Yannick Timmer
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View article: Stagflationary Stock Returns
Stagflationary Stock Returns Open
We study investors’ perceptions of inflation through the lens of a high-frequency event study, documenting they have a stagflationary view of the world. In response to higher-than-expected inflation, investors expect firms’ nominal cash fl…
View article: Information Technology in Banking and Entrepreneurship
Information Technology in Banking and Entrepreneurship Open
We study the importance of information technology (IT) in banking for entrepreneurship. Guided by a parsimonious model, we establish that job creation by young firms is stronger in US counties more exposed to banks with greater IT adoption…
View article: The price of capital goods, investment and labour: Micro‐evidence from a trade liberalization
The price of capital goods, investment and labour: Micro‐evidence from a trade liberalization Open
In this paper, we show that a reduction in capital goods prices induced by trade policies can stimulate both investment and labour. We exploit a quasi‐natural experiment in the form of a trade reform in Colombia to study how firms with dif…
View article: Exchange Rate Elasticities of International Tourism and the Role of Dominant Currency Pricing
Exchange Rate Elasticities of International Tourism and the Role of Dominant Currency Pricing Open
In this paper, we estimate exchange rate elasticities of international tourism. Both the bilateral exchange rate and the U.S. dollar exchange rate relative to tourism origin countries are important drivers of tourism flows. The U.S. dollar…
View article: Distressed Firms and the Large Effects of Monetary Policy Tightenings
Distressed Firms and the Large Effects of Monetary Policy Tightenings Open
The stance of U.S. monetary policy has tightened significantly starting in March 2022. At the same time, the share of firms in financial distress has reached a level that is higher than during most previous tightening episodes since the 19…
View article: IT Shields: Technology Adoption and Economic Resilience during the COVID-19 Pandemic
IT Shields: Technology Adoption and Economic Resilience during the COVID-19 Pandemic Open
We study the labor market effects of information technology (IT) during the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, using data on IT adoption covering almost three million establishments in the US. We find that in areas where firms had adopted mor…
View article: The Anatomy of Banks’ IT Investments: Drivers and Implications
The Anatomy of Banks’ IT Investments: Drivers and Implications Open
This paper relies on administrative data to study determinants and implications of US banks' Information Technology (IT) investments, which have increased six-fold over two decades. Large and small banks had similar IT expenses a decade ag…
View article: Monetary Policy, Inflation Outlook, and Recession Probabilities
Monetary Policy, Inflation Outlook, and Recession Probabilities Open
An inverted yield curve—defined as an episode in which long-maturity Treasury yields fall below their short-maturity counterparts—is a powerful near-term predictor of recessions. While most previous studies focus on the predictive power of…
View article: Monetary Policy Under Labor Market Power
Monetary Policy Under Labor Market Power Open
Using the near universe of online vacancy postings in the U.S., we study the interaction between labor market power and monetary policy.We show empirically that labor market power amplifies the labor demand effects of monetary policy, whil…
View article: The Dominant Currency Financing Channel of External Adjustment
The Dominant Currency Financing Channel of External Adjustment Open
We provide evidence of a new channel of how exchange rates affect trade. Using a novel identification strategy that exploits firms' foreign currency debt maturity structure in Colombia around a large depreciation, we show that firms experi…
View article: The Importance of Technology in Banking during a Crisis
The Importance of Technology in Banking during a Crisis Open
What are the implications of information technology (IT) in banking for financial stability? Data on US banks' IT equipment and the background of their executives reveals that higher pre-crisis IT adoption led to fewer non-performing loans…
View article: Exchange Rate Elasticities of International Tourism and the Role of Dominant Currency Pricing
Exchange Rate Elasticities of International Tourism and the Role of Dominant Currency Pricing Open
We estimate exchange rate elasticities of international tourism.We show that, in addition to the bilateral exchange rate, the exchange rate between the tourism origin country vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar is an important driver of tourism flow…
View article: Monetary Policy, Inflation Outlook, and Recession Probabilities
Monetary Policy, Inflation Outlook, and Recession Probabilities Open
Why does the short-term slope of the yield curve predict recessions? We explore the economic forces underlying Treasury yields' fluctuations and highlight the roles of a tight monetary policy stance and expectations of lower inflation in p…
View article: Monetary policy, inflation outlook, and recession probabilities
Monetary policy, inflation outlook, and recession probabilities Open
Why does the short-term slope of the yield curve predict recessions?We explore the economic forces underlying Treasury yields' fluctuations and highlight the roles of a tight monetary policy stance and expectations of lower inflation in pr…
View article: Does IT Help? Information Technology in Banking and Entrepreneurship
Does IT Help? Information Technology in Banking and Entrepreneurship Open
This paper analyzes the importance of information technology (IT) in banking for entrepreneurship. To guide our empirical analysis, we build a parsimonious model of bank screening and lending that predicts that IT in banking can spur entre…
View article: Does IT Help? Information Technology in Banking and Entrepreneurship
Does IT Help? Information Technology in Banking and Entrepreneurship Open
This paper analyzes the importance of information technology (IT) in banking for entrepreneurship.To guide our empirical analysis, we build a parsimonious model of bank screening and lending that predicts that IT in banking can spur entrep…