Predicting Depths of Burst at Denied Access Sites Using Bayesian Data Synthesis Article Swipe
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· 2021
· Open Access
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· DOI: https://doi.org/10.1029/2021gl094397
Anthropogenic radioisotopes are the only definitive signature that a below ground nuclear test has been conducted. The depth at which a test occurs is known to be a critical parameter, affecting not only the migration time for gases to reach the surface but also their subsequent isotopic ratios. Suspected tests typically occur at sites to which the international community has no access, and their suspected location and depth must be computed. Teleseismic methods are typically used for doing this but can have uncertainties larger than a kilometer. Here, we present an alternative approach that uses Bayesian data synthesis to combine information on local topology, geology, the presence of surface deformation, and yield. The method is tested against actual depth of burst data from 36 Soviet tests and 14 in the United States with the mean error to <53 m if the yield can be accurately estimated.
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- Type
- article
- Language
- en
- Landing Page
- https://doi.org/10.1029/2021gl094397
- https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdfdirect/10.1029/2021GL094397
- OA Status
- bronze
- References
- 33
- Related Works
- 10
- OpenAlex ID
- https://openalex.org/W4200015902