Representative Concentration Pathways
View article: The shared socio-economic pathway (SSP) greenhouse gas concentrations and their extensions to 2500
The shared socio-economic pathway (SSP) greenhouse gas concentrations and their extensions to 2500 Open
Anthropogenic increases in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations are the main driver of current and future climate change. The integrated assessment community has quantified anthropogenic emissions for the shared socio-economic pathway…
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Will drought events become more frequent and severe in Europe? Open
As a result of climate change in recent past and unsustainable land management, drought became one of the most impacting disasters and, with the projected global warming, it is expected to progressively cause more damages by the end of the…
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Bounding Global Aerosol Radiative Forcing of Climate Change Open
Aerosols interact with radiation and clouds. Substantial progress made over the past 40 years in observing, understanding, and modeling these processes helped quantify the imbalance in the Earth's radiation budget caused by anthropogenic a…
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Global projections of river flood risk in a warmer world Open
Rising global temperature has put increasing pressure on understanding the linkage between atmospheric warming and the occurrence of natural hazards. While the Paris Agreement has set the ambitious target to limiting global warming to 1.5°…
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Twenty-first century ocean warming, acidification, deoxygenation, and upper-ocean nutrient and primary production decline from CMIP6 model projections Open
Anthropogenic climate change is projected to lead to ocean warming, acidification, deoxygenation, reductions in near-surface nutrients, and changes to primary production, all of which are expected to affect marine ecosystems. Here we asses…
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RCP8.5 tracks cumulative CO <sub>2</sub> emissions Open
Climate simulation-based scenarios are routinely used to characterize a range of plausible climate futures. Despite some recent progress on bending the emissions curve, RCP8.5, the most aggressive scenario in assumed fossil fuel use for gl…
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Assessing the impacts of 1.5 °C global warming – simulation protocol of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP2b) Open
In Paris, France, December 2015, the Conference of the Parties (COP) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) invited the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to provide a special report in 2018 on …
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The unprecedented 2015/16 Tasman Sea marine heatwave Open
The Tasman Sea off southeast Australia exhibited its longest and most intense marine heatwave ever recorded in 2015/16. Here we report on several inter-related aspects of this event: observed characteristics, physical drivers, ecological i…
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Temperature-driven global sea-level variability in the Common Era Open
Significance We present the first, to our knowledge, estimate of global sea-level (GSL) change over the last ∼3,000 years that is based upon statistical synthesis of a global database of regional sea-level reconstructions. GSL varied by ∼±…
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Uncertainty in ensembles of global biodiversity scenarios Open
While there is a clear demand for scenarios that provide alternative states in biodiversity with respect to future emissions, a thorough analysis and communication of the associated uncertainties is still missing. Here, we modelled the glo…
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Projected Change in Temperature and Precipitation Over Africa from CMIP6 Open
We analyze data of 27 global climate models from the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), and examine projected changes in temperature and precipitation over the African continent during the twenty-first centur…
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Climate change is projected to have severe impacts on the frequency and intensity of peak electricity demand across the United States Open
Significance The existing empirical literature on the impacts of climate change on the electricity sector has focused on changing electricity consumption patterns. In this paper, we show that incorporating impacts on the frequency and inte…
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Extreme sea levels on the rise along Europe's coasts Open
Future extreme sea levels ( ESLs ) and flood risk along European coasts will be strongly impacted by global warming. Yet, comprehensive projections of ESL that include mean sea level ( MSL ), tides, waves, and storm surges do not exist. He…
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Quantifying excess deaths related to heatwaves under climate change scenarios: A multicountry time series modelling study Open
This study provides a comprehensive characterisation of future heatwave-related excess mortality across various regions and under alternative scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions, different assumptions of adaptation, and different scenari…
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A High-Resolution Global Dataset of Extreme Sea Levels, Tides, and Storm Surges, Including Future Projections Open
The world’s coastal areas are increasingly at risk of coastal flooding due to sea-level rise (SLR). We present a novel global dataset of extreme sea levels, the Coastal Dataset for the Evaluation of Climate Impact (CoDEC), which can be use…
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Future heat-waves, droughts and floods in 571 European cities Open
Cities are particularly vulnerable to climate risks due to their agglomeration of people, buildings and infrastructure. Differences in methodology, hazards considered, and climate models used limit the utility and comparability of climate …
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Projecting global urban land expansion and heat island intensification through 2050 Open
Urban populations are expected to increase by 2–3 billion by 2050, but we have limited understanding of how future global urban expansion will affect urban heat island (UHI) and hence change the geographic distributions of extreme heat ris…
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Climate Change and Future Pollen Allergy in Europe Open
Our quantitative estimates indicate that ragweed pollen allergy will become a common health problem across Europe, expanding into areas where it is currently uncommon. Control of ragweed spread may be an important adaptation strategy in re…
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Projected Impacts of Climate Change on Drought Patterns Over East Africa Open
Investigation of the pressing impacts of climate change on drought is vital for sustainable societal and ecosystem functioning. The magnitude of how much the drought will change and the way how droughts would affect society and the environ…
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Projecting shifts in thermal habitat for 686 species on the North American continental shelf Open
Recent shifts in the geographic distribution of marine species have been linked to shifts in preferred thermal habitats. These shifts in distribution have already posed challenges for living marine resource management, and there is a stron…
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Projected sea surface temperatures over the 21st century: Changes in the mean, variability and extremes for large marine ecosystem regions of Northern Oceans Open
Global climate models were used to assess changes in the mean, variability and extreme sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in northern oceans with a focus on large marine ecosystems (LMEs) adjacent to North America, Europe, and the Arctic Ocea…
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The IPCC Sixth Assessment Report WGIII climate assessment of mitigation pathways: from emissions to global temperatures Open
While the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) physical science reports usually assess a handful of future scenarios, the Working Group III contribution on climate mitigation to the IPCC's Sixth Assessment Report (AR6 WGIII) as…
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Global Analysis of Climate Change Projection Effects on Atmospheric Rivers Open
A uniform, global approach is used to quantify how atmospheric rivers (ARs) change between Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 historical simulations and future projections under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5…
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Mapping the global potential distributions of two arboviral vectors Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus under changing climate Open
BackgroundAedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus are the primary vectors that transmit several arboviral diseases, including dengue, chikungunya, and Zika. The world is presently experiencing a series of outbreaks of these diseases, so, we still…
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Global exposure and vulnerability to multi-sector development and climate change hotspots Open
Understanding the interplay between multiple climate change risks and socioeconomic development is increasingly required to inform effective actions to manage these risks and pursue sustainable development. We calculate a set of 14 impact …
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Impacts of climate change on rice production in Africa and causes of simulated yield changes Open
This study is the first of its kind to quantify possible effects of climate change on rice production in Africa. We simulated impacts on rice in irrigated systems (dry season and wet season) and rainfed systems (upland and lowland). We sim…
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The credibility challenge for global fluvial flood risk analysis Open
Quantifying flood hazard is an essential component of resilience planning, emergency response, and mitigation, including insurance. Traditionally undertaken at catchment and national scales, recently, efforts have intensified to estimate f…
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The Mediterranean climate change hotspot in the CMIP5 and CMIP6 projections Open
The enhanced warming trend and precipitation decline in the Mediterranean region make it a climate change hotspot. We compare projections of multiple Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) and Phase 6 (CMIP6) historical and …
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Future drought characteristics through a multi-model ensemble from CMIP6 over South Asia Open
To characterize future drought events over a drought prone area like South Asia is paramount for drought risk mitigation. In this paper, a five-model ensemble mean from CMIP6 was chosen to project drought characteristics in South Asia unde…
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Half a degree additional warming, prognosis and projected impacts (HAPPI): background and experimental design Open
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has accepted the invitation from the UNFCCC to provide a special report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels and on related global greenhouse-gas emissi…