the effect of exposure notification and non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 transmission in Washington state Open