Ensemble average
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Partitioning climate projection uncertainty with multiple large ensembles and CMIP5/6 Open
Partitioning uncertainty in projections of future climate change into contributions from internal variability, model response uncertainty and emissions scenarios has historically relied on making assumptions about forced changes in the mea…
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Evaluation of the Large EURO‐CORDEX Regional Climate Model Ensemble Open
The use of regional climate model (RCM)‐based projections for providing regional climate information in a research and climate service contexts is currently expanding very fast. This has been possible thanks to a considerable effort in dev…
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Extreme Precipitation Indices over China in CMIP5 Models. Part I: Model Evaluation Open
Compared to precipitation extremes calculated from a high-resolution daily observational dataset in China during 1960–2005, simulations in 31 climate models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) have been quanti…
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What can we know about future precipitation in Africa? Robustness, significance and added value of projections from a large ensemble of regional climate models Open
We employ a large ensemble of Regional Climate Models (RCMs) from the COordinated Regional-climate Downscaling EXperiment to explore two questions: (1) what can we know about the future precipitation characteristics over Africa? and (2) do…
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The role of the North Atlantic Oscillation in European climate projections Open
This study highlights the expected range of projected winter air temperature and precipitation trends over the next 30–50 years due to unpredictable fluctuations of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) superimposed upon forced anthropogeni…
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How large does a large ensemble need to be? Open
Initial-condition large ensembles with ensemble sizes ranging from 30 to 100 members have become a commonly used tool for quantifying the forced response and internal variability in various components of the climate system. However, there …
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ENSO Change in Climate Projections: Forced Response or Internal Variability? Open
Two large ensembles are used to quantify the extent to which internal variability can contribute to long‐term changes in El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) characteristics. We diagnose changes that are externally forced and distinguish be…
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Individual differences in ensemble perception reveal multiple, independent levels of ensemble representation. Open
Ensemble perception, including the ability to "see the average" from a group of items, operates in numerous feature domains (size, orientation, speed, facial expression, etc.). Although the ubiquity of ensemble representations is well esta…
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The ClimEx Project: A 50-Member Ensemble of Climate Change Projections at 12-km Resolution over Europe and Northeastern North America with the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM5) Open
The Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM5) Large Ensemble (CRCM5-LE) consists of a dynamically downscaled version of the CanESM2 50-member initial-conditions ensemble (CanESM2-LE). The downscaling was performed at 12-km resolution over tw…
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Predicting Sudden Stratospheric Warming 2018 and Its Climate Impacts With a Multimodel Ensemble Open
Sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) are significant source of enhanced subseasonal predictability, but whether this source is untapped in operational models remains an open question. Here we report on the prediction of the SSW on 12 Febru…
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Multimodel ensembles improve predictions of crop–environment–management interactions Open
A recent innovation in assessment of climate change impact on agricultural production has been to use crop multimodel ensembles ( MME s). These studies usually find large variability between individual models but that the ensemble mean (e‐…
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Projection of temperature and heat waves for Africa with an ensemble of CORDEX Regional Climate Models Open
The most severe effects of global warning will be related to the frequency and severity of extreme events. We provide an analysis of projections of temperature and related extreme events for Africa based on a large ensemble of Regional Cli…
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A projection of changes in landfalling atmospheric river frequency and extreme precipitation over western North America from the Large Ensemble CESM simulations Open
Simulations from the Community Earth System Model (CESM) Large Ensemble project are analyzed to investigate the impact of global warming on atmospheric rivers (ARs) making landfall in western North America. The model has notable biases in …
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An Intercomparison of Skill and Overconfidence/Underconfidence of the Wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation in Multimodel Seasonal Forecasts Open
Recent studies of individual seasonal forecast systems have shown that the wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) can be skillfully forecast. However, it has also been suggested that these skillful forecasts tend to be underconfident,…
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Insights into Earth’s Energy Imbalance from Multiple Sources Open
The current Earth’s energy imbalance (EEI) can best be estimated from changes in ocean heat content (OHC), complemented by top-of-atmosphere (TOA) radiation measurements and an assessment of the small non-ocean components. Sustained observ…
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Global Climate Model Ensemble Approaches for Future Projections of Atmospheric Rivers Open
Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are narrow jets of integrated water vapor transport that are important for the global water cycle and also have large impacts on local weather and regional hydrology. Uniformly weighted multi‐model averages have be…
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Using a large ensemble of simulations to assess the Northern Hemisphere stratospheric dynamical response to tropical volcanic eruptions and its uncertainty Open
The observed strengthening of the Northern Hemisphere (NH) polar vortex after tropical volcanic eruptions appears to be underestimated by coupled climate models. However, there are only a limited number of observed eruptions, which makes t…
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Exploring the impact of CMIP5 model biases on the simulation of North Atlantic decadal variability Open
Instrumental observations, paleoproxies, and climate models suggest significant decadal variability within the North Atlantic subpolar gyre (NASPG). However, a poorly sampled observational record and a diversity of model behaviors mean tha…
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Generation of the configurational ensemble of an intrinsically disordered protein from unbiased molecular dynamics simulation Open
Significance A major challenge in biology is characterizing the structural flexibility of intrinsically disordered proteins (IDPs). Ensemble-averaged experimental data do not provide the underlying protein structures. Here, we performed in…
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A Hybrid Dynamical–Statistical Downscaling Technique. Part I: Development and Validation of the Technique Open
In this study (Part I), the mid-twenty-first-century surface air temperature increase in the entire CMIP5 ensemble is downscaled to very high resolution (2 km) over the Los Angeles region, using a new hybrid dynamical–statistical technique…
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Evaluation of CMIP5 Global Climate Models for Simulating Climatological Temperature and Precipitation for Southeast Asia Open
This study evaluates the performances of all forty different global climate models (GCMs) that participate in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) for simulating climatological temperature and precipitation for Southea…
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MACC regional multi-model ensemble simulations of birch pollen dispersion in Europe Open
This paper presents the first ensemble modelling experiment in relation to birch pollen in Europe. The seven-model European ensemble of MACC-ENS, tested in trial simulations over the flowering season of 2010, was run through the flowering …
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Evaluation and Future Projection of Chinese Precipitation Extremes Using Large Ensemble High-Resolution Climate Simulations Open
Evaluation of Chinese precipitation extremes is conducted based on large ensemble projections of the present climate and 4-K-warmer climates derived from a high-resolution atmospheric general circulation model. The model reproduced the ove…
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Evaluation of New CORDEX Simulations Using an Updated Köppen–Trewartha Climate Classification Open
A new ensemble of climate and climate change simulations covering all major inhabited regions with a spatial resolution of about 25 km, from the WCRP CORDEX COmmon Regional Experiment (CORE) Framework, has been established in support of th…
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Reassessing Model Uncertainty for Regional Projections of Precipitation with an Ensemble of Statistical Downscaling Methods Open
This is the second in a pair of papers in which the performance of statistical downscaling methods (SDMs) is critically reassessed with respect to their robust applicability in climate change studies. Whereas the companion paper focused on…
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Historical evaluations and simulations of precipitation over East Africa from Rossby centre regional climate model Open
This study assesses the performance of ten Regional Climate Model (RCMs) from the latest version of Rossby Centre of Atmospheric models (RCA4) in the simulation of precipitation over Greater Horn of Africa (GHA) from 1951–2005. The evaluat…
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Assessing natural variability in RCM signals: comparison of a multi model EURO-CORDEX ensemble with a 50-member single model large ensemble Open
Uncertainties in climate model ensembles are still relatively large. Besides scenario and model response uncertainty, natural variability is another important source of uncertainty. To study regional natural variability on timescales of se…
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Multimodel Ensembling of Subseasonal Precipitation Forecasts over North America Open
Probabilistic forecasts of weekly and week 3–4 averages of precipitation are constructed using extended logistic regression (ELR) applied to three models (ECMWF, NCEP, and CMA) from the Subseasonal-to-Seasonal (S2S) project. Individual and…
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Impact of climate change on hydrological conditions in a tropical West African catchment using an ensemble of climate simulations Open
This study evaluates climate change impacts on water resources using an ensemble of six regional climate models (RCMs)–global climate models (GCMs) in the Dano catchment (Burkina Faso). The applied climate datasets were performed in the fr…
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EURO‐CORDEX regional climate model analysis for the Greater Alpine Region: Performance and expected future change Open
Simulations from 13 highly resolved regional climate models run within the Coordinated Downscaling Experiment initiative at 0.11° resolution with boundary forcings from five different Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 global mo…