Geopotential height
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Global Mean Climate and Main Patterns of Variability in the CMCC‐CM2 Coupled Model Open
Euro‐Mediterranean Centre on Climate Change coupled climate model (CMCC‐CM2) represents the new family of the global coupled climate models developed and used at CMCC. It is based on the atmospheric, land and sea ice components from the Co…
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The European 2015 drought from a climatological perspective Open
The summer drought of 2015 affected a large portion of continental Europe and was one of the most severe droughts in the region since summer 2003. The summer of 2015 was characterized by exceptionally high temperatures in many parts of cen…
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Can Machines Learn to Predict Weather? Using Deep Learning to Predict Gridded 500‐hPa Geopotential Height From Historical Weather Data Open
We develop elementary weather prediction models using deep convolutional neural networks (CNNs) trained on past weather data to forecast one or two fundamental meteorological fields on a Northern Hemisphere grid with no explicit knowledge …
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The last millennium climate reanalysis project: Framework and first results Open
An “offline” approach to DA is used, where static ensemble samples are drawn from existing CMIP climate‐model simulations to serve as the prior estimate of climate variables. We use linear, univariate forward models (“proxy system models (…
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Local and synoptic meteorological influences on daily variability in summertime surface ozone in eastern China Open
Ozone pollution in China is influenced by meteorological processes on multiple scales. Using regression analysis and weather classification, we statistically assess the impacts of local and synoptic meteorology on daily variability in surf…
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Hydrology needed to manage droughts: the 2015 European case Open
It is generally accepted that drought is one of the most costly weather‐related natural hazards. In 2015, a long‐lasting drought hit Europe, particularly affecting central and eastern Europe. In some regions it was the driest (North Slovak…
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An Evaluation of the Performance of the Twentieth Century Reanalysis Version 3 Open
The performance of a new historical reanalysis, the NOAA–CIRES–DOE Twentieth Century Reanalysis version 3 (20CRv3), is evaluated via comparisons with other reanalyses and independent observations. This dataset provides global, 3-hourly est…
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Unprecedented atmospheric conditions (1948–2019) drive the 2019 exceptional melting season over the Greenland ice sheet Open
Understanding the role of atmospheric circulation anomalies on the surface mass balance of the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) is fundamental for improving estimates of its current and future contributions to sea level rise. Here, we show, usin…
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Influence of blocking on Northern European and Western Russian heatwaves in large climate model ensembles Open
Better preparedness for summer heatwaves could mitigate their adverse effects on society. This can potentially be attained through an increased understanding of the relationship between heatwaves and one of their main dynamical drivers, at…
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The evolution, seasonality and impacts of western disturbances Open
Western disturbances (WDs) are upper‐level synoptic‐scale systems embedded in the subtropical westerly jet stream (STWJ), often associated with extreme rainfall events in north India and Pakistan during boreal winter. Here, a tracking algo…
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Performance of the New NCEP Global Ensemble Forecast System in a Parallel Experiment Open
A new version of the Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS, v11) is tested and compared with the operational version (v10) in a 2-yr parallel run. The breeding-based scheme with ensemble transformation and rescaling (ETR) used in the opera…
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The 2018 northern European hydrological drought and its drivers in a historical perspective Open
In 2018, large parts of northern Europe were affected by an extreme drought. A better understanding of the characteristics and the large-scale atmospheric circulation driving such events is of high importance to enhance drought forecasting…
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The European 2016/17 Drought Open
We have analyzed the record-breaking drought that affected western and central Europe from July 2016 to June 2017. It caused widespread impacts on water supplies, agriculture, and hydroelectric power production, and was associated with for…
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Northern Hemisphere Atmospheric Blocking Representation in Global Climate Models: Twenty Years of Improvements? Open
The correct simulation of midlatitude atmospheric blocking has always been a main concern since the earliest days of numerical modeling of Earth’s atmosphere. To this day blocking represents a considerable source of error for general circu…
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The CNRM Global Atmosphere Model ARPEGE‐Climat 6.3: Description and Evaluation Open
The present study describes the atmospheric component of the sixth‐generation climate models of the Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques (CNRM), namely, ARPEGE‐Climat 6.3. It builds up on more than a decade of model development an…
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Using Machine Learning to Analyze Physical Causes of Climate Change: A Case Study of U.S. Midwest Extreme Precipitation Open
While global warming has generally increased the occurrence of extreme precipitation, the physical mechanisms by which climate change alters regional and local precipitation extremes remain uncertain, with debate about the role of changes …
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Northern Hemisphere blocking simulation in current climate models: evaluating progress from the Climate Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 to 6 and sensitivity to resolution Open
Global climate models (GCMs) are known to suffer from biases in the simulation of atmospheric blocking, and this study provides an assessment of how blocking is represented by the latest generation of GCMs. It is evaluated (i) how historic…
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Connecting Atmospheric Blocking to European Temperature Extremes in Spring Open
Atmospheric blocking is an important contributor to European temperature variability. It can trigger cold and warm spells, which is of specific relevance in spring because vegetation is particularly vulnerable to extreme temperatures in th…
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A new climate index controlling winter wave activity along the Atlantic coast of Europe: The West Europe Pressure Anomaly Open
A pioneering and replicable method based on a 66‐year numerical weather and wave hindcast is developed to optimize a climate index based on the sea level pressure (SLP) that best explains winter wave height variability along the coast of w…
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The 2020 Siberian heat wave Open
Siberia saw a heat wave of extreme monthly temperatures of +6°C anomalies from January through May 2020, culminating with near daily temperature records at the Arctic station of Verhojansk in mid‐June. This was a major Arctic event. The pr…
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Deep Learning for Spatially Explicit Prediction of Synoptic-Scale Fronts Open
This paper describes the use of convolutional neural nets (CNN), a type of deep learning, to identify fronts in gridded data, followed by a novel postprocessing method that converts probability grids to objects. Synoptic-scale fronts are o…
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Forecasting Global Weather with Graph Neural Networks Open
We present a data-driven approach for forecasting global weather using graph neural networks. The system learns to step forward the current 3D atmospheric state by six hours, and multiple steps are chained together to produce skillful fore…
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Pangu-Weather: A 3D High-Resolution Model for Fast and Accurate Global Weather Forecast Open
In this paper, we present Pangu-Weather, a deep learning based system for fast and accurate global weather forecast. For this purpose, we establish a data-driven environment by downloading $43$ years of hourly global weather data from the …
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Interannual variability of heat waves in South Korea and their connection with large‐scale atmospheric circulation patterns Open
This study investigates the interannual variation of heat wave frequency ( HWF ) in South Korea during the past 42 years (1973–2014) and examines its connection with large‐scale atmospheric circulation changes. Korean heat waves tend to de…
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Observed and Simulated Teleconnections Between the Stratospheric Quasi‐Biennial Oscillation and Northern Hemisphere Winter Atmospheric Circulation Open
The Quasi‐Biennial Oscillation (QBO) is the dominant mode of interannual variability in the tropical stratosphere, with easterly and westerly zonal wind regimes alternating over a period of about 28 months. It appears to influence the Nort…
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The Canadian Seasonal to Interannual Prediction System Version 2 (CanSIPSv2) Open
The second version of the Canadian Seasonal to Interannual Prediction System (CanSIPSv2) was implemented operationally at Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) in July 2019. Like its predecessors, CanSIPSv2 applies a multimodel ense…
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Local and teleconnected temperature effects of afforestation and vegetation greening in China Open
Afforestation in China provides carbon sequestration and prevents soil erosion, but its remote impacts on climate in other regions via the coupling of forest energy fluxes with atmospheric circulation are largely unknown. Here, we prescrib…
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The North Atlantic–Eurasian teleconnection in summer and its effects on Eurasian climates Open
A teleconnection between the North Atlantic Ocean and the Eurasian continent is suggested by statistical and dynamical analysis of the northern summer 500 hPa geopotential height field. This teleconnection, termed the Atlantic–Eurasian (AE…
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Impacts of Spatiotemporal Anomalies of Tibetan Plateau Snow Cover on Summer Precipitation in Eastern China Open
Tibetan Plateau (TP) snow cover undergoes significant temporal and spatial variations during the winter and spring months. This study investigates the relationship between the spatiotemporal distribution of winter–spring snow cover (SC) ov…
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Spatiotemporal Patterns and Synoptics of Extreme Wet‐Bulb Temperature in the Contiguous United States Open
Extremes of wet‐bulb temperature (WBT)—jointly reflecting temperature and specific humidity—have seen relatively little study in terms of climatology, despite their demonstrated relevance for health and economic impacts. In this study, we …