Phillips curve ≈ Phillips curve
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It’s Baaack: The Surge in Inflation in the 2020s and the Return of the Non-Linear Phillips Curve Open
This paper proposes a non-linear New Keynesian Phillips curve (Inv-L NK Phillips Curve) to explain the surge of inflation in the 2020s.Economic slack is measured as firms' job vacancies over the number of unemployed workers.After showing e…
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Networks, Phillips Curves, and Monetary Policy Open
This paper revisits the New Keynesian framework, theoretically and quantitatively, in an economy with multiple sectors and input‐output linkages. Analytical expressions for the Phillips curve and welfare, derived as a function of primitive…
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A Phillips Curve with Anchored Expectations and Short‐Term Unemployment Open
This paper examines the behavior of U.S. core inflation, as measured by the weighted median of industry price changes. We find that core inflation since 1985 is well‐explained by an expectations‐augmented Phillips curve in which expected i…
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Monetary policy under behavioral expectations: Theory and experiment Open
Expectations play a crucial role in modern macroeconomic models. We consider a New Keynesian framework under a behavioral model of expectation formation and under rational expectations. Contrary to the rational model, the behavioral model …
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Has the U.S. Wage Phillips Curve Flattened? A Semi-Structural Exploration Open
Unconditional reduced form estimates of a conventional wage Phillips curve for the U.S. economy point to a decline in its slope coefficient in recent years, as well as a shrinking role of lagged price inflation in the determination of wage…
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Unemployment–inflation trade-offs in OECD countries Open
© 2016 The Author. Inflation and unemployment reduce welfare of individuals and should be as low as possible in any economy. Cointegration and Granger causality tests suggest that there are long run relations between these two variables am…
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Who Killed the Phillips Curve? A Murder Mystery Open
Is the Phillips curve dead? If so, who killed it? Conventional wisdom has it that the sound monetary policy since the 1980s not only conquered the Great Inflation, but also buried the Phillips curve itself. This paper provides an alternati…
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Inflation Dynamics: Dead, Dormant, or Determined Abroad? Open
Inflation dynamics have been difficult to explain over the last decade. This paper explores whether a more comprehensive treatment of globalization can help. CPI inflation has become more synchronized around the world since the 2008 crisis…
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The Slope of the Phillips Curve: Evidence from U.S. States Open
We estimate the slope of the Phillips curve in the cross section of U.S. states using newly constructed state-level price indexes for non-tradeable goods back to 1978.Our estimates indicate that the slope of the Phillips curve is small and…
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Estimates of the Sticky-Information Phillips Curve for the United States, Canada, and the United Kingdom Open
Mankiw and Reis (2001a) have proposed a "sticky-information"-based Phillips curve (SIPC) to address some of the concerns with the "sticky-price"-based new Keynesian Phillips curve. In this paper, we present a methodology for the empirical …
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The Relative Power of Employment-to-Employment Reallocation and Unemployment Exits in Predicting Wage Growth Open
We study the cyclical comovement nominal wage growth (either monthly earnings or hourly wage rate) and labor market flows. We use microdata from the Survey of Income and Program Participation over 1996-2013 to purge composition effects in …
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A Model of the Fed's View on Inflation Open
We develop a medium-size semistructural time series model of inflation dynamics that is consistent with the view, often expressed by central banks, that three components are important: a trend anchored by long-run expectations, a Phillips …
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International Trade and the Connection Between Excess Demand and Inflation Open
author can archive pre-print (ie pre-refereeing). Publisher source must be acknowledged with citation. http://ezproxy.lib.ucalgary.ca/login?url=http://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&db=bsh&AN=18257882&site=ehost-live Must link…
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Non-Linearities in the Output-Inflation Relationship: Some Empirical Results for Canada Open
This paper analyzes the short-run dynamic process of inflation in Canada and examines whether a systematic variation in the relationship between inflation and output can be detected over time. In the theoretical literature, different model…
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Nonlinearities in the Phillips Curve for the United States: Evidence Using Metropolitan Data Open
With the unemployment rate in the United States currently below estimates of its natural rate we examine if the relationship between inflation and unemployment is nonlinear. Using aggregate data we are unable to reject a linear relationshi…
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Do Phillips Curves Conditionally Help to Forecast Inflation? Open
This paper reexamines the forecasting ability of Phillips curves from both an unconditional and conditional perspective by applying the method developed by Giacomini and White (2006).We find that forecasts from our Phillips curve models te…
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A Unified Approach to Measuring u* Open
This paper bridges the gap between two popular approaches to estimating the natural rate of unemployment, [inline-graphic 01]. The first approach uses detailed labor market indicators, such as labor market flows, cross-sectional data on un…
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The Unemployment-Inflation Trade-off Revisited: The Phillips Curve in COVID Times Open
We estimate the natural rate of unemployment, often referred to as u*, in the United States using data on labor market flows, short-term and long-term inflation expectations and a forwardlooking New-Keynesian Phillips curve for the 1960-20…
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Anchored Inflation Expectations and the Slope of the Phillips Curve Open
We estimate a New Keynesian Phillips curve that allows for changes in the degree of anchoring of agents' subjective inflation forecasts. The estimated slope coefficient in U.S. data is stable over the period 1960 to 2019. Out-of-sample for…
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Determinants of Inflation Differentials in the Euro Area: Is the New Keynesian Phillips Curve Enough? Open
In the euro area, inflation rates diverged after the creation of the single currency, and started to converge again from mid-2002. It is against this background that the paper studies the determinants of inflation differentials in the euro…
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The 2020-2022 Inflation Surge Across Europe: A Phillips-Curve-Based Dissection Open
In 2021-22, inflation in Europe soared to multidecade highs, consistently exceeding policymakers' forecasts and surprising with its wide cross-country dispersion. This paper analyzes the key drivers of the inflation surge in Europe and its…
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Retrospectives: Cost-Push and Demand-Pull Inflation: Milton Friedman and the “Cruel Dilemma” Open
This paper addresses two conflicting views in the 1950s and 1960s about the inflation-unemployment tradeoff as given by the Phillips curve. Many economists at this time emphasized the issue of a seemingly unavoidable inflationary pressure …
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Mind the Output Gap: The Disconnect of Growth and Inflation during Recessions and Convex Phillips Curves in the Euro Area Open
We develop a theoretical model that features a business cycle‐dependent relation between output, price inflation and inflation expectations, augmenting the model by Svensson (1997) with a nonlinear Phillips curve that reflects the rational…
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The Canadian Phillips Curve and Regime Shifting Open
Phillips curves are generally estimated under the assumption of linearity and parameter constancy. Linear models of inflation, however, have recently been criticized for their poor forecasting performance. The author investigates the linea…
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Is Oil Price Still Driving Inflation? Open
In this paper, we empirically investigate the effects of oil price changes on inflation over the period 1991-2016 for eight industrial countries: the United States, Canada, Japan, Australia, Germany, France, Italy, and the UK. In doing so,…
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The macroeconomy as a random forest Open
Summary I develop the macroeconomic random forest (MRF), an algorithm adapting the canonical machine learning (ML) tool, to flexibly model evolving parameters in a linear macro equation. Its main output, generalized time‐varying parameters…
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Trade openness and inflation: The role of real and nominal price rigidities Open
The paper revisits the long-standing question of the impact of trade openness on the inflation–output trade-off by accounting for the effects of product market competition on price flexibility. The study develops a New-Keynesian open-econo…
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On the Nature and the Stability of the Canadian Phillips Curve Open
This paper empirically determines why, during the 1990s, inflation in Canada was consistently more stable than predicted by the fixed-coefficients Phillips curve. A time-varying-coefficient model, where all the parameters adjust simultaneo…
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Is There a Stable Relationship between Unemployment and Future Inflation? Open
The empirical literature on the stability of the Phillips curve has largely ignored the bias that endogenous monetary policy imparts on estimated Phillips curve coefficients. We argue that this omission has important implications. When pol…
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Low Inflation Bends the Phillips Curve around the World Open
This paper finds strong support for a Phillips curve that becomes nonlinear when inflation is "low"-which our baseline model defines as less than 3 percent.The nonlinear curve is steep when output is above potential (slack is negative), bu…