Inflation (cosmology)
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<i>Planck</i>2018 results Open
We report on the implications for cosmic inflation of the 2018 release of the Planck cosmic microwave background (CMB) anisotropy measurements. The results are fully consistent with those reported using the data from the two previous Planc…
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Planck 2015 results Open
We present the implications for cosmic inflation of the Planck measurements of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) anisotropies in both temperature and polarization based on the full Planck survey, which includes more than twice the inte…
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Sparse data bias: a problem hiding in plain sight Open
Effects of treatment or other exposure on outcome events are commonly measured by ratios of risks, rates, or odds. Adjusted versions of these measures are usually estimated by maximum likelihood regression (eg, logistic, Poisson, or Cox mo…
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Semianalytic calculation of gravitational wave spectrum nonlinearly induced from primordial curvature perturbations Open
Whether or not the primordial gravitational wave (GW) produced during\ninflation is sufficiently strong to be observable, GWs are necessarily produced\nfrom the primordial curvature perturbations in the second order of\nperturbation. The i…
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The Cost of the Covid-19 Crisis: Lockdowns, Macroeconomic Expectations, and Consumer Spending Open
We study how the differential timing of local lockdowns due to COVID-19 causally affects households' spending and macroeconomic expectations at the local level using several waves of a customized survey with more than 10,000 respondents.Ab…
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The New Tools of Monetary Policy Open
To overcome the limits on traditional monetary policy imposed by the effective lower bound on short-term interest rates, in recent years the Federal Reserve and other advanced-economy central banks have deployed new policy tools. This lect…
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Adjusting Health Expenditures for Inflation: A Review of Measures for Health Services Research in the United States Open
Objective To provide guidance on selecting the most appropriate price index for adjusting health expenditures or costs for inflation. Data Sources Major price index series produced by federal statistical agencies. Study Design We compare t…
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Monetary Policy Communications and Their Effects on Household Inflation Expectations Open
We study how different forms of communication influence inflation expectations in a randomized controlled trial using nearly 20,000 US individuals. We elicit individuals’ inflation expectations and then provide eight different forms of inf…
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Vector dark matter from inflationary fluctuations Open
We calculate the production of a massive vector boson by quantum fluctuations\nduring inflation. This gives a novel dark-matter production mechanism quite\ndistinct from misalignment or thermal production. While scalars and tensors are\nty…
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Inflation Expectations, Learning, and Supermarket Prices: Evidence from Survey Experiments Open
Information frictions play a central role in the formation of household inflation expectations, but there is no consensus about their origins. We address this question with novel evidence from survey experiments. We document two main findi…
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Science with the space-based interferometer LISA. IV: probing inflation with gravitational waves Open
We investigate the potential for the LISA space-based interferometer to detect the stochastic gravitational wave background produced from different mechanisms during in ation. Focusing on well-motivated scenarios, we study the resulting co…
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Impact of COVID-19’s Pandemic on the Economy of Indonesia Open
COVID-19 is a global health problem including in Indonesia. The increased case of COVID-19 proved to have quite a significant impact on the economy globally which may have affected stability in Indonesia. This method of collecting data is …
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A Model of Secular Stagnation: Theory and Quantitative Evaluation Open
This paper formalizes and quantifies the secular stagnation hypothesis, defined as a persistently low or negative natural rate of interest leading to a chronically binding zero lower bound (ZLB). Output-inflation dynamics and policy prescr…
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An Excess of Positive Results: Comparing the Standard Psychology Literature With Registered Reports Open
Selectively publishing results that support the tested hypotheses (“positive” results) distorts the available evidence for scientific claims. For the past decade, psychological scientists have been increasingly concerned about the degree o…
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Planck 2015 results: XVII. Constraints on primordial non-Gaussianity Open
The Planck full mission cosmic microwave background (CMB) temperature and E-mode polarization maps are analysed to obtain constraints on primordial non-Gaussianity (NG). Using three classes of optimal bispectrum estimators-separable templa…
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Dampak Covid-19 Terhadap Ekonomi Indonesia Open
Since the beginning of 2020 precisely in March, Indonesia has been horrified by one of the phenomena that is the covid-19 pandemic. As of August 2020, the total number of cases in Indonesia was 165,887 with 7,169 deaths in 34 provinces. Th…
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A cosmological signature of the SM Higgs instability: gravitational waves Open
A fundamental property of the Standard Model is that the Higgs potential becomes unstable at large values of the Higgs field. For the current central values of the Higgs and top masses, the instability scale is about 10 11 GeV and therefor…
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Steepest growth of the power spectrum and primordial black holes Open
We derive analytic bounds on the shape of the primordial power spectrum in the context of single-field inflation. In particular, the steepest possible growth has a spectral index of ns − 1 = 4 once transients have died down. Its primary im…
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Primordial black hole dark matter from single field inflation Open
We propose a model of inflation capable of generating a population of light black holes (about 10–16–10–14 solar masses) that might account for a significant fraction of the dark matter in the Universe. The effective potential of the model…
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Inflation Dynamics during the Financial Crisis Open
Using a novel dataset, which merges good-level prices underlying the PPI with the respondents' balance sheets, we show that liquidity constrained firms increased prices in 2008, while their unconstrained counterparts cut prices. We develop…
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Socio-economic status scales updated for 2017 Open
The health status of any country depends on the socio-economic status (SES) and the per capita income of its citizens. The SES also decides the affordability and utilization of the health facilities. Constant changes in the price of goods …
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Impacts of COVID-19 on Trade and Economic Aspects of Food Security: Evidence from 45 Developing Countries Open
The stability of food supply chains is crucial to the food security of people around the world. Since the beginning of 2020, this stability has been undergoing one of the most vigorous pressure tests ever due to the COVID-19 outbreak. From…
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Variance Inflation Factor and Condition Number in multiple linear regression Open
The Variance Inflation Factor and the Condition Number are measures traditionally applied to detect the presence of collinearity in a multiple linear model. This paper presents the relation and the difference between both measures from the…
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Primordial black holes and slow-roll violation Open
For primordial black holes (PBH) to be the dark matter in single-field\ninflation, the slow-roll approximation must be violated by at least ${\\cal\nO}(1)$ in order to enhance the curvature power spectrum within the required\nnumber of efo…
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NANOGrav Data Hints at Primordial Black Holes as Dark Matter Open
The NANOGrav Collaboration has recently published strong evidence for a stochastic common-spectrum process that may be interpreted as a stochastic gravitational wave background. We show that such a signal can be explained by second-order g…
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Single field double inflation and primordial black holes Open
Within the framework of scalar-tensor theories, we study the conditions that allow single field inflation dynamics on small cosmological scales to significantly differ from that of the large scales probed by the observations of cosmic micr…
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Unemployment and Business Cycles Open
We develop and estimate a general equilibrium search and matching model that accounts for key business cycle properties of macroeconomic aggregates, including labor market variables. In sharp contrast to leading New Keynesian models, we do…
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A Model of the International Monetary System* Open
We propose a simple model of the international monetary system. We study the world supply and demand for reserve assets denominated in different currencies under a variety of scenarios: a hegemon versus a multipolar world; abundant versus …
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Asian Development Outlook 2023 Open
This publication highlights brighter economic prospects for Asia and the Pacific amid ongoing challenges. It forecasts growth across the region’s developing economies of 4.8% this year and in 2024, up from 4.2% in 2022. The reopening of th…
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Scalaron from <i>R</i><sup>2</sup>-gravity as a heavy field Open
We study a model of inflation in which a scalar field $\chi$ is non-minimally coupled to Starobinsky's $R^2$ gravity. After transforming it to the Einstein frame, a new scalar field, the scalaron $\phi$, will appear and couple to $\chi$ wi…