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Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation • Vol 27 • No 4
Proof of Principle for a Self-Governing Prediction and Forecasting Reward Algorithm
2024
We use Monte Carlo techniques to simulate an organized prediction competition between a group of scientific experts acting under the influence of a "self-governing" prediction reward algorithm. Our aim is to illustrate the advantages of a specific type of rew…
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Algorithm

Sequence of operations for a task

In mathematics and computer science, an algorithm ( ) is a finite sequence of mathematically rigorous instructions, typically used to solve a class of specific problems or to perform a computation. Algorithms are used as specifications for performing calculations and data processing. More advanced algorithms can use conditionals to divert the code execution through various routes (referred to as automated decision-making) and deduce valid inferences (referred to as automated reasoning).

In contrast, a heuristic is an approach to solving problems without well- defined correct or optimal results. For example, although social media recommender systems are commonly called "algorithms", they actually rely on heuristics as there is no truly "correct" recommendation.

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Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation • Vol 27 • No 4
Proof of Principle for a Self-Governing Prediction and Forecasting Reward Algorithm
2024
We use Monte Carlo techniques to simulate an organized prediction competition between a group of scientific experts acting under the influence of a "self-governing" prediction reward algorithm. Our aim is to illustrate the advantages of a specific type of reward distribution rule that is designed to address some of the limitations of traditional forecast scoring rules. The primary extension of this algorithm as compared with standard forecast scoring is that it incorporates measures of both group consensus and que…
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