Atlantic hurricane ≈ Atlantic hurricane
View article: A sea change in our view of overturning in the subpolar North Atlantic
A sea change in our view of overturning in the subpolar North Atlantic Open
An array of overturning data The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) has a strong influence on climate, so it is important to understand how global warming may affect it. Lozier et al. report initial results from the Overtur…
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FourCastNet: A Global Data-driven High-resolution Weather Model using Adaptive Fourier Neural Operators Open
FourCastNet, short for Fourier Forecasting Neural Network, is a global data-driven weather forecasting model that provides accurate short to medium-range global predictions at $0.25^{\circ}$ resolution. FourCastNet accurately forecasts hig…
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Recent Progress in Tropical Cyclone Intensity Forecasting at the National Hurricane Center Open
It has been well documented that the National Hurricane Center (NHC) has made significant improvements in Atlantic basin tropical cyclone (TC) track forecasting during the past half century. In contrast, NHC’s TC intensity forecast errors …
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Detected climatic change in global distribution of tropical cyclones Open
Owing to the limited length of observed tropical cyclone data and the effects of multidecadal internal variability, it has been a challenge to detect trends in tropical cyclone activity on a global scale. However, there is a distinct spati…
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Machine Learning in Tropical Cyclone Forecast Modeling: A Review Open
Tropical cyclones have always been a concern of meteorologists, and there are many studies regarding the axisymmetric structures, dynamic mechanisms, and forecasting techniques from the past 100 years. This research demonstrates the ongoin…
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Will Global Warming Make Hurricane Forecasting More Difficult? Open
Hurricane track forecasts have improved steadily over the past few decades, yet forecasting hurricane intensity remains challenging. Of special concern are the rare instances of tropical cyclones that intensify rapidly just before landfall…
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The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in High‐Resolution Models Open
The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) represents the zonally integrated stream function of meridional volume transport in the Atlantic Basin. The AMOC plays an important role in transporting heat meridionally in the climat…
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Declining tropical cyclone frequency under global warming Open
Assessing the role of anthropogenic warming from temporally inhomogeneous historical data in the presence of large natural variability is difficult and has caused conflicting conclusions on detection and attribution of tropical cyclone (TC…
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Sensitivity of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation to Model Resolution in CMIP6 HighResMIP Simulations and Implications for Future Changes Open
A multimodel, multiresolution ensemble using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) High Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP) coupled experiments is used to assess the performance of key aspects of the North…
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Tropical Cyclone Frequency Open
The frequency with which tropical cyclones (TCs) occur controls all other aspects of tropical cyclone risk since a storm that does not occur can do no harm. Yet this frequency is poorly understood. There is no accepted theory that explains…
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Trends in Global Tropical Cyclone Activity: 1990–2021 Open
This study investigates global tropical cyclone (TC) activity trends from 1990 to 2021, a period marked by largely consistent observational platforms. Several global TC metrics have decreased during this period, with significant decreases …
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The impact of the AMO on multidecadal ENSO variability Open
Multidecadal shifts in El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability have been observed, but it is unclear if this variability is just a random variation in the ENSO cycle or whether it is forced by other modes of climate variability. He…
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Increasing Magnitude of Hurricane Rapid Intensification in the Central and Eastern Tropical Atlantic Open
Rapid intensification (RI) of hurricanes is notoriously difficult to predict and can contribute to severe destruction and loss of life. While past studies examined the frequency of RI occurrence, changes in RI magnitude were not considered…
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Ocean–Atmosphere Dynamical Coupling Fundamental to the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation Open
The North Atlantic has shown large multidecadal temperature shifts during the twentieth century. There is ongoing debate about whether this variability arises primarily through the influence of atmospheric internal variability, through cha…
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Statistical–Dynamical Downscaling Projections of Tropical Cyclone Activity in a Warming Climate: Two Diverging Genesis Scenarios Open
Tropical cyclone (TC) activity is examined using the Columbia Hazard model (CHAZ), a statistical–dynamical downscaling system, with environmental conditions taken from simulations from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (…
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Changes in Atlantic major hurricane frequency since the late-19th century Open
Atlantic hurricanes are a major hazard to life and property, and a topic of intense scientific interest. Historical changes in observing practices limit the utility of century-scale records of Atlantic major hurricane frequency. To evaluat…
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A stable Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in a changing North Atlantic Ocean since the 1990s Open
In contrast to profound North Atlantic property changes, the AMOC was stable on decadal time scales over the past three decades.
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Increased U.S. coastal hurricane risk under climate change Open
Several pathways for how climate change may influence the U.S. coastal hurricane risk have been proposed, but the physical mechanisms and possible connections between various pathways remain unclear. Here, future projections of hurricane a…
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Perspectives on the Health Effects of Hurricanes: A Review and Challenges Open
Hurricanes are devastating natural disasters which dramatically modify the physical landscape and alter the socio-physical and biochemical characteristics of the environment, thus exposing the affected communities to new environmental stre…
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The Atlantic Ocean surface microlayer from 50°N to 50°S is ubiquitously enriched in surfactants at wind speeds up to 13 m s<sup>−1</sup> Open
We report the first measurements of surfactant activity (SA) in the sea surface microlayer (SML) and in subsurface waters (SSW) at the ocean basin scale, for two Atlantic Meridional Transect from cruises 50°N to 50°S during 2014 and 2015. …
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Atlantic tropical cyclones downscaled from climate reanalyses show increasing activity over past 150 years Open
Historical records of Atlantic hurricane activity, extending back to 1851, show increasing activity over time, but much or all of this trend has been attributed to lack of observations in the early portion of the record. Here we use a trop…
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Pacific Modulation of the North Atlantic Storm Track Response to Sudden Stratospheric Warming Events Open
Sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) events have been suggested to be followed by a surface impact, though this response varies between events. Using reanalysis data, we identify two types of tropospheric responses to SSWs: Two thirds of the…
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ECMWF Activities for Improved Hurricane Forecasts Open
Tropical cyclones are some of the most devastating natural hazards and the “three beasts”—Harvey, Irma, and Maria—during the Atlantic hurricane season 2017 are recent examples. The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF)…
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Reconciling roles of sulphate aerosol forcing and internal variability in Atlantic multidecadal climate changes Open
The interdecadal basin-wide warming and cooling cycle of the North Atlantic Ocean, known as the Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV), influences not only the Euro-Atlantic climatic conditions, but also tropical storms and monsoons remot…
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Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillations drive the basin-scale distribution of Atlantic bluefin tuna Open
The presence of Atlantic bluefin tuna in northern European seas is driven by climate variability and ocean temperature.
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Seasonal Tropical Cyclone Forecasting Open
This paper summarizes the forecast methods, outputs and skill offered by twelve agencies for seasonal tropical cyclone (TC) activity around the world. These agencies use a variety of techniques ranging from statistical models to dynamical …
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The Role of Forcings in the Twentieth-Century North Atlantic Multidecadal Variability: The 1940–75 North Atlantic Cooling Case Study Open
Results from a study inspecting the origins of multidecadal variability in the North Atlantic sea surface temperature (NASST) are presented. The authors target in particular the 1940–75 “warm-to-cold” transition, an event that is generally…
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Widespread mangrove damage resulting from the 2017 Atlantic mega hurricane season Open
Comprised of 17 named tropical storms, 6 of which were major hurricanes, the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season ranked as one of the most damaging and costly hurricane seasons on record. In addition to socio-economic impacts, many previous stu…
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Deep Learning Experiments for Tropical Cyclone Intensity Forecasts Open
Reducing tropical cyclone (TC) intensity forecast errors is a challenging task that has interested the operational forecasting and research community for decades. To address this, we developed a deep learning (DL)-based Multilayer Perceptr…
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Changes in tropical cyclones under stabilized 1.5 and 2.0 °C global warming scenarios as simulated by the Community Atmospheric Model under the HAPPI protocols Open
The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) invited the scientific community to explore the impacts of a world in which anthropogenic global warming is stabilized at only 1.5 °C above preindustrial average temperatur…